The Hotline - Your Campaign Is Fundamentally Strong

Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2008

DIAGEO/HOTLINE TRACKING

Your Campaign Is Fundamentally Strong

Conducted 9/13-15 by FD; surveyed 909 RVs; margin of error +/- 3.3% (release, 9/16). Party ID Breakdown: 41%D, 36%R, 19%I.

WH '08 General Election Matchup

-               Now 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7
Obama/Biden     46% 44%  45%  44%  45%  44%  45% 44% 44%
McCain/Palin    42  43   43   45   44   46   45  45  44
Undec           10   9   10   10   10    8    9   9  10

-            Now         9/14        9/13        9/12
-            GOP Ind Dem GOP Ind Dem GOP Ind Dem GOP Ind Dem
Obama/Biden   7% 37% 85%  7% 33% 84%  7% 31% 85%  5% 35% 82%
McCain/Palin 84  40   6  86  43   7  86  47   7  89  45  11
Undec         7  16   7   6  18   7   7  19   8   6  19   7

-            Now     9/14    9/13    9/12    9/11    9/10
-            Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom Men Wom
Obama/Biden  43% 48% 42% 47% 43% 48% 39% 48% 40% 49% 41% 46%
McCain/Palin 42  41  46  41  47  39  51  40  49  41  48  44
Undec        11   9   9  10   8  12   8  11  10   9   9   8

Are You Enthusiastically Supporting Him, Certain You Will Vote For Him But Not Enthusiastic, Or Could You Still Change Your Mind?

-                   ObamaVoters          McCainVoters
-                   Now 9/14 9/13 9/12   Now 9/14 9/13 9/12
Enthusiastically    62% 62%  65%  67%    56% 55%  56%  58%
Certain vote for    23  25   24   22     29  30   30   27
Could still change  13  11    9   10     14  14   13   14

Fav/Unfav

-           Now     9/14    9/13    9/12    9/11    9/10
B. Obama    54%/37% 52%/40% 54%/39% 53%/40% 53%/40% 53%/39%
J. McCain   51 /41  54 /40  55 /40  57 /37  56 /38  57 /37
S. Palin    47 /36  48 /36  49 /34  52 /30  51 /29  50 /30
J. Biden    45 /32  45 /32  45 /31  45 /30  44 /30  45 /31

-           Now                     9/14
-           GOP     Ind     Dem     GOP     Ind     Dem
B. Obama    20%/73% 47%/34% 89%/ 6% 20%/74% 47%/36% 85%/11%
J. McCain   87 / 9  51 /33  18 /74  89 / 8  57 /29  20 /74
S. Palin    83 / 8  42 /30  16 /66  84 / 7  48 /28  16 /64
J. Biden    22 /58  36 /30  71 / 9  22 /57  42 /27  68 /10

-           Now             9/14            9/13
-           Men     Wom     Men     Wom     Men     Wom
B. Obama    54%/37% 55%/36% 52%/40% 53%/40% 52%/42% 56%/37%
J. McCain   53 /40  49 /41  56 /38  52 /41  57 /39  52 /41
S. Palin    45 /36  48 /36  48 /35  48 /36  53 /32  47 /35
J. Biden    44 /33  46 /30  43 /35  48 /29  42 /36  47 /26

Bush As POTUS

-           Now 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7
Approve     31% 33%  35%  35%  32%  30%  30% 32% 31%
Disapprove  66  65   63   63   65   67   67  65  66

Direction Of U.S.

-           Now 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7
Right dir.  17% 18%  18%  18%  19%  20%  20% 20% 20%
Wrong dir.  74  72   71   70   71   70   68  69  69

How Prepared Do You Think Palin Is To Serve As POTUS If McCain Became Unable To?

-                   Now 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8
Very prepared       18% 18%  17%  16%  16%  17%  17% 17%
Somewhat prepared   30  32   32   34   33   33   33  32
Somewhat unprepared 14  12   13   13   14   15   15  15
Very unprepared     35  33   33   31   31   31   30  29

Does Palin Seem Like A Different Kind Of Leader Who Offers A Fresh, New Perspective And Inspires Others, Or Does Palin Seem Like Just Another Politician Who Offers No New Ideas And Engages In Negative Politics?

-                          Now 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9
Different kind of leader   53% 55%  53%  55%  55%  56%  55%
Just another politician    36  33   33   32   32   30   30

Which Candidate Do You Think Is More Prepared To Lead The U.S.?

-           Now 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7
J. McCain   50% 52%  52%  54%  52%  52%  50% 51% 51%
B. Obama    38  35   36   35   37   37   39  37  37
Neither      5   5    4    4    4    4    4   4   4
Undec        7   8    9    7    7    7    8   8   8

Which Candidate Do You Think Better Understands The Needs And Priorities Of People Like Yourself?

-           Now 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7
B. Obama    52% 51%  52%  50%  49%  48%  48% 49% 49%
J. McCain   35  37   37   39   39   40   38  37  35
Neither      7   6    6    5    6    6    7   5   6
Undec        6   6    6    6    6    6    6   9  10

Which Candidate Do You Think Would Do The Best Job Handling Health Care?

-           Now 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7
B. Obama    45% 43%  43%  44%  44%  45%  45% 47% 48%
J. McCain   35  38   37   37   36   36   37  39  37
Neither      8   8    8    8    9    8    7   4   4
Undec       11  11   11   11   11   11   11  11  10

Which Candidate Do You Think Would Do The Best Job Handling The Economy?

-           Now 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7
B. Obama    47% 47%  50%  47%  45%  43%  45% 45% 44%
J. McCain   36  40   41   44   43   44   42  40  40
Neither      5   5    4    3    3    3    4   5   5
Undec       11   7    5    6    8   10    9  11  12

Which Candidate Do You Think Would Do The Best Job Handling Nat'l Security?

-           Now 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7
J. McCain   57% 57%  56%  57%  54%  58%  56% 58% 56%
B. Obama    36  34   34   33   34   33   34  35  36
Neither      4   4    5    4    6    4    3   2   2
Undec        3   5    6    6    6    5    6   5   6

Which Candidate Do You Think Would Do The Best Job Handling U.S. Energy Policies?

-           Now 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7
B. Obama    50% 46%  47%  45%  45%  44%  44% 43% 42%
J. McCain   38  42   44   44   43   43   43  41  42
Neither      3   3    1    1    *    2    4   5   5
Undec        9   9    8   11   11   12   10  10  11