From the House Race Hotline for Thursday, June 18, 2009

Fits To A "Tea"

Thursday, June 18, 2009


At first glance, recent polling offers little evidence that GOPers are poised for a strong mid-term. But look just beneath the surface, and you'll see that trouble may be brewing for Dems.

-- Numbers from the NBC News/WSJ and CBS/NYT polls show the GOP hitting all-time lows in public approval. On the other hand, Dems and Obama appear to be holding their strong ratings.

-- But there are warning signs for Dems. The deficit and gov't spending have shot up the list of top issues, and, at least according to the NBC poll, is the clear #2 priority for voters. To whom are voters looking to fix the problem? Clearly not Obama, as 60% of CBS' respondents say he doesn't have a plan to address the burgeoning deficit.

-- Still, right now, they're not blaming Obama or Dems. NBC's poll shows 41% of voters put the blame on George W. Bush, while only 7% blame GOPers. Just just 6% point a finger at Obama. But once we get deeper into health care reform and talk of $1T deficits, will voters still blame Bush?

-- What does all of this mean? While cong. Dems and Obama still enjoy high approval, there's danger on the horizon if they don't begin to address the growing deficit. It's clear from interviews with GOP cong. candidates that they plan to make this a huge part of their campaigns. Will Dems have an answer?

  •  
  •