Friday, May 2, 2008
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CLINTON
A Series Of Fortunate Events
After "weeks in which her candidacy was seen by many party leaders as a long shot at best," Hillary Clinton's advisers "argued strenuously" 5/1 that "the outlook was turning in her favor in a way that gave her a real chance." Clinton "advisers acknowledged that the path to the nomination was steadily uphill, and to some extent dependent upon factors outside their control --- yet it was a path nonetheless, they said."
First, Clinton must win the IN primary "as a means of demonstrating to supporters and donors that she is building on momentum" after PA, they said, "and she must run strongly enough" in NC to avoid the "perception that she did no better than an even split. Then she must win in a state that catches people by surprise," like OR or MT.
The Clinton camp must also persuade the DNC to seat at least some of the delegates she won in the disputed votes in MI and FL. It must also persuade superdelegates to include the popular votes cast in FL, and maybe in MI, in calculating the overall tally.
Clinton strategist Geoff Garin said the campaign hoped to end the primary season on 6/3 "lifted by a series of victories, and by coming close in the pledged delegate totals and the popular vote -- though he declined to say what close would be." Garin: "We'll know it when we see it" (Nagourney/Hulse, New York Times, 5/2).
Five For Fighting
Five superdelegates announced their support for Clinton 5/1. Superdelegate/ CT AFL-CIO pres John Olsen endorsed Clinton, and she also picked up four NY superdelegates--all add-ons named at the state's convention: NY AG Andrew Cuomo, ex-Manhattan Borough Pres. C. Virginia Fields, Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli and Assemblywoman Carmen Arroyo (release, 5/1).
A Star Is Born
The Indianapolis Star today endorsed Clinton, saying that Barack Obama "offers an attractive vision for the way things could be," but Clinton "offers a clear-eyed view of the way things are." The Star adds, "Clinton offers a clear-eyed view of the way things are. She offers nuanced positions on how to address the war in Iraq, trade with China and economic expansion. Her depth of knowledge is remarkable."
"As impressive as Obama appears, he is still in his first term in the U.S. Senate, and only four years ago was serving as an Illinois state senator. His inexperience in high office is a liability. Clinton, in contrast, is well prepared for the rigors of the White House. She is tough, experienced and realistic about what can and cannot be accomplished on the world stage... Clinton is the better choice, based on her experience and grasp of major issues, to confront those challenges" (5/2).
And The Kennedy's Know Savage Beatings!
As a "growing chorus, even in her own party, question the merits of a gas tax holiday," Clinton speaking in Jeffersonvillie, IN, 5/1 said she wanted to get her Congressional colleagues "on the record" on the plan, and determine who is "with us or against us." Clinton, on the rising prices at the pump: "I know it probably makes you sick to your stomach. So we need a short term and a long term strategy."
Clinton was introduced at the stop by Robert Kennedy Jr, "who gave a firebrand speech that went on longer than 12 minutes." RFK Jr: "I was so happy this week when she stood up and took on the oil companies in this country."
Kennedy, who acknowledged that some in his family have "decided to do the wrong thing" and back Obama, also defended Clinton's character, noting how she endured "one of the most savage beatings of any public figure in my lifetime" from the right-wing, and still won over GOP areas in NY State. RFK Jr: "They got a good look ... at Hillary Clinton and they know that all those negatives that have been drilled into them for 10 years by the right-wing Republicans, that it's not true. This is a leader who is going to be one of the most extraordinary presidents in our history" (Memoli, National Journal/NBC, 5/1).
More Gas
Clinton "campaigning in central and southern" IN, "championed her plan as a boon to commuters, truckers and summer vacationers." And at an event in Jeffersonville, IN, she "amplified her frequent pledge to introduce legislation to suspend the gas tax, saying she wanted to put members of Congress on the spot on the issue" (Bosman, New York Times, 5/2).
Clinton "told supporters that she believes in her plan because people need immediate 'relief' from record gas prices." Clinton, at Terre Haute South Vigo High School: "This is not some abstract problem. This is a real-life challenge. And if we don't do something to take this on, I think we're breaking faith with people who expect their federal government to actually help them" (Helman, "Political Intelligence," 5/1).
