Results

ELECTION FALLOUT

1. About Last Night...

GOP victories in NJ GOV and VA GOV on 11/3 "put the party in a stronger position to turn back the political wave" Pres. Obama "unleashed" in '08, setting the stage for GOPers "to raise money, recruit candidates and ride the excitement of an energized base as the party heads into" the midterm elections.

But a Dem victory in NY-23 -- "after an ideologically pitched battle between moderates and conservatives over how best to lead" GOPers back to power -- "signaled" that the GOP "faces continued upheaval." The Dem victory "came over a conservative candidate who, with the enthusiastic backing of" nat'l conservative leaders and "well-financed grass-roots" orgs., had forced out a GOP candidate who supported abortion rights and gay rights.

The results in NJ and VA "underscored the difficulties" Obama "is having transforming his historic victory a year ago into either a sustained electoral advantage for" Dems "or a commanding ideological position over conservatives in legislative battles." The "coalition that swept him into" the WH "was absent" 11/3, "with evidence that the young, African-American and first-time voters who supported" Obama "failed to turn out to help" the Dems Obama "had campaigned for." Indie voters who had flocked to Obama in VA and NJ in '08 "shifted" 11/3 to the GOP candidates in both states, according to exit polls. "That is a swing that will certainly be noted by" moderate cong. Dems facing re-election in '10, "who may now be more reluctant to support" Obama "on tough votes in Congress."

Still, even as GOPers "celebrated their first wisp of good news in more than a year, they confronted results likely to fuel a continuation of the arguments that have torn the party with increased intensity in recent days." The victory of atty/Rep.-elect Bill Owens (D) in NY-23 "clearly surprised" GOP leaders "and offered one bit of good news to" the WH, "which put a last-minute effort into trying to ensure a" Dem victory there.

WH sr. adviser David Axelrod: "If there is a big backlash against Democrats, why did we just pick up a Democrat in a district that hasn't elected a Democrat in 150 years? ... The real story here is, I think this thing is ambiguous. Yes, Democrats lost in New Jersey and Virginia, but if you look at those races, the factors were locals" (Nagourney, New York Times, 11/4).

OBAMA: Refereeing The Referendum

The off-year elections were, in NJ and VA, "an unmistakable rebuke of" Dems, "reshuffling Obama's political circumstances in ways likely to have severe near-term consequences for his policy agenda and larger governing strategy."

Indies "took flight from" Dems. "They suffered humiliating" GOV losses in "traditionally" blue NJ, where Obama "lent his prestige in a pair of eleventh-hour campaign rallies" 11/1, and in VA, "which had been trending leftward and just last year was held up as an example of how Obama was redrawing the political map in his favor." 11/3's "trends were emphatically not in Obama's favor. Among those paying closest attention are dozens of" Dems who won ex-GOP CDs in '06 and '08 and are up for re-election in '10. "Many of these pickups that powered" the Dems' recapture of Congress "came in Southern and border states, or in the Ohio River Valley, where political conditions are similar to those in" VA.

Obama "now faces a much tougher challenge persuading these mostly moderate" Dems "to put themselves further at risk by backing such liberal priorities as expanding" gov't's role in heath care "or limiting greenhouse gases" (Harris/Martin, Politico, 11/4). The health care bill could be in danger, "especially after" Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid signaled 11/3 that Congress is unlikely to deliver a bill to Obama's desk this year. "That means the contentious debate will stretch into" '10 -- "an election year when there will be far more political careers at stake" (Tumulty, Time, 11/4).

Still, Dems' losses in VA and NJ "should not be interpreted as a significant blow" to Obama.

"While the economy and jobs were the chief concern for voters in both states," 26% of NJ residents "said property taxes was also a major issue, while another" 20% "mentioned corruption, according to CNN exit polling." In a similar CNN survey taken in VA, "health care was the most important issue for" 24% of the voters, while 15% named taxes and trans. was mentioned by 7%. "Further proof that this election was not solely focused on Obama," 56% of VAans said Obama "was not a factor when it came down to their vote." In NJ, "that number increased to" 60% of the people who went to the polls. Perhaps "this was the problem for" VA state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) and NJ Gov. Jon Corzine (D). Neither one "was Obama; neither was a great spokesman for 'change,'" and Dem strategists "and grassroots activists said each candidate failed to give independents a reason to support them" (Preston, CNN, 11/4).

Exits "also suggest that Obama's last minute lobbying blitzes" for both Corzine and Deeds "had little sway with voters." Only 19% of VA voters and 18% of NJ voters "said they voted to express support for Obama. A slightly bigger chunk of voters said they voted to express disapproval for" the admin. (Lovley, Politico, 11/4).

