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Thursday, Sept. 11, 2008


BATTLE FOR THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

Battle And Hum

Since last week's North Star edition of Battle for the Electoral College, The Hotline has published 19 polls from 17 states, including 12 battleground surveys. In the process, Barack Obama's commanding 116 EV lead on 9/4 has shrunk to just 46 EVs. The IL Sen. now has 292 EVs to John McCain's 246 EVs; one week ago Obama led 327 EVs to 211 EVs.

This week's 35 EV shift came from three states: FL, MO and ND. Quinnipiac Univ. this a.m. released a poll of FL LVs showing McCain with a solid 50-43% lead, swinging FL's 27 EVs from lean Obama to solid McCain. In MO, a CNN/Time poll released last p.m. showed McCain/Palin with a 5% lead in MO, causing its 11 EVs to shift from lean Obama to lean McCain. Obama, however, recouped 3 EVs from an ND survey completed 8/27 by DFM Research which gave him a narrow 3% lead and pushed ND's 3 EVs from lean McCain to lean Obama.

What's more, two states this week shifted from solid to lean within the candidate totals, while three states moved out of the WH '00/WH '04 projections with their first general election surveys. A new Howey-Gauge poll completed 8/30 showed McCain with just a 2% lead in IN, moving it from solid McCain to lean McCain. Meanwhile, a new Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. poll fielded 9/4-7 showed a tightening contest in NJ -- Obama now leads by just 6%, down from his 16% margin on 6/22.

Initial WH surveys by CNN/Time and Mark Blankenship Enterprises favored McCain in VA and WV, respectively; both states had previously been classified in the Bush/Bush projection. Likewise, the first MD poll since Battle began showed Obama with a comfortable 14% margin.

All other polls this week corroborated previous findings. Two polls in both MI and PA confirmed these states as lean Obama, as did surveys in OH, NH and WI. New polls in CO and NC kept those battlegrounds as lean McCain, while new polls verified AK and AL as McCain strongholds.

As always, the chart includes all WH '08 state polling data published in The Hotline since 5/23. The most recent poll, the one used to identify each state's winner, is listed on the same line as the state symbol with older surveys below. In addition, only the most recent poll from a pollster is retained for each state. For the 8 states (including DC) without current polling data available, the winner has been estimated based on WH '00 and WH '04 results. For a full explanation of the symbols in the far right column see the key below the chart.

Electoral Distribution

McCAIN STATES               OBAMA STATES
M  Lean McCain    64        O  Lean Obama    107
M+ Solid McCain  173        O+ Solid Obama   144
M* Bush/Bush       9        O* Gore/Kerry     41
Total            246        Total            292