He'll Be In The Harlem Wing Of The WH
ABC's McFadden caught up with Clinton on the trail in IN. Some highlights:
On Obama saying her gas tax policy would save most Americans only $28 in the course of the summer: "We look at it and see more of a $70 savings. Now, maybe for some people that's not very much, but if you're counting every penny -- and most people are today -- that can be significant."
On New York Times' Friedman saying the gas tax proposal is "so unworthy of the people aspiring to lead the nation that it takes your breath away": "Well, that's a really elitist view people because are getting from day to day, paycheck to paycheck."
McFadden: "On day one, where is your husband's office?"
Clinton: "I don't think he's going to have an office. I think he's going to stay very focused on his foundation. He's going to be involved in the work of the Clinton Foundation, which has done so much good around the world. He will certainly be in and out of the White House a lot because as one of my closest advisers, I will want to bounce ideas off of him. I will ask him to take on special functions on behalf of our country."
McFadden: "Barack Obama gave what is widely seen as a pivotal speech on race. I wonder why you haven't done
the same thing about gender."
Clinton: "I think I live that every day. I think I'm exemplifying it. I think I'm helping to change people's understanding of the multidimensional roles of the women."
Asked if Obama has gone far enough to satisfy you that Rev. Wright does not represent his point of view: "Well, it's not me. It's up to voters to determine what they make of all of this. ... Reverend Wright's comments were deeply objectionable" ("Nightline," 5/1).
Kill Bill Vol. 2
"O'Reilly Factor" aired part two of Clinton's interview with FNC's O'Reilly last night. Some highlights:
Clinton, asked if Iran is the most dangerous country vis-a-vis the U.S.: "I believe it's one of the dangers. ... I think it is in combination with the other threats we face. Because clearly, if Iran were to ever obtain a nuclear weapon, that would be unbelievably bad for us and the world."
On Iraq: "Our remaining in Iraq undermines our capacity to deal with all of our other problems. See, my shorthand is we need to end the war in Iraq and win the war in Afghanistan. I still believe that is the principal threat ... because it is the haven of the terrorists against us."
Clinton, on immigration: "It's broken. I share the frustration. I have voted for tougher border controls. I've voted to put more money, more personnel, even a physical barrier where appropriate. I'm 100 percent in favor of tightening our borders, of enforcing the laws against employers, of going after the kind of abuses that we see in the job market. We have a broken immigration system that has gotten caught up in this political partisan wrangling."
If He Could Turn Back Time...
O'Reilly: "I've got to let you go, because I have to go out and campaign."
Clinton: "What are you running for?"
O'Reilly: "I'm running for my life. This is the most fun interview you've ever done, I know it is. I can just tell."
Clinton: "I was going to say, it's the most fun interview you've ever done."
O'Reilly: "No, I interviewed Cher one time. And that was just a blast" (FNC, 5/1).
Well, If Laura Ingraham And Dick Morris Say So...
Laura Ingraham: "It was truly one of the more revealing interviews that Hillary's ever done" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 5/1).
Clinton supporter/ex-WH special counsel Lanny Davis, to O'Reilly: "The standard that Hillary Clinton said in an interview such as yours is to be direct, to hold the position, to stand up and make her arguments in the face of tough pressure from someone like Bill O'Reilly. And that's what people want in a leader who's president" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 5/1).
O'Reilly: "Hillary Clinton is very professional. She's in control of her presentation, unlike some other politicians who are what we call 'managed.' She's not. She's confident in her positions. Tonight is, I think, even more intense than last night. ... But I have to say that Hillary Clinton stood there, answered the questions. Sometimes she dodged, as they all do. But it was riveting" ("On the Record," 5/1).
Dick Morris: "I thought that she was really good. I thought that she showed a broad grasp of the issues, she was combative, she was combative without being surly and sarcastic, but I think O'Reilly did a fabulous job. He was on top of her. He was all over her" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 5/1).