Meanwhile, WH press sec. Robert Gibbs told reporters this a.m. that voters went to the polls in VA and NJ to work through "very local issues that didn't involve the president." Gibbs said voters were concerned about the economy. Gibbs: "I don't think the president needed an election or an exit poll to come to that conclusion" (AP, 11/4).

OBAMA: Abs Of Steele

By seizing the NJ and VA GOV seats, GOPers "dispelled any notion of" Obama's "electoral invincibility, giving the GOP a lift." And GOP leaders "were quick to cast" the outcome "as a rebuke of Obama, nearly a year after his election" (Barabak/Fiore, Los Angeles Times, 11/4).

RNC Chair Michael Steele made the TV rounds 11/3 p.m.

Steele, on the VA GOV race: "No, I didn't think it's just about Virginia. I think it's about leadership paying attention to what people are saying. When you don't listen, when you don't take into account their concerns, they will respond. And they responded here tonight."

More Steele: "And I think the president, the White House, certainly the leadership in Congress as they prepare to vote on a health care bill that no one wants, they need to pay attention. There are ramifications. Their votes are being paid attention to. And people are going to respond next year if they don't think the direction that the administration and the Congress are going in is the one they think the country should go in" ("Campbell Brown," CNN, 11/3).

Steele, on whether the results are a referendum: "No, I don't think it's so much a referendum on the president. ... I think that it represents or it certainly reflects a sea change, a different direction for the wind to blow here. To a certain extent, it i an opportunity to sort of re-evaluate the direction the president wants to take the country on a number of these issues" ("LKL," CNN, 11/3).

Steele, asked if he had been "crowing": "We're not crowing. We're just smiling" ("Early Show," CBS, 11/4).

RGA Chair/MS Gov. Haley Barbour (R) made the TV rounds 11/3 p.m.

Barbour: "It's too much to say it's a referendum on President Obama. But I do think his policies are having a tremendous impact on these elections. And his policies are hurting Democrats, both in Virginia and in New Jersey, where people are concerned about jobs, about spending, about debt" ("Situation Room," CNN, 11/3).

Barbour, on whether the GOP gains were a referendum on Obama: "Any time the incumbent governor is up for reelection, the election is to some degree a referendum on that incumbent's record, and there is no question Governor Corzine's record was not considered good by the people of New Jersey. But he was also weighted down by the president's and the Democrats' policies. Now, I want to be clear. I think it's an overstatement to say this was a referendum on president Obama."

Barbour, on Obama and NJ GOV: "So sure, an incumbent's re-election is somewhat a referendum on his record, but in this case Corzine had the added weight of the unpopularity and the administration's policies in Washington" ("On The Record," FNC, 11/3).

House Min. Whip Eric Cantor: "We're very excited here in Virginia. I think the victories last night here and in New Jersey indicate that when Republicans stand united, we can win, whether it's in a northern state or a southern state. ... What's important to take out of these elections is that voters in both states were very concerned about the direction on the economy and rejected out-of-hand the policies being pursued by the White House and Speaker Pelosi" ("Fox & Friends," FNC, 11/4).

Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA): "This is a night that is the first report card on the president" ("Situation Room," CNN, 11/3).

Ex-Speaker Dennis Hastert: "I think these campaigns were run on national issues. ... And I think people have said, 'Look it, we have had enough of this. We don't want it in Washington, and we don't want it in our own backyard" ("Your World," FNC, 11/3).

Karl Rove, on whether Dems are correct that this is not a referendum on Obama: "No, especially since there are prominent Democrats who said just the opposite. President Bill Clinton said this was going to be a referendum on President Obama and his policies, and for once I agree with Bill Clinton, and it is" ("Hannity," FNC, 11/3).

Dems countered, insisting Obama wasn't the issue in the NJ/VA losses.

• VA Gov./DNC chair Tim Kaine, on the VA and NJ GOV losses and the trend of them voting against the party in power: "There is a little bit of a trend at work here, where we felt like we were running uphill in both races, because of the economy and this historic trend. The thing that we noticed yesterday, strongly, is that voters in both states have a very favorable view of President Obama's job performance. They viewed these races as local races" ("Morning Joe," MSNBC, 11/4).

• DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen: "The Obama agenda is not on the ballot in New Jersey. It's a governor's race. It has its own set of state issues. The Obama agenda is not on the ballot in Virginia. So these have local flavor to them. There's a lot going on in each state with the governors and the legislature. So I don't think tonight's results can be seen as somehow a referendum on the Obama agenda. Now, a year from now, when you have midterm Congressional elections, it will be. And that will be a true test" ("Situation Room," CNN, 11/3).

• MD Gov. Martin O'Malley (D): "Most people understand that President Obama inherited a huge mess, an economy that was in shambles. And if you look at the progress that's been made, I mean eight months ago, all of the economists were talking about us teetering on the brink of depression. Now we're seeing the start of a recovery and most debate is over how quickly is it happening" ("Situation Room," CNN, 11/3).

OBAMA: Heads Or Coattails?

The pundits also weighed in on Obama's role in the VA/NJ Dem losses:

•CNN's Yellin, on whether Obama had an effect on VA voters: "At this precinct, it's been nothing more than a steady trickle all day. We have been interviewing voters as they come out. And we see a clear divide on the question of the Obama effect, with Democrats saying, 'No, this is a vote about local issues,' and Republicans insisting the opposite. They say theirs is a vote against President Obama" ("Situation Room," CNN, 11/3).

•CNN's Crowley: "What you're seeing is that the president's coattails didn't have a lot of durability from last year to this. He certainly pulled in Democrats last year when he was on top of the ticket. When he is not on top of the ticket, I think then it reverts to the person who actually is there and who they are voting on, so this is certainly a lesson for Democrats as to just how far the president's powers of persuasion can go, whether or not he can translate that magic on to a different ticket, and I would say that's sort of not looking as though it does" ("Situation Room," CNN, 11/3).

•Dem strategist Matthew Littman, on Obama's popularity: "In the independents and Democrats, Obama is still very popular ... what is happening in New Jersey is, New Jersey is in a lot of trouble as a state; their economy is in the toilet. Just as if you look at California, and Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, if he was on the ballot this year he'd probably lose, it's no reflection on Barack Obama" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 11/3).

•NBC's Todd, on whether these elections are referendums on Obama: "Nobody ran against Obama this campaign. There's a lot of talk of 'Is this a referendum or not? Did he have enough coat tails?' I think those are real questions. Bob McDonnell did not run against Barack Obama. Chris Christie did not run against Barack Obama" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 11/3).

•NBC's Gregory, on the VA GOV race: "I spoke to a top Republican in Virginia, tonight, who said flatly, this is not a referendum on Obama. What he added, however, is that this contributes to an environment that Republicans like a lot. Whether it's Virginia, we'll see what happens in the other races, but there's an anti-incumbency mood, we see that. Two, that there are conditions out there that are moving independent voters, we can see it in Virginia" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 11/3).

•Newsweek's Fineman: "This was not a protest vote against Barack Obama. This is a vote saying, 'We want the economy addressed. We haven't seen all the deliverables perhaps from Barack Obama and the Democrats.' This is as much, I think, an expression of a tepid response by the Democratic base to what the Democrats have yet to accomplish here in Washington" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 11/3).

DEMOCRATS: 2010 Questions

"History suggests that off-year elections are far from predictive." But "even before a single vote was cast" 11/3, Dems "had cause for concern."

With Obama "slipping in polls and many voters unhappy with the" Dem-run Congress, "it's been increasingly clear over the last few months that Democrats were likely to have a tough midterm next year," said Cook Political Report editor Charlie Cook. Cook: "What we've seen tonight doesn't dispute that assumption."

The GOV results "certainly won't help" Dems. "Perceptions are important in politics -- often more so than reality -- and the GOP's success, including a sweep of all three statewide offices in" VA, "should boost the party's fundraising and candidate recruitment in the coming weeks. More significant was the makeup" of the electorate in VA and NJ, "states Obama carried a year ago. It was whiter than the electorate that turned out in" '08, and suggested the difficulty that Dems "could have attracting minority voters without" Obama "atop the ticket." Also "worrisome" for Dems "was the sentiment among" indies. "They went overwhelmingly" GOPer in VA and NJ; "if that dynamic carries over to next year, it could mean serious losses for Obama" and Dems "fighting to keep their majorities on Capitol Hill."

Dem pollster Mark Mellman: "Democrats who look at 2006 and 2008 and assume there was some kind of permanent change should be shaken out of their lethargy. ... It doesn't mean we're going to lose in 2010, but we'd be very foolish to simply assume we're going to win" (Los Angeles Times, 11/4).

