Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2008
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KEYS TO THE WHITE HOUSE
Eruca Sativa Obama
Since last week's edition of Keys To The White House, Barack Obama has increased his nat'l lead over John McCain from 5% to 8%. Obama's overall improvement was mirrored by noticeable growth among key Hotline demographic groups, primarily Suburban Sprawlers and Whole Foods Women. The Dem nominee also saw slight increases with McCain Mavericks, while McCain recouped some ground among Winn-Dixie Women.
One week ago, in the sample conducted 10/1-7, Obama led Suburban Sprawlers (college-educated indies) by 7%; in today's release, his margin has more than doubled to 16%. Meanwhile McCain's lead among Whole Foods Women (married, white, college-educated women) basically evaporated this week. The GOP nominee led the group by 15% one week ago, but today McCain holds less than a 1% advantage.
The only good news for McCain lies with Winn-Dixie Women (single, white, non-college women) -- a group he trailed by 11% on 10/7. Today, the AZ Sen. is just 7% behind Obama, halfway back to his 3% deficit of two weeks ago. And among McCain Mavericks (Bush disapprovers), Obama gained 3% while McCain remained static, allowing the IL Sen. to recapture his 40%+ margin of weeks past.
Obama's 48-40% overall lead is his third straight statistically significant margin; last week, the Dem led 45-40%. Today's survey, conducted 10/8-14, queried 2,113 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 2.1%.
For a full explanation of the demographic groups tracked, please see the original Keys To The White House, published 9/17.
The weekly trends below display survey data for the seven days ending in the date specified. For instance, the column headed "9/30" includes survey data from 9/24-30. One exception, the 9/9 column extends for eight days, reflecting data taken 9/2-9.
WH '08 General Election Matchup/ All Voters
Sample ending 10/14 10/7 9/30 9/23 9/16 9/9 Sample size 2113 2119 2116 2129 2125 2449 ------------- Obama/Biden 48% 45% 47% 47% 45% 45% McCain/Palin 40 40 42 43 44 42 Undec 7 9 9 8 9 10
McCain Mavericks/ Bush Disapprovers
Sample ending 10/14 10/7 9/30 9/23 9/16 9/9 Sample size 1456 1442 1428 1434 1369 1615 ------------- Obama/Biden 65% 62% 66% 66% 65% 65% McCain/Palin 23 23 22 23 22 22 Undec 8 9 10 10 11 11
Suburban Sprawlers/ College-Educated Inds
Sample ending 10/14 10/7 9/30 9/23 9/16 9/9 Sample size 167 208 178 169 199 217 ------------- Obama/Biden 47% 42% 51% 40% 43% 40% McCain/Palin 31 35 32 38 39 37 Undec 15 14 15 18 16 18
Whole Foods Women/ White, Married, College-Educated Women
Sample ending 10/14 10/7 9/30 9/23 9/16 9/9 Sample size 265 291 315 337 264 311 ------------- McCain/Palin 46% 51% 47% 45% 47% 42% Obama/Biden 45 36 44 46 42 47 Undec 5 8 8 6 10 11
Winn-Dixie Women/ White, Unmarried, Non-College-Educated Women
Sample ending 10/14 10/7 9/30 9/23 9/16 9/9 Sample size 171 167 162 148 155 199 ------------- Obama/Biden 46% 47% 44% 40% 39% 41% McCain/Palin 39 36 41 47 48 44 Undec 11 10 12 12 11 12