The Rendell Litmus Test: Part Bayh
Indianapolis Star's Tully writes, Joe Andrew's defection "is raising questions about the effectiveness" of Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) as a Clinton surrogate. Andrews "is a political pro and no doubt understands how damaging his announcement is for Bayh." Many state Dems "have privately complained about feeling pressure from the Bayh camp to support Clinton, or at least to not endorse Obama. Others believe Bayh has lost touch with up-and-coming" IN Dem pols during his time in DC (5/2).
But Boston Globe's Helman writes, Bayh has secured for Clinton key endorsements from mayors in the Dem strongholds of northwest IN, despite the "region's proximity to Obama's hometown of Chicago. He has sent top staff members to help run Clinton's campaign. He has vouched for Clinton's 'spine of steel'" in the first TV ad run by her campaign. And he has lobbied "undecided local leaders across the state and leaned on members" of IN's congressional delegation. Hammond mayor/Clinton supporter Thomas McDermott: "In my case, it was very, very persuasive when Evan called me. Nobody wants to be on the opposite side of Evan Bayh in Indiana, because he's so respected" (5/2).
Clinton "brought her blue-collar message" to the working-class city of Terre Haute, IN, on 5/1 "and urged voters to send their own message to the nation" on 5/6. "After a string of critical victories, Clinton
is hoping for another" in IN, "where she is in a familiar back-against-the-wall, do-or-die, must-win, pick-another-appropriate-cliche situation." She "laced her 30-minute speech with pledges to improve health care, make college more affordable and create new jobs," at one point declaring: "As I've said across the state, my campaign is about jobs, jobs and jobs" (Borowski, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 5/2)
For Clinton, winning IN "would let her press her claim to party elders that she's the more-electable candidate in the fall" (Cooper, Wall Street Journal, 5/2).
The Rendell Litmus Test: Part Easley
If candidates go where they know they'll win, then Hillary Clinton has the western part of NC "shored up" for the 5/6 primary. The entire Clinton clan has visited NC's "mountain region over the last two months. That may not appear to mean much -- the region is less populous than the rest of the state and skewed more towards a Clinton demographic of older, more rural, and primarily white voters -- but in the last few weeks Barack Obama has been losing ground in the Tar Heel state, where his win was almost assured at one point" (Richards, Time.com, 5/2).
NC Gov. Mike Easley (D) was in the "Situation Room" last night.
Easley, asked if HRC can win NC: "Yes, she can. I don't know if we're going to get there. I hope we are. We can just keep trying. I don't have a machine to put together out there, like some other states do. All I can do is go out, introduce her to the people I know, and let her tell her story."
CNN's Blitzer: "Governor Rendell delivered in Pennsylvania. Governor Strickland delivered in Ohio. The pressure is on you right now to deliver in North Carolina."
Easley: "When you have got a candidate as strong as Hillary Clinton, you ought to be able to deliver. And I know that. But I'm starting down a little bit further than they were. I don't have the operation that Ed Rendell had. ... But I promise you this. We're going to working like the dickens down here to get her elected" (CNN, 5/1).
If Only Virginia Kelley Was Still Around
"Sporting a well-tailored suit and arriving in a chauffeured black car, Bill Clinton is quietly working to win over small-town crowds with a populist message: Don't diss Wal-Mart shoppers." At "one of a dizzying series of appearances this week on his wife's behalf" in rural NC, B. Clinton "scoffed at an unnamed 'snooty' columnist who had poked fun at his wooing of ordinary working folk." Clinton: "They think we're dumber than we are. I grew up in a place like this. I know people here are as smart as anywhere else. They haven't figured that out yet."
While B. Clinton's "gaffes have been frequently spotlighted in the national media, he appears to be building good will among rural voters, who are vital to keeping his wife's campaign alive. And although Clinton's rock star appeal may have faded since his own candidate days, the 11 small communities he visited in North Carolina this week were thrilled to have a political celebrity in their midst" (Milligan, Boston Globe, 5/1).
