From The Hotline for Wednesday, July 1, 2009

"This Is When It Gets Hard"

Wednesday, July 1, 2009


When will we know Pres. Obama's honeymoon is over? When GOPers feel confident enough to run a TV ad in a swing district that links the new pres. to a vulnerable House Dem. That happened today in VA-05, where the NRCC is hitting freshman Rep. Tom Perriello (D) for backing Obama's energy bill.

-- Perriello's district is an interesting place for GOPers to revisit the strategy they first deployed (w/little success) in the MS-01 special last year. McCain carried VA-05, but only by 3 pts.; its African-American population (24%) is VA's third highest. And while the energy bill carries big risks (Perriello acknowledged that vulnerable Dems "are going to take a political hit" for backing it), the Obama-heavy spot seems more focused on linking Perriello to the president (and Pelosi) than to the controversial bill.

-- The NRCC chose to make this play at a time when Obama's poll numbers are starting to slide from the mid-60s to the high-50s. And while GOPers continue to stumble through their own weekly scandals/missteps, the outsized influence they're wielding in the health-care debate reveals a party with signs of life.

-- Is his honeymoon over? Obama seems to think so. "This is when it gets hard," he said 7/29 p.m. at a Dem fundraiser in Chicago. He hasn't crashed to earth yet. But from now on, he'll need more than '08 afterglow to carry his agenda across the finish line.

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