State-By-State Polling

St EVs McC OBA POLLSTER       DATE       SAMPLE   +/-  LEAD
AL  9  55% 35% CapSurvResCent 9/3-9       606 LVs 4.0% M+
AK  3  54  35  Ivan Moore (D) 8/30-9/2    500 LVs 4.4  M+
-      57  33  AmeriViewpt(R) 9/2         400 RVs 4.9  M+
-      40  45  Hays Res. Grp. 8/6-7       400 LVs 4.9  O
-      51  41  Research 2000  7/14-16     600 LVs 4.0  M+
-      44  42  GlblStrgGrp(D) 6/5-10      600 LVs 4.0  M
AR  6          Results        '00/'04    Bush/Bush     M*
AZ 10  40  30  AZ State Univ. 8/14-16     402 RVs 4.9  M+
-      47  41  Mason-Dixon    8/13-15     400 LVs 4.9  M
-      50  39  Rocky Mt. Poll 5/12-20     630 RVs 3.9  M+
CA 55  39  48  PPIC           8/12-19    1047 LVs 3.0  O+
-      30  54  Field Poll     7/8-14      672 LVs 3.8  O+
-      40  47  LATimes/KTLA   5/20-21     705 RVs 3.7  O
CO  9  47  45  TarranceGrp(R) 9/2-3       495 LVs 4.4  M
-      47  46  CNN/Time/ORC   8/24-26     670 RVs 3.8  M
-      40  43  Hill Resrch(R) 8/23-24     553 LVs 4.2  O
-      39  44  Suffolk Univ.  8/21-24     450 LVs 4.6  O
-      47  46  Quinnipiac Unv 8/15-21    1060 LVs 3.0  M
-      43  46  Mason-Dixon    8/13-15     400 LVs 4.9  O
-      44  41  POS(R)/RBI(D)  8/11-13     500 RVs 4.4  M
-      41  45  Frederick (D)  7/16-22     700 LVs 3.7  O
CT  7  35  57  Research 2000  6/30-7/2    600 LVs 4.0  O+
-      35  56  Quinnipiac Unv 6/26-29    2437 LVs 2.0  O+
DE  3          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
DC  3          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
FL 27  50  43  Quinnipiac Unv 9/5-9      1032 LVs 3.1  M+
-      44  45  Mason-Dixon    8/25-26     625 RVs 3.9  O
-      49  42  StrtegicVis(R) 8/22-24    1200 LVs 2.8  M+
-      42  39  KitchensGrp(D) 8/18-21     605 RVs 4.0  M
-      47  46  ARG (R)        8/18-20     600 LVs 4.0  M
-      45  40  Fabrizio (R)   7/20-28    1600 RVs 2.5  M+
GA 15  51  43  StrtegicVis(R) 6/27-29     800 LVs 3.5  M+
HI  4          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
ID  4  52  29  GregSmithAssoc 8/18-22     600 LVs 4.0  M+
-      53  37  Research 2000  7/28-30     500 LVs 4.4  M+
IL 21          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
IN 11  45  43  Howey-Gauge    8/29-30     600 LVs 4.0  M
-      47  38  IN Leg Insight 5/27-6/1    601 RVs 4.0  M+
IA  7  40  55  CNN/Time/ORC   8/31-9/2    828 RVs 3.4  O+
-      43  50  Univ. of IA    8/4-13      617 LVs 3.9  O
KS  6  49  36  TargetPoint(R) 6/27-7/1   3004 RVs 1.8  M+
-      45  41  CperSecrest(D) 6/5-8       808 LVs 3.4  M
-      51  40  Research 2000  6/2-4       600 LVs 4.0  M+
KY  8  56  35  Research 2000  7/28-30     600 LVs 4.0  M+
-      50  31  V/C Resrch (R) 6/15-17     601 LVs 4.0  M+
LA  9  52  36  SoMedia/OpnRsr 6/26-28     600 LVs 4.0  M+
ME^ 4  31  51  CrticalInsghts 6/1-27      602 RVs 4.0  O+
-      32  46  PanAtlanticSMS 6/10-18     400 Adl 4.9  O+
MD 10  38  52  Gonzales       8/29-9/5    833 RVs 3.4  O+
MA 12  38  47  Suffolk Univ.  7/31-8/3    400 RVs 4.9  O
MI 17  45  49  CNN/Time/ORC   9/7-9       966 RVs 3.2  O
-      44  45  StrtegicVis(R) 9/5-7      1200 LVs 2.8  O
-      41  43  EPIC-MRA       8/18-21     600 LVs 4.0  O
-      39  46  Selzer & Co.   8/17-20     600 LVs 4.0  O
-      42  46  Quinnipiac Unv 7/14-22    1684 LVs 2.4  O
-      39  46  GQR (D)        7/14-21     764 LVs 3.5  O
MN 10  41  53  CNN/Time/ORC   8/31-9/2    742 RVs 3.6  O+
-      38  48  PRN/Univ of MN 8/7-17      763 LVs 3.5  O+
-      44  46  Quinnipiac Unv 7/14-22    1261 LVs 2.8  O
MS  6  51  42  Research 2000  7/21-23     600 LVs 4.0  M+
MO 11  50  45  CNN/Time/ORC   9/7-9       940 RVs 3.2  M
-      43  48  Research 2000  7/7-10      800 LVs 3.5  O
MT  3  47  39  Mason-Dixon    5/19-21     625 LVs 3.9  M+
