From the House Race Hotline for Thursday, June 11, 2009

Ten For '10?

Thursday, June 11, 2009


The '10 expectations game has begun in earnest. Some are staying on message (A U.S. News story reports that Dems believe they can limit their losses to 10 seats), while some are not (Min. Whip Eric Cantor says the GOP can regain the majority in '10). -- History suggests that Dems will lose seats this cycle, but nowhere near the number GOPers need to take the House back. Only once since the '50s has the party out-of-power gained more than 40 seats (the number needed by GOPers to re-take the majority) in a president's first mid-term election. -- Or is it possible that Dems could actually gain seats with a popular pres., currently carrying a 65% approval, helming the party? That's only happened once, in '02, when George W. Bush's 65% approval rating gave GOPers a 3-seat gain. -- That's an anomoly, though. In every other president's first midterm since Eisenhower, the party out-of-power has gained seats. Even John Kennedy, whose popularity sat at 74% on election day in '62, couldn't save Dems from losing 4 seats. In '54, GOPers lost 18 seats even though Eisenhower carried a 57% approval at the same time. -- Still, Dems may not be too far off with their prediction. The six presidents who had approvals over 50% saw their parties lose an average of 9 seats in their first midterms. The two under 50% (Reagan and Clinton) saw their parties lose 26 and 52, respectively.

This content is for subscribers of Hotline only.

Remember me on this computer.
Forgot password?

Registering with NationalJournal.com enables subscribers to view our up-to-the-minute analysis and unparalleled coverage of Congress, politics and policy in its entirety. If you would like to continue reading please click on the "Register" button to the right and create a username and password, then activate your subscription(s).

This one-time registration is required to access subscription content on NationalJournal.com and will only take a moment. Subscribe now: Call (800) 424-2921 or email subscriptions@nationaljournal.com.