Thursday, June 11, 2009
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Ten For '10?
The '10 expectations game has begun in earnest. Some are staying on message (A U.S. News story reports that Dems believe they can limit their losses to 10 seats), while some are not (Min. Whip Eric Cantor says the GOP can regain the majority in '10).
-- History suggests that Dems will lose seats this cycle, but nowhere near the number GOPers need to take the House back. Only once since the '50s has the party out-of-power gained more than 40 seats (the number needed by GOPers to re-take the majority) in a president's first mid-term election.
-- Or is it possible that Dems could actually gain seats with a popular pres., currently carrying a 65% approval, helming the party? That's only happened once, in '02, when George W. Bush's 65% approval rating gave GOPers a 3-seat gain.
-- That's an anomoly, though. In every other president's first midterm since Eisenhower, the party out-of-power has gained seats. Even John Kennedy, whose popularity sat at 74% on election day in '62, couldn't save Dems from losing 4 seats. In '54, GOPers lost 18 seats even though Eisenhower carried a 57% approval at the same time.
-- Still, Dems may not be too far off with their prediction. The six presidents who had approvals over 50% saw their parties lose an average of 9 seats in their first midterms. The two under 50% (Reagan and Clinton) saw their parties lose 26 and 52, respectively.
Bored Of Ed?
Rep. Castle (R-DE) turns down ranking Member seat on the Education and Labor Cmte, further adding to earlier suspicions that he's leaving the House.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
- 1 CALIFORIA 10 (D/FAIRFIELD -- TAUSCHER): A Movie Script Ending?
Special Elections
Special Elections
CALIFORIA 10 (D/FAIRFIELD -- TAUSCHER)
1. A Movie Script Ending?
"In every election cycle, there's one candidate whose life story stands out." This year, an "underdog" CA cong. candidate is the "clear winner and it's not even close." Anthony Woods' bio -- a 28-year-old gay, black Iraq vet with a Harvard degree -- "reads like a West Wing script Aaron Sorkin threw into the wastebasket for being too over the top."
Woods is "running in a crowded Democratic field" to fill the seat of U.S. Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-10), who is "leaving Congress to serve in Obama's State Department. A date has not yet been set for the special election. Other than serving as an aide to NY Gov. David Patterson (D), Woods is "the political unknown in the field," which includes LG John Garamendi (D), Sen. Mark DeSaulnier (D), and Assemb. Joan Buchanan (D).
One of Woods' top issues is "repealing the military's 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' policy," an issue that is "deeply personal" for Woods, who was forced "to leave a promising Army career after he came out in 2008" with an honorable discharge. "His choice ended up costing him his military scholarship as well as several friends."
Woods, who said he "agonized" over deciding whether or no to come out for months while at Harvard: "I knew getting into it that if I took a stand, it would be a costly decision and it certainly has become one. But people have to take a stand for what's right. There's a reason this policy is on the front burner now... We're a country fighting two wars, having trouble recruiting, yet we want to turn away some of our most talented, most well-trained soldiers?"
Woods has "already received an endorsement" from Dan Choi, "a fellow West Point graduate whose recent discharge for being gay made him a rallying point for activists."
Though he "disagreed" with George W. Bush's decision to invade Iraq," Woods "took pride" in "commanding a unit of 17 West Virginia National Guard soldiers outside of Baghdad during his first tour of duty, and a 64-person unit in Tal Afar during his second. ... He earned a Bronze Star for his efforts." Both Woods' mother -- who raised him alone -- and grandfather served in the Air Force, making the military "a natural career path." Woods: "It was a real struggle because I absolutely love the military. I still do today. I would gladly serve, I would love to teach at West Point, I had no problem deploying again."
According to Woods mgr Todd Stenhouse, "the hope is that Woods' compelling biography will help him reach out to a variety of key demographics" in the CD, including active and retired military, "many of whom live in the area." Woods "is also positioning himself as an outsider compared to the other big three candidates," all of whom are part of CA's "wildly unpopular and increasingly dysfunctional state government." Stenhouse: "The only person with less popularity than Sacramento legislators is Dick Cheney."
"Regardless of how the final vote turns out, it's clear that the young and charismatic candidate has a bright future. After all, if there's one thing voters love, it's a Hollywood ending, and no one has a better script so far than Anthony Woods" (Sarlin, "The Daily Beast", 6/9).
Editor-in-Chief: Amy Walter
Editor: Tim Sahd
Contributing Editors: John Mercurio, Quinn McCord, Abby Livingston, Maura O'Brien, and Reid Wilson
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