Friday, April 18, 2008
Advertisement
THE FLY-BY
2010: A Race Odyssey
ALABAMA: Ambitiously Delicious
A Mobile Press-Register/Univ. of So. AL poll; conducted 4/7-10; surveyed 411 adults; margin of error +/- 5% (release, 4/13).
Would You Consider Seeking Public Office?
Yes 12% No 86
CALIFORNIA: Animal Farm
Columnist Thomas Elias writes: "Likely to oppose" ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D) in the '10 primary will be LG John Garamendi (D). "Garamendi is rarely far from a microphone when major state issues arise and he also gets a fair share of free news coverage." Another Dem who might compete is '06 nominee Phil Angelides (D). "Also a possible candidate" is ex-state Controller Steve Westly (D). And there's state Treas. Bill Lockyer (D), "quietly biding his time in a low-profile job but gathering a decent war chest."
Among the GOP, "the obvious candidate" is Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R), a moderate GOPer and "another Silicon Valley high-tech mogul who appeared until this spring to a virtual lock on his party's nomination." Poizner "may have a big bucks primary election challenger, also from Silicon Valley," ex-eBay chief exec. Meg Whitman (R). No one knows where Whitman may stand on issues, but if her backing Mitt Romney means anything much, she "might be far to the right of Poizner, who has been as tough on insurance companies as Garamendi ever was." Dems "would love for Whitman to run because it would force Poizner, who has mostly been a self-funded politician, to spend more of his own money than he might like" (4/14).
A group of moderate GOP activists is "hoping to cultivate a farm team" of electable candidates for the '10 elections and beyond. GOP moderates on 4/16 unveiled the group, California Republicans Aligned for Tomorrow. Observers saw it as an attempt to "wrest control of the party structure" from conservatives. The group includes ex-Gov. Pete Wilson (R). Conservatives are worried that the group, whose board of advisers is largely made up of moderates, will "shower resources to moderate candidates (Harmon, Contra Costa Times, 4/17).
CONNECTICUT: Rellishing The Job
LG Michael Fedele (R) said that while nothing is final, he believes Gov. Jodi Rell (R) will want to continue developing her key initiatives in a second term. Fedele: "My hunch is she is going to run again. I just think she is going to want to come back and complete her tasks." Speaker James Amann (D) formed an exploratory cmte in 1/08 and said he expects to make a financial decision about whether to run for gov. this summer (Phaneuf, Hartford Journal Inquirer, 4/12).
GEORGIA: Here's Johnny
Insurance commis. John Oxendine (R) said on 4/17 he's running for gov. in '10. Oxendine "said gridlock in the recent legislative session helped convince him" to get into the race. Oxendine said animosity the House and the Senate makes a neutral candidate more attractive. Oxendine: "I think in the current climate for the next governor to come from the House and the Senate would be very difficult from an effective government standpoint." All eyes are on Sen. Johnny Isakson (R), who "would likely be the immediate front-runner is he decides to to return" to GA to run. For the Dems, state Rep. DuBose Porter (D) is said to be in the mix (McCaffrey, AP, 4/17).
MICHIGAN: Fat Cat, Where Y'At?
The combination of a $240K debt and a harsh fundraising environment for the GOP is expected to be the topic of debate this weekend. The financial picture "could be key" to a list of crucial races up and down the ticket. State GOP officials defend their financial decisions, saying the loans taken during '07 for the party's main fund "will be covered" by money from a separate federal account with more liberal rules. MI Dem chair Mark Brewer (D) said he believes the GOP is having trouble raising money because of internal divisions within the party. Brewer said he expects Dems to enter the fall at a financial disadvantage. Brewer: "As in the past, I'm sure their wealthy, fat-cat donors will in the end bail them out" (Trowbridge, Detroit News, 4/18).
NEW YORK: Billionaire For Hire
A Quinnipiac Univ. poll; conducted 4/14-15; surveyed 1,257 RVs; margin of error +/- 3% (release, 4/18).
Who Would You Most Like To See Elected Gov. In '10?
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 18-44 45+ 3/20 M. Bloomberg 32% 27% 32% 39% 32% 32% 30% 33% 32% 32% 29% R. Giuliani 30 49 18 30 31 30 37 5 39 26 25 D. Paterson 17 10 23 15 17 18 13 41 12 20 27 A. Cuomo 13 6 19 11 15 11 12 16 10 15 11 Undec 7 8 7 6 5 9 9 5 8 7 8
Direction Of NY State
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 18-44 45+ 3/24 12/12 Satisfied 41% 41% 47% 32% 40% 42% 38% 46% 47% 38 37% 49% Dissatisfied 57 57 50 76 58 56 60 54 51 61 60 51
State Of NY Economy
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 18-44 45+ 3/06 10/03 Excellent 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% -- 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% Good 20 25 20 15 22 17% 21 13 25 16 35 18 Not so good 53 48 55 56 52 53 52 58 49 55 40 47 Poor 25 25 21 28 22 28 25 27 24 26 22 33
Clinton As Sen.
