White House 2008

GENERAL ELECTION

1. Yes, We Can Go Negative Too

"Despite perceptions" that John McCain "has spent more time on the attack," Barack Obama "aired more negative advertising last week than did McCain," according to a study released 9/17 by the Wisconsin Advertising Project (WAP). During that period, 77% of Obama's ads were "negative," compared with 56% of McCain's spots.

WAP dir. Ken Goldstein "says the pattern was a reversal from earlier months, in which McCain's advertising was consistently more negative than Obama's." Goldstein: "It suggests that the Sarah Palin pick and the newfound aggressiveness by McCain got into Obama's head a little bit. He was under great pressure to show some spine, be aggressive, fire back."

"The study found Obama limiting his television buys to 17 states and McCain airing spots in 15. For all the talk of an expanded electoral map, both campaigns are concentrating resources in traditional battlegrounds, with slightly more than half the total spent" on ads going to MI, OH, WI, IN, MN, and PA. Goldstein: "Shockingly, this race is going to come down to swing voters in the same swing states that decided the last two elections."

The study says the campaigns poured $15M "into the ad wars last week -- they were virtually even in total spending -- but the figures revealed an important distinction. Obama, who has rejected public financing in favor of private fundraising," paid for 97% of his spots. McCain, "who is limited" to an $84M federal subsidy, financed 43% of his ads, "with the rest airing in conjunction" with the RNC. "These 'hybrid' spots allow McCain to retain control while the party foots much of the bill.

Chicago Tribune's Silva writes, "'Anytime McCain was mentioned in an Obama-sponsored advertisement, he was either pictured or mentioned alongside President Bush,' the Wisconsin study reports. 'None of McCain's ads either pictured or mentioned Bush.' Talk about negative" ("The Swamp," 9/18).

Punditz

The Obama and McCain camps "are peddling campaign videos as advertising -- even though they are getting little commercial airtime. ... Among them are one from McCain that alleges Obama supported sex education for kindergartners and one from Obama that says McCain doesn't know how to use a computer or e-mail."

The head of TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group, Evan Tracey, "says the spots are designed to get widespread media attention without the expense of buying airtime" and that "many of the videos are released in time to be displayed and discussed by cable news commentators." Tracy: "It's getting just silly that the ads they are putting out are represented as real spots."

Tracey: "You used to hide the harder-edge message in radio and direct mail. What you have now is that the campaigns say, 'Hey, [MSNBC's] Morning Joe is a food fight, let's supply the tomatoes."

"The ads that get little actual airtime spread the perception that the two campaigns are running exceptionally negative campaigns" (AP, 9/18).

Chicago Tribune's Stone writes, "The core of the strategy is simple: Consultants, political spokespersons and even the candidates systematically repeat a false statement about their opponent's positions, statements or actions. The very assertion of the falsehood puts the target on the defensive. If he ignores the false accusation, it gains traction. If he disputes the lie, he dignifies it, gives it greater publicity and sounds suspicious. If he calls the lie a lie, he comes across as accusatory and mean-spirited" (9/18)

Pressed Into A Corner

"The flocks of campaign reporters who fly around the country" with the candidates "have been more sidelined" in WH'08 "than any in generations.... Not only do the reporters have little interaction with the candidates, but increasingly they are having little impact on the broad campaign narratives and daily story lines that supply most voters with their impressions of the candidates."

"That's more often taking place in cable studios or on Web sites far removed from the ceaseless grind of the press bubble.... A combination of technology and iron message discipline by heavily centralized campaigns has consigned these reporters -- once the storied 'boys on the bus' -- largely to feeding off the public material available to almost anyone over the Web, with very little interaction" with the next POTUS.

Obama "is available to the press corps in spurts -- most recently, for an availability" in OH eight days ago. "He has had five press availabilities in the three weeks since" the Dem convo, "several of them focused on Hurricane Gustav."

McCain "has not spoken to the press corps that follows him in five weeks, or invited national reporters onto his bus in more than two months. When reporters asked McCain's traveling adviser, Steve Duprey, to bring the candidate back to talk to them, Duprey went up to the front of the plane and returned -- wearing a McCain mask" (Budoff Brown/Parnes, Politico, 9/18).

