From the House Race Hotline for Thursday, Nov. 5, 2009

This Means War?

Thursday, Nov. 5, 2009


It'll be awhile until we know whether the GOP's mess in NY-23 will spill into other House primaries featuring a moderate and a conservative, but here are a few other lessons we learned on 11/3: -- Whether the GOP likes it or not, "tea party" candidates are popping up in many CDs this cycle, including just today in NRCC Chair Pete Sessions' (R-TX 32) CD. NY-23's Doug Hoffman's (C) relative "success" looks to be spawning even more copycats, even though very few of the "tea party" candidates already in '10 races have made much of a splash. Hoffman's well-financed bid may well represent the movement's high-water mark, but challengers with the title "activist" have shown up lots in recent weeks, and we expect that trend to continue. -- While the GOP believes the VA GOV results portend bad things for Dem freshmen there in '10, 11/3 also provided a good bit of news for the party in a place where it has lacked good news in a long time: the suburbs. In four Philly suburban counties, a socially conservative GOP nominee for the state's highest court took 54%, which was higher than her statewide total. And in NY's Westchester Co., a GOPer knocked off a three-term county exec. Nassau Co. Exec. Tom Suozzi (D) is also clinging to a surprisingly slim lead, too. So while voters have deserted federal GOP candidates recently, they're still around for local races. Can NY-19, PA-06 and PA-07 GOPers get these voters to stick around in '10?

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