The Hotline - Kitzhaber And His Mullet On The Air

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

OREGON

Kitzhaber And His Mullet On The Air

Ex-DoJ enviro atty Steve Novick (D) is up with a new ad by Eichenbaum & Assoc., featuring ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D). Full script "Kitzhaber":

NOVICK: "I'm Steve Novick and I approve this message." KITZHABER: "I'm John Kitzhaber and I approve of Steve Novick. Negative politics as usual? Or something different? Steve Novick is not a typical politician and he's not running a typical campaign. Steve is standing up for principle and that's why Oregon Democrats are standing up for Steve. Oregon teachers are supporting Steve. So are papers across the state. I think Steve Novick is the only candidate we can count on for real health care reform. Steve Novick, the cure for politics as usual" (release, 5/12).

The Best Laid Plans Of Mice And Chuck ...

Politico's Kraushaar writes, "The success and resilience of Novick's campaign has surprised establishment Democrats, many of whom rallied behind state House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) early in the process and expected him to coast to the nomination." Dem OR pollster Lisa Grove: "Steve's a very authentic person, and he hasn't tried to hide his rationale and approach. He's a what-you-see-is-what-you-get kind of guy. What has confounded people the most is that he has been more disciplined and raised more money than people expected. ... The legislature in Oregon is by no means a beloved institution, and it hasn't been a launching pad for individuals in this state. You have the establishment behind you, but what are they really doing for you? Just because a governor they like is supporting you won't necessarily have an impact."

If Novick wins the 5/20 primary, "it will mark the first time" that the DSCC under Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) "has involved itself in a Democratic primary without seeing its favored candidate become the nominee." Merkley's camp "argues that Novick would enter a general election as a serious underdog" against Sen. Gordon Smith (R) -- a point nat'l Dems "have privately echoed." Merkley spokesperson Matt Canter "said Novick's base is from the liberal heart of downtown Portland, which he likened to the 'inner circle of the Kremlin.' Canter said that Novick's outspoken personality might play well among Democratic activists but could backfire in a general election. Novick has run an unapologetically liberal campaign and has advocated a handful of tax increases on the wealthy -- including a bump in the capital gains tax."

DSCC spokesperson Matthew Miller said that with Merkley outspending Novick on TV in the final weeks, it should help him win over undecided voters. Merkley's camp "argues that Smith's decision to air ads targeting him before the primary shows that Smith would prefer to run against Novick in a general election." Merkley: "It's been very clear Smith has been doing everything he could to avoid running against me in the general. He's determined not to face me in the general" (5/13).