Friday, May 2, 2008
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INDIANA (5/6 PRIMARY)
Yes I've Gotta Have Faith, Faith, Faith
More than 10K people per day have been casting early ballots this week across IN. The more than 113K votes counted through noon on 5/1 "easily surpassed" the 57K absentee votes from the '04 primary. Marion Co. Clerk Beth White said the nearly 9K people who have voted early already "outpace recent elections," and she expects it to pick up" even more this weekend. A group of local pastors is organizing a massive get-out-the-vote effort. Rev. Charles Harrison said he and other pastors plan to bus people from 5 locations and from up to 100 churches to Downtown after Sunday services. Harrison said the predominately black Concerned Clergy and Ministries on the Move, and churches like Eastern Star and Light of the World, each of which has a congregation of more than 10K, are involved in the effort.
Organizers said the goal is not to help any particular candidate. However, a strong mobilization of black churches "is likely to benefit" Barack Obama, who has "dominated" the black vote in other states (O'Shaughnessy, Indianapolis Star, 5/2).
Harrison: "This is putting our faith into action. It's the biggest mobilization effort I've ever seen, and I've been here 15 years" (Tackett, Chicago Tribune's "The Swamp", 5/2).
On The Tube
Indianapolis Star's Ruthhart, asked if the SCOTUS decision about voter IDs will have an impact on 5/6: "Well, we've had it for seven elections now here. The Supreme Court decision finally came down. I don't think we're looking for a huge fall-out out of that. I think folks are getting pretty used to that. Had it gone the other way, I think we might have seen a little more chaos amongst poll workers who are trained in the requirements of that law, and if that was suddenly thrown out, that could have made for an interesting primary election" ("On the Record," FNC, 5/1).
I Can't Make Up My Mind, I Ain't Wastin' No More Time, But Here I Go Again
Superdelegate/Ex-DNC chair Joe Andrew switches his support on 5/1 from Hillary Clinton to Obama. Andres "said superdelegates "should make a decision sooner rather than later.'" Reps. Joe Donnelly (D) Brad Ellsworth (D), and Peter Visclosky (D), whose counties include counties surrounding Tippecanoe County, are IN's undecided superdelegates. Ellsworth: "I don't believe the superdelegates should overturn the will of the voters, so if it comes to the convention, I am inclined to support the candidate they choose."
Visclosky press sec. Jacob Ritvo said Visclosky is not doing interviews about his superdelegate decision. Donnelly "won't be making his decision" until after the primary. But in on 5/1 said he "would consider" the pledged delegate count, the popular vote, and how the nominees fared in his district (Schneider, Lafayette Journal and Courier, 5/2).
Chaos Theory
Several factors suggest that GOPers "may be attracted" to the Dem primary this year, including an open-primary, a settled nominating race on the GOP side and a downticket slate that "includes few cliffhanger races" to interest the GOP faithful. Dem Chair Dan Parker says GOP turnout in the Dem primary could reach 15%; Obama officials say they expect GOPers could make up 5% of the total. IN's GOP rejects the "Chaos scheme." IN GOP Chair Murray Clark: "Voting for Democrats is not a habit I want our voters getting into." Today, Obama's camp will introduce 3 prominent GOPers who are supporting the campaign: Gov. Mitch Daniels aide John Clark, ex-Nixon atty William Ruckelshaus, and NFU pres. Jim Benham.
The bigger sign of a changed strategy is the way the Obama camp is applying a grass-roots organizational zeal to courting GOPers. The best example: Hamilton County, a suburban enclave north of Indianapolis that delivered 72% of its vote to Pres. Bush in '04. This week, the Obama camp opened its third office there (Cooper, Wall Street Journal, 5/2).
Tonight The Stars Revolt
Wall Street Journal's Strassel writes: "As the economy has slowed and home values have slipped, state and local governments have been raising taxes to cover revenue shortfalls. This has squeezed middle-class households, just as surely as higher gas and food prices, or rising medical costs." IN voters "are near revolt, last year throwing out 21 mayors in primaries, many for failing to stem out-of-control property taxes." This bitterness was unacknowledged by the Dem candidates as they "have trudged around the state."
"The more economically anxious voters are, the more they fear a tax hike. Soaring local taxes have pushed the issue to the front of angry voters' minds, where it threatens to overshadow Democratic arguments that more federal money is necessary for such initiatives as health care." John McCain's challenge "is to bring the risk home to voters. This will involve moving beyond the broad Republican antitax line into a more specific message, one that outlines the dangers of any tax hikes ata time of economic stress" (5/2).
Everybody Knows A Little Place Called Kokomo
Kokomo is the type of battleground, 85% white and heavily blue collar, where Obama has had trouble with Clinton. Kokomo resembles many MI cities with auto plants, strip malls and a "quaint downtown that goes to bed early." Kokomo's unemployment rate of 7.2% is higher than IN's jobless rate of 5.1%. In 4/08, Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) told MI business people about IN's efforts to lure businesses with lower taxes and less regulation. Interest in the campaign "appears to have caused" a spike in voter registration in Kokomo and surrounding Howard County. There are 63K registered voters- almost 3K more than in '04 (Christoff/Gray, Detroit Free Press, 5/2).
He Who Sits On Pots Of Money Is High On Pot
Time's Calabresi writes: "Both sides are focusing on one key battleground"- CD 1, "which holds 20% to 25% of the likely Dem primary vote. The district in theory, should be Obama's. It's almost entirely in the Chicago media orbit and it has been exposed to Obama's political career as long as any part of the country. It is disproportionately weighted to groups that support him, with 87% of the population urban and 18% of it black." The mayor of Gary, the largest city in the district, "has endorsed Obama. Clinton's local surrogates just complained that Gary high schools have been using tax dollars to bus voting-ages kids to the poliing places for early voting field trips."
Clinton is "pushing back. In the southern and eastern portions of the district there's a big contingent of blue-collar and union voters." She has also signed up mayors of seven small to medium-size cities in the distict, including the second and third largest ones. "The biggest reason for Clinton's competitiveness in the state is her union strength, but she's not impregnable on that score." The top union in IN is the United Auto Workers, which is officially neutral after backing John Edwards. Of all the neutral players in IN, "the most coveted is" Visclosky. He "sits on pots of money thanks to his appropriations subcommitte charmanship, and has an unmatched get-out-the-vote team that he built from scratch" (4/30).
You Wanna Be Where You Can See Our Troubles Are All The Same
Clinton is hoping a visit by actors Ted Danson and Mary Steenburgen "will translate into votes" in Howard County. A planned campaign meeting was abruptly delayed when the volunteers lined up on Buckeye St. to get autographs and have pictures taken with Steenburgen and Danson. Steenburgen said she has known Clinton for 30 years and told the volunteers all the hard work was being done for the right person. Steenburgen: "I'm inspired by her as a mother, friend, daughter and wife." Danson said Clinton treats everyone the same and doesn't change her position according to the people she is talking with. Danson: "I want the brightest, smartest, hardest working, most prepared, most resilient person, who can take a punch and get up and still focus on us in the White House" (de la Bastide, Kokomo Tribune, 5/1).