Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2008

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"Change has come to America."

— Barack Obama, mult., 11/4.

Signed, Sealed, Delivered

His victory was historic. Many of Obama's most fervent supporters weren't alive the last time a Dem won the WH by such a big margin, or carried some of these states. But was this a transformational election? Have the red/blue lines been permanently altered or just shuffled? We'll be analyzing these issues and more in the days to come, but here's our early read on the election of the century:

-- The Bradley Effect? Not So Much: Obama outperformed Kerry - albeit narrowly - among white voters. Oh, and as for those PUMAs and "bitter" "cling-ons" - Obama won over HRC supporters in OH, PA and NH (and carried Scranton big-time, BTW). Meanwhile, he outperformed Kerry and Gore in rural areas, while splitting the suburban vote w/McCain.

-- Blue and Red America: Take a look at the big states like PA, OH and VA, and you'll see a familiar pattern. Blue blotches around urban areas and big swaths of red across rural ones. Obama's wins in these states were thanks to movement on the margins - not on huge shifts.

-- Rock The Vote - Or Not: Reports of long lines and big crowds at polling places may have overstated the "surge" in turnout. With 95% of precincts reporting, just over 117M had voted. It may ultimately reach '04's 122M mark, but that's a far cry from projections of 130-140M.

INDECISION '08

Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me

You know it's a "change" election when we're waiting on IN, NC and MO and not FL and OH; most likely EC outcome: Obama 364, McCain 174. (#4)

A Udall's House (Er, Senate)

Sens.-elect Tom Udall (D-NM) and Mark Udall (D-CO) will be ranked the most senior of the incoming freshmen Senate class, because of their 5 House terms apiece. But because CO has a greater ...

Results

THE TALLY

1. Oh-Bam!

The latest WH results with 95% precincts reporting (AP, 11/5).

Candidate               Vote      Percent
Barack Obama (D)    62,436,451     52.3%
John McCain (R)     55,379,371     46.4
Ralph Nader (I)        640,973      0.5
Bob Barr (L)           480,128      0.4
Cynthia McKinney (G)   139,213      0.1
----------------------------------------------
                   119,076,136

 

Editor-in-Chief: Amy Walter

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