Monday, Aug. 18, 2008
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Two-Timing Dems
Christine Jennings (D-FL 13) and Larry Kissell (D-NC 08), two Dems who came this close to winning in '06, are hoping that they can break the curse of the two-time challenger in '08. At this point, however, their chances look murky.
-- A new GOP poll in NC-08 shows Hayes up 10 pts over Kissell. A 6/08 Dem poll had the two statistically tied. Who's right? Hayes has never proven to have a strong hold on this CD. But, in a "normal" year, Hayes would likely benefit from presidential turn-out. This year, of course, the top of the ticket could actually help Dems in NC. But if an Obama wave never materializes, can Kissell, who lacks name ID and cash really get there on his own?
---Controversy continues to play a part in FL-13. Jennings' latest ad focuses on reports that Buchanan's ex-employees are suing him for allegedly forcing them to contribute to his campaign. But are voters in this CD tired of the drama? GOPers say that Jennings pushed her '06 case too far and as a result is not a credible messenger. Perhaps this is why the ad takes on a lighter tone. No grainy images or dark music. Instead we get "The People's Court" theme music. Is this a sign of things to come, or just a soft start to what ultimately turns into a hard-hitting brawl?
Did You Ever Notice...
... how angry some candidates get when a governor makes a pre-primary endorsement, say, Crist for FL-16's Rooney ?
Monday, Aug. 18, 2008
Open Seats
LOUISIANA 04 (R/SHREVEPORT -- MCCRERY)
1. Establishment Versus Change
The closed primary in the LA-04 "will turn more on personality and campaign strategy than on disagreements over issues."
"Turnout is expected to be very low," and "few are predicting the outcome. Most agree no candidate will win 51 percent of the vote, leading to a runoff" 10/4. Businessman Chris Gorman (R), atty Jeff Thompson (R), and physician John Fleming (R) "have all run commercials touting their conservative credentials and have sought endorsements from soncervative organizations." Thompson "has been endorsed by" Rep. Jim McCrery (R) and GOP House leaders and "is viewed as the GOP establishment candidate, while Gorman and Fleming are running as outsiders" (Radelat, Lafayette Advertiser, 8/18).
Editor-in-Chief: Amy Walter
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