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 18-44 45+ 3/24 12/12 Approve 62% 34% 85% 57% 56% 66% 56% 75% 63% 61% 64% 64% Disapprove 31 58 10 35 37 25 37 18 28 32 29 29
Schumer As Sen.
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 18-44 45+ 3/24 12/12 Approve 65% 49% 77% 65% 63% 67% 63% 75% 57% 69% 66% 59% Disapprove 18 30 9 17 22 14 19 9 18 18 18 22
Paterson As Gov.
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 18-44 45+ NYC Upstate Approve 50% 48% 56% 45% 49% 52% 51% 67% 49% 53% 50% 53% Disapprove 10 14 7 12 11 10 10 7 12 9 10 11
Cuomo As AG
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 18-44 45+ 3/24 10/2 7/31 Approve 65% 55% 74% 64% 66% 65% 66% 66% 60% 68% 59% 62% 68% Disapprove 13 20 9 14 15 11 13 14 13 14 12 17 19
Will Paterson Be Able To Govern NY Effectively?
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 18-44 45+ 3/20 Effectively 62% 53% 70% 61% 61% 63% 61% 80% 61% 64% 75% Not effectively 15 23 11 13 19 12 16 10 16 16 6
Will Paterson Be Able To Restore Public Trust In State Gov't?
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 18-44 45+ 3/20 Will restore 55% 51% 59% 56% 54% 56% 53% 76% 51% 58% 67% Won't restore 27 34 21 28 33 22 29 11 30 25 15
State Legislature Job Approval
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 18-44 45+ 10/2 7/31 6/19 Approve 32% 34% 36% 24% 27% 36% 30% 36% 38% 29% 30% 32% 31% Disapprove 51 50 46 61 62 43 54 49 44 56 52 49 49
DiNapoli As Comp.
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 18-44 45+ 10/2 7/31 Approve 27% 27% 30% 26% 32% 23% 28% 34% 24% 30% 30% 34% Disapprove 16 19 11 19 18 14 15 18 20 14 12 15
Silver As Assemb. Speaker
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 18-44 45+ 10/2 7/31 6/19 Approve 34% 28% 40% 30% 33% 34% 31% 40% 38% 32% 29% 33% 29% Disapprove 31 34 25 38 42 22 34 24 21 37 35 35 33
Bruno As Sen. Majority Leader
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk 18-44 45+ 12/12 10/2 Approve 40% 52% 36% 38% 41% 40% 41% 48% 42% 40% 26% 30% Disapprove 32 23 33 35 39 25 32 28 25 35 36 39
Should The Media Continue To Press Gov. Paterson For More Personal Details?
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 14% 14% 13% 11% 16% 11% 12% 8% No 84 84 84 87 81 86 86 92
When The Spitzer Scandal Broke Were You Ashamed To Have Spitzer As Gov.?
- All GOP Dem Ind Men Wom Wht Blk Yes 20% 25% 18% 19% 21% 19% 21% 10% No 76 68 78 78 75 76 74 88
NORTH DAKOTA: We Don't Serve Outsiders Here
GOP activist Curly Haugland (R) is considering a run for RNC chair, in part because he's unhappy about a proposal that would allow an outsider to hold the job. At their convo in St. Paul, national GOP delegates are likely to debate a proposal that would allow a nonmember of the RNC to serve as its chairman. Haugland said one argument put forward by the idea's supporters is that few RNC members want to hold the chair. He said he is putting his name forward to rebut that notion. Haugland: "If we want to choose to go outside of our membership, there would be no rules then. The universe of candidates to be the chairmain, if it could be other than a member, is the planet" (Wetzel, AP, 4/14).
TENNESSE: That's Why I Hang My Hat In Tennesse
Ex-Senate Maj. Ldr. Bill Frist (R) "appears to have increasingly turned his attention" to grassroots TN politics and GOPers in the state Legislature. Vanderbilt prof. Bruce Oppenheimer "said Frist's activities show he is 'doing all the things you would expect somebody who's going to run for governor would do'" prior to the election cycle. Frist, who says he won't announce his intentions until early '09, has written in recent blog posts about the need to strengthen the GOP in TN and how he and VOLPAC, "were 'devoting significant energy'" toward electing GOP legislators (Rodgers, Nashville City Paper, 4/14).
TEXAS: Don't Mess With Perry
Gov. Rick Perry (R) said on 4/17 that he will run for re-election in '10, possibly "setting up a bruising primary battle" with Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) and LG David Dewhurst (R). Hutchison "appeared unaffected" by Perry's statement. She has said that her decision to run would not be swayed by other candidates in the race this time. Hutchison: "I am encouraged by the growing number of Texans asking me to return home to run for governor to provide leadership for our state." Dewhurst said he would weigh his options later and continue to focus on the '09 legislative session (Jeffers Jr./Hoppe, Dallas Morning News, 4/18).
TX Dem Chair Boyd Richie: "Given the current state of the state after five years of absolute and failed" GOP rule, "there's no reason to think" Perry's record "would earn him more than 39%" he received in '06 (Selby, Austin-American Statesman, 4/17).