UV Defection
• Clinton "dismissed Andrew's criticism" that this fight is hurting the party in her "Nightline" interview. Clinton: "Anyone who believes this is bad for the party, I just think is not paying attention. Because the level of enthusiasm to be part of this process is, from my perspective, is helping us build a stronger and deeper Democratic base."
• Clinton: "I'm picking up momentum every single day. I think this has been good for the Democratic Party. ... Why anybody would want to short circuit that I don't understand, because I think it's giving us a very firm base to go into the fall election."
• Asked if Andrew called her before the announcement: "No, I didn't hear from him. ... I haven't spoken to him" (ABC, 5/1).
• Clinton was "jolted... by the defection" (AP, 5/2).
• CNN's Dobbs, on Andrew's Clinton defection: "This may be the most betrayed political candidate I've seen in a long time" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," 5/1).
• Andrew's "cited Clinton's push for a gas tax holiday as 'the straw that broke the camel's back' in his defection," but Clinton comm dir Howard Wolfson "said he did not expect a stampede of superdelegates to Obama's side over the issue. Wolfson: "I don't think it's hurting us" (DeFrank, New York Daily News, 5/2).
That Horse, Ben Chandler? He's Injured.
Hillary "took a short break from campaigning" in IN 5/1 to visit her KY HQ. While there, Clinton "revealed her sentimental choice" for 5/3's "Run for the Roses -- the filly Eight Belles." Clinton: "I want everybody to place a little money on the filly." Clinton also met with the editorial board at the Louisville Courier-Journal, "then took time to thank her supporters and volunteers" at her campaign HQ.
Clinton KY chair Jerry Lundergan "said Clinton was upbeat and predicted" she will be strong in KY. He said the state "will draw considerable attention from" all the Clintons after the 5/6 primaries in IN and NC. Lundergan: "The senator and the president and Chelsea will be in Kentucky almost as permanent residents" (AP, 5/2).
Yours, Forever, And Always, Mehdi Danesh-Yazdi
Iran has lodged a formal protest at the UN, saying Clinton's comments that the U.S. would "totally obliterate" them if they nuked Israel were "a flagrant violation" of the UN charter. Iran dep ambass to the UN Mehdi Danesh-Yazdi "sent a letter of protest" 4/30 saying Clinton's comments were "provocative, unwarranted and irresponsible," adding: "I wish to reiterate my government's position that the Islamic Republic of Iran has no intention to attack any other nation."
For their part, the Clinton camp "brushed off the criticism." Clinton spokesperson Doug Hattaway: "That's a curious statement coming from a provocative and irresponsible regime" (Fathi, New York Times, 5/2).
What Are Her Chances, Doc?
"Buoyed by her convincing win" in PA, Clinton has been campaigning intensively" before IN and NC's contests next week. "She's greeted by large crowds who respond enthusiastically to her plans for improving the faltering economy, and several polls out this week suggest she would be the stronger candidate" to face John McCain "this fall, both nationally and in important swing states" (Fouhy, AP, 5/2). The talking heads weigh in:
• MSNBC's Matthews: "I'm thinking that if Hillary wins in Indiana, that's a win. We don't get too clever about it. There's no spread here" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 5/1).
• Politico's Simon, on what Clinton has to do to "break open" the "juggernaut" of Obama: "I think Indiana is a good state for her. I think it's going to be a very hard state for Barack Obama to win. Indiana, unlike the other states that border Illinois, like Wisconsin and Iowa and even Missouri, is a totally different state. It's a much more conservative state. It's a lunchpail state. It's a rural state. And ... though we always talk about the Chicago media market going into Indiana, that doesn't mean everyone who sees you likes you. I think Barack Obama's going to have a tough time" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 5/1).
• NBC's Mitchell, on what Clinton needs from NC and IN: "I think that she needs to win both states ... to blow it open. She needs to win Indiana to survive and keep on going. She needs to win both to really shake the inevitability."
•
MSNBC's Matthews: "She's headed toward the nomination if she wins both, you're saying."
• Mitchell: "I think possibly yes" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 5/1).