White House 2008

GENERAL ELECTION

1. Pre-Mortem Signs

The GOP "was the model of unity" following its convo "barely two months ago. But no more."

"Displaying a fracture that stands to become a clean break if John McCain loses the election next week," GOPers "of all stripes and stature have broken with their party's nominee and are not only supporting" Barack Obama, "but trashing the GOP in the process."

Ex-MD Sen. Charles Mathias (R) is the latest of these high-profile GOPers, who have recently included Colin Powell and ex-MA Gov. William Weld (Johnson, AP, 10/29).

Staying Below The Fray

NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I) "has put his money behind a presidential candidate in every election going back to Bill Clinton's first run, but the billionaire says he's staying out of this race."

The Dem-turned-GOPer-turned-indy "is friendly with both" McCain and Obama. But on 10/28, "Bloomberg said neither McCain nor Obama had fully shown that nonpartisan, pragmatic tone 'as much as I would like.'"

Bloomberg: "I think both of them have given the public an understanding of who they are, but I don't think you can say that either has given the public concrete answers to what they would do." Bloomberg said he "'would have liked to see more specificity' from the candidates, but has not explained what he means."

"To some political observers, Bloomberg is withholding his endorsement and cash simply because he has concluded it would not serve him in the long run." Baruch College prof. Doug Muzzio: "Who knows how this mayor's mind works, but it works in one direction -- self-interest" (Kugler, AP, 10/28).

Wielding The Elephant Gun

A Pew Research Center poll released 10/28 found Bush's job approval at 22%, "its lowest ever, and found that more voters think McCain will continue Bush's policies than say he will go in a new direction," by a 47% to 40% margin.

In the last few weeks, Bush's legacy "is taking a beating from both" GOPers and Dems, "with each side trying to pin the president to the other party -- or, more accurately, to argue how their opponent would be worse than the incumbent. ... In fact, in his 'closing argument' stump speech Obama mentions Bush by name 10 times -- more than McCain." McCain: "We both disagree with President Bush on economic policy."

"Through it all Bush himself has kept his head down, blaming the financial crisis and two hurricanes for keeping him off the trail." WH spokesperson Scott Stanzel: "President Bush has kept the enormous responsibilities of his office ahead of political activities and has remained focused on leading the country through this difficult period."

However, "Bush remains a potent fundraiser." The RNC "said Bush headlined 83 events that raised" $146.4M for GOP candidates and cmtes this election cycle (Dinan/Ward, Washington Times, 10/29).

On 10/28, "Bush visited some of the only friendly territory left in Washington" -- the RNC office on Capitol Hill. "The unscheduled visit lasted about 15 to 20 minutes. ... And that could just about do it for Bush's get-out-the-vote effort. For the rest of the week," Bush has a meeting with the Czech Republic's PM and remarks at an FBI grad ceremony (McKinnon, Wall Street Journal, 10/28).

Planning The Wake?

Politico's Martin reports, "Two days after next week's election, top conservatives will gather" at the VA "weekend home of one of the movement's most prominent members to begin a conversation about their role in the GOP and how best to revive a party that may be out of power" in both the WH and Congress next year. "The decision ... reflects the widely-held view among many on the right, and elsewhere, that the GOP is heading toward major losses next week."

Anonymous source: "There's a sense that the Republican Party is broken, but the conservative movement is not." S/he "suggest[ed] that it was the betrayal of some conservative principles" by Bush and cong. leaders "that led to the party's decline."

"But, this source emphasized, the meeting will be held regardless of the outcome of the presidential race." Source: "This is going on if McCain wins, loses or has a recount -- we're not planning for the loss of John McCain."

"Either way, Sarah Palin will be a central part of discussion." If McCain wins, "Palin would be seen as their conduit to power." Source: "She would be the conservative in the White House."

Should McCain lose, "the conversation will include who to groom as the next generation of conservative leaders -- a list that will feature Palin at or near the top" (10/28).

Exorcising Their Vote

Libertarian author Ryan Sager writes, back in '00, Bush's "political savior," Karl Rove, "was performing nothing short of an electoral resurrection, running around" SC calling McCain "an unpatriotic, illegitimate-black-baby-fathering Manchurian Candidate. Who could have guessed that eight years later," McCain "would be dedicating the remainder of his political life to finishing" Rove's work?

"And yet, as McCain runs around the country this fall," calling Obama "an unpatriotic, socialistic terrorist-paller-around-with, it seems he's taken it upon himself to complete what should be called the Rove Realignment. No, not the once-envisioned 'rolling realignment,'" under which the GOP "would add to its base of white Evangelical Protestants, bringing in Hispanics, culturally conservative African Americans, and economically vulnerable whites ... to create a 'permanent'" GOP majority "that would last at least a generation."

"McCain's working on the other realignment: The one where eight years of fiscal recklessness and cultural warfare alienates swing voters and withers" the GOP "until the very base of the conservative movement cracks in half -- splitting a coalition that has endured since" the Barry Goldwater campaign of '64.

"Why would libertarians abandon McCain? After all, they believe in low taxes -- and McCain is the one promising those. And if they're concerned about social issues, well, McCain's never shown much of a stomach for cultural warfare. That is, of course, until now."

The GOP has evolved into an "insular party with little-to-no appeal outside of the rural, the southern, the Evangelical." As the McCain camp "flames out in a ball of Rovian disgrace, scorching the center in an attempt to fire up the base, it's difficult to reach any other conclusion than that the battle for the soul of the GOP "has been lost" (Reason, 10/28).

