Monday, June 22, 2009
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Don't Feel So Melancon-y
Although he hasn't confirmed reports that he's running for SEN, the stronger-by-the-day rumors surrounding Charlie Melancon (D) are particularly interesting since LA-03 would be the first tossup open seat race of the cycle.
-- In the 4 open Dem seats, Pres. Obama took an avg of 72%; in the nine open GOP seats so far, John McCain took 61%. Dems think they can play in Adam Putnam's (R-FL 12) north FL CD, and GOPers likewise in NH-02, but otherwise, it's barren territory for competitive races.
-- But LA-03 would be different. McCain's 61% win there means that just nine other Dems hold seats with a higher McCain %. Still, Dems aren't out of luck: five of those nine CDs are represented by conservative Dems who first won their seats in '08. And if Ascension Parish Sheriff Jeff Wiley (D) enters, he'd appear to fit this mold. Earlier this year, business-type Dems who were disgruntled over Melancon's early support for EFCA tried to talk Wiley into running against the incumbent, but were unsuccessful.
-- Conservative LA Dems fared poorly in '08, however. Despite what many believed to be an almost unstoppable candidacy, then-longtime Caddo Parish DA Paul Carmouche (D) was edged in an open LA-04 race, and then-Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) was trampled in Baton Rouge.
-- A Melancon SEN bid may mean good news for the DSCC, but it'd certainly be heartburn for the DCCC, and would give GOPers one of its best shots at its first open seat pickup since '04.
In Deep Schmidt?
Despite the strong GOP leanings of the CD, a new poll puts Rep. Schmidt (R-OH 02) at just 44% against her indie-turned-Dem challenger.
Monday, June 22, 2009
- 1 CALIFORNIA 32 (D/EAST LOS ANGELES -- SOLIS): Not Too Hard To Chus
Special Elections
Special Elections
CALIFORNIA 32 (D/EAST LOS ANGELES -- SOLIS)
1. Not Too Hard To Chus
In the "final weeks" before the special election, the "heavily favored" Board of Equalization Chair Judy Chu (D) "is confident enough to have moved into a smaller" HQs. Judy Chu, "who put together a multiethnic coalition with the help of organized labor to win the primary," described the runoff as "a calmer situation. But I'm not taking it for granted -- I'm working very hard."
But her opponent, Monterey City Councilor Betty Tom Chu (R) "has opened" an office for the first time since entering the race. Betty Chu financed the primary with a $25K loan to herself "but said she is raising money for a runoff," and has enlisted atty Robert Kojima as her volunteer campaign advisor (Merl, Los Angeles Times, 6/22).
Runoff: 7/14
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