From the House Race Hotline for Thursday, July 2, 2009

Celebrating Their Independence?

Thursday, July 2, 2009


Despite some Dems' best efforts to create an independent image for themselves, GOPers, and Pres. Obama, are making it hard for them to do so. -- The fact the NRCC's hitting Tom Perriello (VA-05) in a TV ad for his 6/26 vote for the energy bill isn't the most remarkable characteristic of that ad. It's that Pres. Obama is featured prominently in it. The GOP knows its fate is tied to Obama's. If he's doing well heading into the midterm, Dems are in good shape. If not, Perriello, and several similar Dems, in deep trouble in their lean-GOP CD. -- But even those who strayed from Dem leadership (like Kathy Dahlkepmer (D-PA 04) and NC-08's Larry Kissell) on the cap-and-trade vote are being reminded with summer visits from Obama admin. officials to their CDs that they still have "D"s after their names. Obama still enjoys high approval ratings, and these Reps. have no reason to run away from him. But if things head south for him, a photo-op with VP Biden come back to haunt these Dems. -- If the enviro. stays the way it is now (Dems hold an 8% advantage in the latest generic ballot), these independent Dems in GOP-leaning CDs will be fine in '10. But just in case Obama starts losing significant support, the GOP is beginning to build its case that House Dems should suffer along with him.

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