NE^ 5  57  29  Research 2000  5/19-21     600 LVs 4.0  M+
NV  5  44  49  CNN/Time/ORC   8/24-26     625 RVs 3.9  O
-      43  44  Research 2000  8/18-20     600 LVs 4.0  O
-      46  39  Mason-Dixon    8/13-15     400 LVs 4.9  M
NH  4  45  51  CNN/Time/ORC   9/7-9       899 RVs 3.3  O
-      45  46  ARG (R)        8/18-20     600 LVs 4.0  O
-      43  46  UNH SurveyCntr 7/11-20     475 LVs 4.5  O
-      42  39  Dartmouth Clge 4/28-5/2    401 RVs 4.9  M
NJ 15  41  47  FDU/PublicMind 9/4-7       872 LVs 3.3  O
-      41  51  Quinnipiac Unv 8/4-10     1468 LVs 2.6  O+
-      36  50  MonmouthU/Gan. 7/17-21     698 LVs 3.7  O+
-      38  47  StrtegicVis(R) 7/11-13     800 LVs 3.5  O+
NM  5  40  53  CNN/Time/ORC   8/24-26     659 RVs 3.8  O+
-      45  41  Mason-Dixon    8/13-15     400 LVs 4.9  M
NY 31  39  47  Siena College  8/11-14     627 RVs 3.9  O+
-      36  57  Quinnipiac Unv 7/31-8/4   1353 LVs 2.7  O+
-      32  51  New York Times 6/6-11      931 RVs 3.2  0+
NC 15  49  46  GarinHrtYng(D) 9/5-7       605 LVs 4.0  M
-      47  44  GQR (D)        8/20-26     852 LVs 3.4  M
-      46  40  Tel Opinion(R) 8/14-17     600 LVs 4.0  M
-      47  43  Research 2000  7/28-30     600 LVs 4.0  M
ND  3  40  43  DFM Research   8/23-27     400 LVs 4.9  O
-      45  42  Research 2000  7/21-23     500 LVs 4.4  M
OH 20  44  49  Quinnipiac Unv 9/5-9      1367 LVs 2.7  O
-      45  47  CNN/Time/ORC   8/31-9/2    685 RVs 3.7  O
-      42  41  Columbus Disp. 8/12-21    2102 RVs 2.1  M
OK  7  46  24  Sooner Poll    7/19-23     750 LVs 3.6  M+
-      52  38  Research 2000  6/9-11      600 LVs 4.0  M+
OR  7          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
PA 21  45  48  Quinnipiac Unv 9/5-9      1001 LVs 3.1  O
-      45  47  StrtegicVis(R) 9/5-7      1200 LVs 2.8  O
-      43  48  CNN/Time/ORC   8/24-26     669 RVs 3.8  O
-      41  46  Susquehanna    8/11-14     700 LVs 3.7  O
-      36  44  F&M College    8/4-10      641 RVs 3.9  O+
RI  4  30  51  Brown Univ.    8/18-20     548 RVs 4.2  O+
-      25  53  Opinion Factor 6/18-27     500 RVs 4.4  O+
SC  8  53  40  Research 2000  7/22-23     500 LVs 4.4  M+
SD  3          Results        '00/'04    Bush/Bush     M*
TN 11  51  36  AyresMcHnry(R) 8/10-12     500 RVs 4.4  M+
TX 34  43  33  Univ. of TX    7/18-30     668 RVs 3.8  M+
-      52  36  Baselice (R)   5/20-25    1005 RVs 3.1  M+
UT  5  62  23  Mason-Dixon    8/13-15     400 LVs 4.9  M+
-      57  29  Dan Jones Assc 6/16-19     405 RVs 4.9  M+
VT  3          Results        '00/'04    Gore/Kerry    O*
VA 13  50  46  CNN/Time/ORC   9/7-9       920 RVs 3.2  M
WA 11  35  47  Elway Poll     7/27-31     405 RVs 4.9  O+
-      37  48  StrtegicVis(R) 7/25-27     800 LVs 3.5  O+
-      37  47  Moore Info (R) 7/9-10      400 RVs 4.9  O+
-      39  47  Strtegs360 (D) 6/21-26    1200 RVs 2.8  O+
WV  5  44  39  Blankenship    9/5-8       432 RVs 4.7  M
WI 10  43  46  StrtegicVis(R) 9/5-7       800 LVs 3.5  O
-      38  44  WPRI           8/3-4       600 LVs 4.0  O
-      39  50  Quinnipiac Unv 7/14-22    1094 LVs 3.0  O+
-      37  50  Univ. of WI    6/8-10      506 LVs 4.4  O+
WY  3  62  25  Mason-Dixon    8/13-15     400 LVs 4.9  M+
-      53  40  Research 2000  5/20-21     500 LVs 4.4  M+

Key

SYMBOL STATES
M      McCain Leads Most Recent Poll Within The M.O.E.
M+     McCain Leads Most Recent Poll Outside The M.O.E.
M*     No Current Polling Data AND Voted Bush Twice
O      Obama Leads Most Recent Poll Within The M.O.E.
O+     Obama Leads Most Recent Poll Outside The M.O.E.
O*     No Current Polling Data AND Voted Both Gore & Kerry

^Note: This chart assumes ME and NE each award electoral votes to a single candidate.

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