Thursday, Nov. 5, 2009
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This Means War?
It'll be awhile until we know whether the GOP's mess in NY-23 will spill into other House primaries featuring a moderate and a conservative, but here are a few other lessons we learned on 11/3:
-- Whether the GOP likes it or not, "tea party" candidates are popping up in many CDs this cycle, including just today in NRCC Chair Pete Sessions' (R-TX 32) CD. NY-23's Doug Hoffman's (C) relative "success" looks to be spawning even more copycats, even though very few of the "tea party" candidates already in '10 races have made much of a splash. Hoffman's well-financed bid may well represent the movement's high-water mark, but challengers with the title "activist" have shown up lots in recent weeks, and we expect that trend to continue.
-- While the GOP believes the VA GOV results portend bad things for Dem freshmen there in '10, 11/3 also provided a good bit of news for the party in a place where it has lacked good news in a long time: the suburbs. In four Philly suburban counties, a socially conservative GOP nominee for the state's highest court took 54%, which was higher than her statewide total. And in NY's Westchester Co., a GOPer knocked off a three-term county exec. Nassau Co. Exec. Tom Suozzi (D) is also clinging to a surprisingly slim lead, too. So while voters have deserted federal GOP candidates recently, they're still around for local races. Can NY-19, PA-06 and PA-07 GOPers get these voters to stick around in '10?
Things Are Pence
A couple of candidates who were dissed by the NY-23 GOP cmte now say they're interested in challenging Owens (D) in '10. Rep. Pence (R), though, says he's supporting Hoffman, if he runs.
Thursday, Nov. 5, 2009
Results
CALIFORNIA 10 (D/FAIRFIELD -- GARAMENDI)
1. Always O-Bay Your Speaker
LG John Garamendi (D) defeated atty David Harmer (R), prof. Jeremy Cloward (G), courier Mary McIlroy (P&F) and insurance agent Jerome Denham (AI) last p.m. Results with 100% of precincts reporting (AP, 11/4).
CA-10 Special Election
- votes %age Garamendi 66,311 53% Harmer 53,411 43 Cloward 2,314 2 McIlroy 1,672 1 Denham 1,435 1
Garamendi "is heading" to DC today to be sworn in after he won the race to replace ex-Rep./State Dept official Ellen Tauscher (D). His "triumph" could give Dems "another vote for health care reform as early as this week." He said an aide to Speaker Nancy Pelosi "urged him to fly" to DC today so he could be sworn in 11/5. Garamendi: "I may very well be there this weekend to provide a critical vote on health care. I would be very happy to make that yes vote my first vote in Congress" (Garofoli, San Francisco Chronicle, 11/4).
Harmer "declined to concede" until all the votes had been counted. Outspent 2-to-1 in the "heavily" Dem CD, Harmer hoped he "could tap into public angst over an obdurate recession, federal spending and health care reform." But Garamendi touted his "broad and deep" experience, "and never retreated from his long-standing support of progressive policies." Garamendi: "This election offered voters a very clear choice of direction."
Still, CA GOPers "characterized Harmer's relatively strong campaign as a sing of voter dissatisfaction" with Pres. Obama's policies. CA GOP vice chair Tom Del Beccaro: "This has been the best campaign response I have ever seen in all the years I have been doing this. In that regard, it is a complete victory. ... We have laid valuable groundwork for the 2010 elections" (Vorderbrueggen, Contra Costa Times, 11/3).
Turnout was estimated to be 39% -- "an exceptionally high figure" for a special, according to Contra Costa Co. clerk Steve Weir (San Francisco Chronicle, 11/4).
Editor-in-Chief: Amy Walter
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