Monday, Nov. 2, 2009
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The Dede Is Done
It's completely fitting that the NY-23 race ends on such a chaotic note. Assemb. Dede Scozzafava's (R) departure, and subsequent endorsement of atty Bill Owens (D), means that almost everyone is flying in the dark as we head into Election Day.
-- Today's Siena poll is no help in finding our way. Accountant Doug Hoffman (C) now leads, 41-36%, but his previous advantage among indies is gone. Could it be that these voters are a bit nervous about supporting the GOP establishment's new candidate? Scozzafava's endorsement may help Owens increase his lead among indies, but she's pretty unpopular with that crowd (only 21% of them view her favorably). One place where Scozzafava is certain to help Owens is in her home Watertown region, where he and Hoffman are now tied.
-- Still, most Dems don't express much hope that the race will go their way tomorrow. But some see a loss as a "gift" in terms of the damage it'll do to the GOP's hopes in '10, as they believe it'll scare moderates and woman away from the GOP.
-- But a Hoffman win would signify some bad news for Dems, too. It would confirm that the GOP grassroots are fired up, and were able to propell a no-name Conservative Party candidate to victory in a CD Obama won just a year ago. So while Dems may delight in the GOP's internal woes, a loss would expose a significant voter motivation problem within their own ranks.
Friends With Benefits
VP Biden campaigns for Owens (D) in NY-23, and gives Dems plenty of red meat. Meanwhile, the RNC quickly jumps on Hoffman's (C) bandwagon by airing a new radio ad for him.
Monday, Nov. 2, 2009
- 1 CALIFORNIA 10 (D/FAIRFIELD -- TAUSCHER) POLL: The Harmer's Daughter
Special Elections
Special Elections
CALIFORNIA 10 (D/FAIRFIELD -- TAUSCHER) POLL
1. The Harmer's Daughter
A KPIX-TV poll; conducted 10/26-28 by SurveyUSA (IVR); surveyed 581 LVs; margin of error +/- 4.1% (release, 10/29). Tested: LG John Garamendi (D) and atty David Harmer (R).
Special Election Matchup
- All Dem GOP Ind Men Wom J. Garamendi 50% 77% 12% 35% 44% 55% D. Harmer 40 15 81 42 44 37 Other 6 5 2 18 7 5 Undec 4 3 4 4 4 3
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