"Further, Americans no longer get their news on politics or anything else from three network newscasts and their local paper. The proliferation of outlets which influence the electorate has spurred the campaigns to produce ads that are more likely to break through the conventional clutter and cross the all-important threshold from serious news to pop culture" (Martin, Politico, 9/18).

Here's The Beef

McCain and Obama "have vowed to reform Washington, but watchdog groups want more specifics. ... A coalition of watchdog groups is demanding that both candidates get very specific on the reforms they will implement."

Common Cause, Public Citizen and U.S. PIRG sent letters to McCain and Obama on 9/17, "asking the candidates to reject soft money for the inauguration ceremony" and the '12 convos. "They want the candidates to vow that they won't name top fundraisers to ambassadorships, transition team positions and other important government posts -- except for rare exceptions for unusually qualified individuals. The groups also are asking the candidates to pledge to forgo fundraising" for a pres. library "until after leaving" the WH (Crabtree, The Hill, 9/17).

Mood Swings

"Meet the woman of the year: White, high school-educated and probably on the north side of age 50, she is getting the worst of a bad economy."

"Their profiles change from campaign to campaign, but [they] have been deciding U.S. elections for years." In '96, "they were the 'soccer moms' Bill Clinton captured to win re-election. After 9/11, they morphed into the security moms who helped give George W. Bush a second term. Four years later, they are a little older, and their anxieties have multiplied. Their numbers are enormous: They typically account for as much as 12% of the electorate. The two campaigns are referring to them as Wal-Mart moms, but a better name might be maxed-out moms."

Kerry'04 manager Mary Beth Cahill: "[N]on-college-educated white women are the ultimate swing voters and the ultimate late deciders. They swing back and forth with every new piece of information."

"Given their worries about the direction of the country, their low regard" for Bush "and the fact that women voters normally trend more" Dem "than men do, Obama has some reason to believe he should carry the maxed-out mom vote in the general election" (Tumulty, Time, 9/17).

White Dinner

Obama and McCain on 9/17 "agreed to participate in what historian and author Theodore H. White once called 'a ritual of American politics' -- the annual Alfred E. Smith Memorial Foundation Dinner."

The 63rd annual dinner on 10/16 at NYC's Waldorf-Astoria hotel "has been a requisite stop for most politicians since the end of World War II. The white-tie affair has featured a galaxy" of world leaders as speakers. The dinners "are generally lighthearted affairs benefiting a foundation that has raised millions for health care causes" (AP, 9/18)

Better Know A Nominee?

"It may be a longshot, but the Mark Twain Boyhood Home & Museum in Hannibal is asking" McCain and Obama to come to Hannibal, MO, for a debate -- with Comedy Central host Stephen Colbert as the moderator.

"No date has been announced, but Colbert's staff provided dates when he is available if the candidates should accept. Museum board member Cindy Lovell says the debate is in keeping with the spirit of Twain, who spent his childhood in Hannibal and who often commented on politics. The museum says that since Twain often used humor in his political commentary, Colbert would be the perfect fit for moderator" (AP, 9/17)

Rocky Mountain Riding High

Roll Call's Rothenberg writes, "Two months ago in this space, I identified five states" -- OH, CO, VA, NV, and MI -- that will decide the next POTUS. But as WH'08 "has developed, those five states seem to hold the same predictive value now that they did then."

"I've become convinced that my initial list of five states probably can be boiled down to just one -- one state that is most likely to determine who will be the next" POTUS. "And that state" is CO.

If McCain carries CO, "I'd expect him to hold onto all" of Bush's '00 states, "with the exception" of NH. "If he does that, and if Obama holds all of Al Gore's states, plus NH, "McCain would win 274 electoral votes to 264 for Obama. If Obama carries the state, he has altered the arithmetic of the Electoral College so as to make it difficult for McCain to win" (9/18).

Editor-in-Chief: Amy Walter

Executive Editor: John Mercurio

Managing Editor: Quinn McCord

Senior Editors: Maura O'Brien, Tim Sahd, and Reid Wilson

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