For the last six weeks, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton "tossed bowling balls and downed shots of whiskey, quaffed beer and invoked the patron saint of Rocky Balboa," praying that PA would "deliver a knockout blow" in the fight for the WH. But in the end, the epic PA primary "was pure NASCAR" -- a hard-fought lap "around an oversized fast track, with no change in leader and more laps to go before the checkered flag."
Going forward, the contest will be focused more around IN, "where polls have shown a tight race and a possible slight Clinton lead," than on NC, which also votes 5/6. That's because Obama "is an overwhelming favorite" in NC, "thanks to the state's large populations of blacks and educated high-tech workers who have broken his way in past primaries" (Bunch, Philadelphia Daily News, 4/23).
More On The Future
Dems, "so energized and optimistic just a few months ago," are finding themselves in a position "few would have expected:" a nod battle unresolved with two candidates engaging "in increasingly damaging attacks." At a time when Dems should be paying attention to John McCain, "the images of both" Clinton and Obama continue to be damaged.
TN Gov. Phil Bredesen (D): "This is exactly what I was afraid was going to happen. They are going to just keep standing there and pounding each other and bloodying each other, and no one is winning. It underlines the need to find some way to bring this to conclusion." More Bredesen: "They both have great strengths, and they also have weaknesses. The sooner it is we end this and try to figure out how to address those weaknesses, the better."
Turning back to PA, while Clinton won she still faces "significant, though certainly not insurmountable, hurdles." And it "remains possible that her candidacy could come to an end in as little as two weeks," when IN and NC vote. Should that be the case, Dems "would presumably have the time and the motivation to heal" their wounds (Nagourney, New York Times, 4/23).
Time's Sullivan reports, had Clinton's margin been slimmer, "the end of the nomination battle might be in sight." But any thought of that evaporated when Clinton arrived at her victory rally in Philly and "triumphantly" declared: "The tide is turning."
The extended race is "clearly getting to Obama, who is noticeably fatigued on the stump and lacks the energy that drew in so many new voters earlier in the primary season." The positive media coverage he previously enjoyed "has been replaced by a tenser relationship." Obama now "limits his availability to the political press corps, and recently snapped at a reporter who tried to ask a question while he was eating breakfast" at a PA diner.
Moreover, the most significant number coming out of the 4/22 primary wasn't Clinton's 10 point margin of victory, but 43. "That's the percentage of Clinton voters who say they would stay home or vote for McCain if Obama" wins the Dem nod. It is "no longer just the Chicken Littles within the party who openly worry about an outcome that leaves large blocks of women or African-Americans frustrated and alienated" (4/23).
Is A Win A Win?
Obama still has the pledged delegate lead and "no matter the results of the remaining nine contests will likely change that fact when the primary season ends" in 5/08. Moreover, Obama "has a 5-1 cash advantage over Clinton's money-strapped" camp, giving him "an even greater edge ahead of the" 5/6 primaries in NC and IN. While Clinton can likely continue to make the argument that "she is more electable in key swing states that are widely expected to determine" the general, it is unclear "if anyone is listening to her" (Davis, "Washington Wire," Wall Street Journal, 4/22).
Looking Ahead
"In a show of confidence that the race would continue," Clinton scheduled events in IN 4/23 and for "later this week." And her "increasingly cash-strapped" camp launched new TV ads in IN and NC "even before the polls closed" in PA. On 4/21 p.m. at Clinton camp headquarters in VA, staffers "were coordinating plans for" MT, which votes 6/3 (Berman, New York Sun, 4/23).
Is There A Silver Lining?
The long campaign is making Obama and Clinton -- if she gets the nod -- "a better candidate, and just maybe a better president." Toughness and resilience "are important attributes, and that is what a long campaign instills in a candidate." So maybe, "this prolonged fight is good" for the Dems. Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-IL 05): "There's only one place where you get ready for being president, and that's a campaign. The White House is like drinking water from a fire hose full blast. Being in a presidential campaign is like drinking water from a fire hose at half blast, at least. Running for the Senate just isn't the same. It just isn't" (Seib, "Capital Journal," Wall Street Journal, 4/23).
The Race Within The Race
In a recent poll by Elon Univ., most NCers "say they will not allow race, gender or age to affect their vote." In the poll, 91% "said race would not make a difference to them," but 54% "said they knew someone who would not vote for a black candidate." Also noteworthy: 79% "said that gender would not make a difference to them," but 63% "said they know someone who would not vote for a woman" (Christensen/Beckwith/Krueger, "Under The Dome," Raleigh News&Observer, 4/19).
Collective Wisdom
Here's a roundup of opinion and analysis from columnists and ed. boards around the country:
•USA Today editorializes, if Obama succeeds in holding off Clinton, "he will still be left in the ironic position of having to prove that someone who grew up with a single mother on food stamps and whose wife hails from the South side of Chicago is not an elitist who can't relate to middle-class concerns." The PA results, "suggest that might not be so easy" (4/23).
•Boston Globe editorializes, PA "pointed out that Clinton and Obama aren't speaking to the same group of voters." For Dems to win in 11/08, "the eventual nominee will have to find a way to motivate them all" (4/23).
•New York Daily News editorializes, "increasingly, voters will confront two questions: Which candidate can they more easily envision ... as President. And which do they handicap as the stronger candidate against McCain" (4/23).
•Chicago Tribune's Tackett writes, Clinton "deserves credit for resilience and persistence, but it is likely that the drumbeat in her party will be for her to seriously consider the next step of her candidacy." For Obama, "though he has consistently said that pledged delegates should decide the contest," he now finds himself "in a position where he needs superdelegates ... to step forward" to put pressure on Clinton (4/23).
•Los Angeles Times' Wallsten writes, in PA, Obama took 44% of the white male vote, a 5% gain from OH. His camp "is likely to use these numbers" in its argument for superdelegates to support him (4/23).
•Rocky Mountain News' Littwin writes, Obama didn't get "blown out" in PA, but he "didn't come nearly as close as he had hoped." He spent "nearly three times as much money on TV ads as Clinton did in a state where he had six long weeks in which to make his case. That's a lot of time and lot of money to overcome demographics." Still, the issue of race "is being talked about again" (4/22).
What's The Lede?
•McClatchy Newspapers' Lightman writes, Clinton's PA victory "means that the Democratic Party's eventual nominee will be badly bruised and could have a tough time rallying the party in the fall" (4/22).
•New York Times' Healy writes, Clinton "scored a decisive victory" over Obama, "giving her candidacy a critical boost as she struggles to raise money and persuade party leaders to let" the battle for the nod continue (4/23).
•Tacoma News Tribune editorializes, McCain "won" the Dem primary in PA. Clinton's win means the fight "goes on," and McCain will be "free to court donors and voters and prepare for the fall campaign in relatively stress-free mode" (4/23).
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