Monday, June 15, 2009
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Hello, Again, Hello
When it came to GOPers who helped destroy their own '08 re-election bids, ex-Reps. Bill Sali (R-ID) and Virgil Goode (R-VA) rank near the top of the list. Still, as each are contemplating repeat bids, they're not being treated equally within their primary fields.
-- Goode's been getting the benefit of the doubt, as other potential GOPers (who may be more viable than he is) are letting him decide on the race before they enter. The same can't be said for Sali, who just saw ID House Maj. Caucus Chair Ken Roberts (R) jump into the race against Walt Minnick (D-ID 01). Several other GOPers are strongly considering bids there, too.
-- Analysts agree that both ran sloppy '08 campaigns (Goode wasn't prepared for a competitive, modern race, while Sali was, well, Sali). But some GOPers believe Goode, who's still well liked in VA-05, would give the party a good chance at recapturing the seat in a race that won't feature Pres. Obama atop the ticket. Sali, on the other hand, left his '08 race with a near 50% unfav rating, a number that will doom any bid, especially one against Minnick, who has already shown a certain deftness in straddling the line between his Dem label and the overwhelming GOP nature of the CD.
The bottom line: Not all repeats are equal. If Sali runs, and is the nominee, the GOP will have a very difficult time winning back that seat. A Goode candidacy, though, wouldn't doom the party in VA-05.
I Ran Contra (Costa)
GOPers are trying to lure Sheriff Rupf (R) into a race against Rep. McNerney (D-CA 11), even though Rupf had considered a special CA-10 bid earlier. Sounds like he's interested.
Monday, June 15, 2009
- 1 NEW YORK 23 (R/PLATTSBURGH -- MCHUGH): Northern Exposure
Special Elections
Special Elections
NEW YORK 23 (R/PLATTSBURGH -- MCHUGH)
1. Northern Exposure
Nat'l Dem and GOP cmtes "already are warming up for a fight, studying maps of the north country, figuring out who the region's political players are and considering how much money they may need to pour into advertising."
"Without knowing whether the right candidates will step forward for a real contest, both parties seem poised for what could be the most expensive and visible" race "the north country has seen." Jefferson Co. Dem Chair Sean Hennessey, on his calls with the DCCC: "We're in constant contact, almost on a daily basis, actually."
"While the seat will do nothing to change" Dems' "dominance in the House, losing it would further cement the GOP's public image as irrelevant in the Northeast and undermine morale." NRCC spokesperson Paul Lindsay: "Democrats have painted a big target on this district, but we believe it is winnable with a candidate who can carry on [Army Sec.-designate/Rep.] John McHugh's [R] legacy of working across party lines. [Once a candidate is selected,] we will provide the assistance that is needed to help the nominee build a strong campaign around the issues that are important to upstate New Yorkers."
DCCC spokesperson Shripal Shah: "This district is winnable with the right candidate, but it will be tough. Right now our focus is on working with local Democrats to recruit a strong candidate." Winning the CD "would be a major coup" for Dems, "who have not represented some parts" of the CD since Reconstruction."
The "biggest" hurdle for Dems is that they "have no track record" in the CD and "a very limited political network for the DCCC to draw on." A GOPer "could benefit from some of" McHugh's "leftover campaign cash, but no such war chest exists" for a Dem. The CD "is home to five media markets and is one of the biggest" CDs "geographically east of the Mississippi." Spokespeople "for both parties said the competitiveness --- and their own involvement --- depends entirely on who the candidates are" (Heller, Watertown Daily Times, 6/14).
Editor-in-Chief: Amy Walter
Editor: Tim Sahd
Contributing Editors: John Mercurio, Quinn McCord, Abby Livingston, Maura O'Brien, and Reid Wilson
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