GOPers "are losing ground in the battle over taxes -- turf they have dominated since the Reagan administration -- even against" a Dem nominee "who is promising substantial tax increases." GOP pollster Neil Newhouse: "It's a stunning reversal of fortune on a core Republican strength" (Weisman, Wall Street Journal, 10/29).

Signs Of Life?

"Could the polls be wrong?" McCain "and his allies say that they are. The country, they say, could be headed" to a '08 version of the famous WH'48 upset election, with McCain in the role of Harry Truman and Obama as Thomas Dewey, "lulled into overconfidence by inaccurate polls." McCain spokesperson Sarah Simmons: "We believe it is a very close race, and something that is frankly very winnable."

"Few analysts outside the McCain campaign appear to share this view. And pollsters this time around will not make the mistake that the Gallup organization made 60 years ago -- ending their polling more than a week before the election and missing a last-minute surge in support for Truman. Every day brings dozens of new state and national presidential polls, a trend that is expected to continue up to Election Day" (Abramowitz, Washington Post, 10/29).

"But amid excitement over Obama's historic candidacy and the chance that the country might choose" a black POTUS "within a matter of days, there is an unmistakable sense of anxiety among blacks here that something will go wrong, that victory will slip away."

Black Vietnam vet Larone Wesley: "They're going to throw out votes. I can't say exactly how, but they are going to accomplish that quite naturally. I'm so afraid for my friend Obama. I look at this through the eyes of the '60s, and I feel there ain't no way they're going to let him make it."

Duval Co. (FL) elections supervisor Jerry Holland: "Obviously, we've come a long way since 2000. For some people, it may have taken eight years to rebuild confidence. For others, it might take another election cycle. The goal is to keep building confidence one voter at a time."

"Still, suspicions linger that something -- faulty machines, misread ballots, mysteriously lost votes -- will deny Obama some of the support that he has" (Saulny, New York Times, 10/29).

Envisioning The Future

If the path to the WH this election "passes through the Hispanic community, then it also passes through Univision. The dominant Spanish-language broadcaster is a powerful influence on its audience -- and in this election cycle, it has been engaged in an aggressive two-year campaign to turn the fast-growing Hispanic constituency into a potent voting bloc."

"The network -- whose ratings during prime time often surpass those of ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC -- has used public-service announcements as well as local and national news broadcasts to motivate Latinos to become politically engaged. With other Latino media and grassroots groups, Univision began by spurring more than a million eligible legal U.S. residents to apply for U.S. citizenship; it then goaded them to register to vote" (Jordan, Wall Street Journal, 10/29).

Reading Their Lips

Washington Post's Gerson writes, "McCain is a rhetorical master -- for those who consider the Gerald Ford era as the golden age" of GOP speechmaking. "McCain is physically vigorous, but his rhetorical approach -- using 'my friends' like a stylistic cane -- is dated. His sledgehammer directness fits his personality, but it is neither memorable nor inspiring."

"Obama's style, in contrast, has worn well. He combines the mild cadences of a preacher with the reasoned tone of a college professor. He is not always eloquent, but he is always fluent, which is easily mistaken for eloquence. Above all, Obama communicates a remarkable self-possession -- a confident self-sufficiency -- that contrasts with the desperate affirmation-hunger of many politicians. No man is an island -- except, seemingly, this one."

"In strategy, the closing stump speeches of the two candidates are fairly typical. Obama gives the front-runner speech -- dismissing all criticism in politics as unfair, ungentlemanly, unconstitutional, uncivilized and ungodly, while depicting his opponent as a monster of negativity who 'would divide a nation just to win an election.' McCain, also typically, positions himself as the relentless battler -- 'fight' is his closing refrain -- against the presumptuous, drape-measuring dauphin" (10/29).

Ready On Day One?

Washington Post editorializes, "We write today in praise of drape-measuring. Early preparation for a presidential transition is essential to a successful launch of any presidency, and this transition will be more challenging -- more perilous -- than any in decades. It will be the first transfer of government since" the 9/11 attacks, "presenting America's enemies with a tempting moment of potential vulnerability. It arrives in the midst of a financial crisis and two wars."

"The candidates are understandably reluctant to discuss the transition for fear of appearing presumptuous." Indeed, McCain "has been deriding" Obama "for 'measuring the drapes' in the Oval Office. The fact of the matter, however, is that both candidates have engaged in transition planning, Obama in what appears to be a more systematic and detailed way than McCain. This is grounds for praise, not carping."

"There are grounds for hope that the process will be speedier this time." An '04 law "gives candidates the opportunity to submit the names of transition planners for quick security clearances, 'completed by the day after the election, to the extent practicable.' ... The Bush administration appears committed to assisting in a smooth transition at a difficult time;" Bush "recently signed an executive order creating a Presidential Transition Coordinating Council to oversee the handoff" (10/29).

Editor-in-Chief: Amy Walter

Executive Editor: John Mercurio

Managing Editor: Quinn McCord

Senior Editors: Maura O'Brien, Tim Sahd, and Reid Wilson

TV Editor: Abby Livingston

Senior Writers: Holly Noe and Rachelle Douillard-Proulx

Staff Writers: Ian Faerstein, Sean J. Miller, Steven Shepard, and Felicia Sonmez

Online Producer: Carrie Dindino

Executive Assistant: Meredith Nettles

Associate Writers: Cyra Master, Michelle Price, Beth Sussman, and Kurtis Lee