"Economic worries are a major worry for" Dems heading into the midterms. "With unemployment expected to rise next year and economic recovery only sputtering along, the party in power could find itself punished by voters turning to the other party for better results" (Mason, Washington Examiner, 11/4).

VA and NJ "delivered clear warnings for" Dems about "how the political landscape may have changed" since '08. Neither GOV race "amounted to a referendum" on Obama, "but the changing shape of the electorate in both states and the shifts among key constituencies revealed cracks in the" Obama '08 "faction and demonstrated that, at this point," GOPers "have the more energized constituency heading into next year's midterm elections" (Balz, Washington Post, 11/4).

But "if there is one thing that" Dem candidates in the midterm elections "might want to take from the party's bad night," it "is this: You are on your own." What the election may have shown "is that Obama's popularity cannot be transferred." Obama "had campaigned and raised money for both Corzine and Deeds; Obama had also tried to put the remnants of his own campaign operation to use on their behalf." And in the end, "both Corzine and Deeds stumbled on their own weaknesses" (Tumulty, Time, 11/4).

UVA prof. Larry Sabato: "The next midterm is 364 days away, but I'll bet you this. I'll bet Republicans gain seats in the House and probably the Senate, even if the economy does get better. That is the history of midterm elections. The out party tends to enjoy a correction from the prior presidential election and gain seats" ("On The Record," FNC, 11/3).

REPUBLICANS: I've Got Your Backlash

Top Dems "predicted that the backlash against" the GOP in NY-23 "marked the start of a wave that will continue in key" '10 SEN races, "saying they think" indies "will abandon a divided" GOP. DSCC Chair Bob Menendez: "What we are seeing here is a fractured GOP in Senate races all over the country."

A "growing number" of small-gov't conservatives, particularly outside of DC, "have been energized by a grass-roots insurgency that is rejecting the more mainstream" GOP candidates. Dems "now think the upstarts could be a potential, albeit unintentional, ally in their bid to hold Congress" in '10. Moderate GOP candidates, Dems think, "are being pushed to the right in states that require them to stay centrist in order to win."

Dems "have their eye on" GOP primary challenges in FL, CA, CT, IL, OH, NV, CO, MO, NH, AR and KY. Menendez: "The tea partiers and the birthers and the far right of their party is moving these candidates in that direction, and that's a lot harder when you have to win in the general election" (Ward, Washington Times, 11/4).

Meanwhile, the Club for Growth spent more than $1M in support of accountant Doug Hoffman (C) in NY-23. That's "slightly less than" the $1.1M the DCCC chipped in behalf of Owens. Meanwhile, the NRCC spent roughly $897K -- mostly on ads directly challenging Owens, as opposed to building up Assemb. Dede Scozzafava (R), who dropped out of the race over the weekend.

"There are two schools of spin coming from the GOP." One, NY-23 "was a rare instance where national interests converged into one local race, and it won't be repeated." Yet other GOPers "with close ties to the NRCC admit they aren't so confident, citing the nearly" $300K in contributions from small donors the Club for Growth "was able to quickly bundle on Hoffman's behalf. They acknowledge the club versus the GOP isn't a new phenomenon, considering the group has been active in campaigning against" GOP nominees before. "The difference, says one GOP insider, is the feelings of hostility among grassroots conservatives toward" GOPers in DC. A GOP source: "There's not just an anti-Obama feeling out there. ... There's an anti-Washington, anti-establishment movement, which targets the national party, too. ... It could be a real problem for us" (Bailey, "The Gaggle," Newsweek, 11/3).

Kaine, on the after-effects of NY-23: "We already are seeing the Republican party kind of making that mistake going into 2010 because you have extremely vigorous Republican primaries going on in Florida and Texas. Just in the last couple of days, you have seen a war of words between Tim Pawlenty and Olympia Snowe. You saw Arlen Specter chased out of his party earlier this year" ("American Morning," CNN, 11/4).

Dem strategist Joe Trippi "Don't misread this and think Republicans are resurgent and safe. There are going to be problems for incumbents regardless of ideology, party, whatever, in 2010 if the economy's still where it is and we still have some of the problems we're facing and we're not getting things done on Capitol Hill" ("On The Record," FNC, 11/3).

CNN's J. King, on conservatives wanting to challenge moderate candidates: "What the Republicans say is that they're going to have these races. They believe if they have the intensity and drive up turnout, it will actually help their party. And there are many who believe if you have a good, contested primary, in the end, it actually helps your party. The Democrats are hoping what happens is that it divides the party, that it causes a Republican civil war along moderate and conservative lines" ("Situation Room," CNN, 11/3).

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