IN "is a state where the two candidates begin on equal footing." For Barack Obama "the raw math suggests a slight advantage." 25% of the vote will come from 2 counties: Marion Co., home to Indianapolis, the capital and IN's largest city, and Lake Co., "Home to industrial Gary, located in the west corner of the state and part of the Chicago media market." Obama "was a household name before the presidential race."
According to ex-Dem chair Robin Winston, 253 precincts have delivered more than 90% of the vote to Dems in recent elections -- and 241 of them are in the Indianapolis-based 7th CD and the Gary-based 1st CD. In Marion Co., Rep. Andre Carson (D) will face off against 3 "credible" Dem challengers, "spiking turnout numbers in the hotly contested" Dem primary.
But OH "had a similar landscape." Winston: "The state right now would lean toward Hillary Clinton because of Evan Bayh's influence." In addition to Bayh, Clinton "has lined up much of" the Dem Party establishment" (Martin, Politico, 4/24). "But if Clinton has an advantage amongst the state's power brokers, Obama appears to have a lead at the grassroots level, and his continued fund raising advantage reflects that." In Mar., INans gave $218.8K to Obama's camp, and $79.6K to Clinton's camp (Gray, Time, 4/23).
"With its major metropolitan area around Indianapolis, the northwestern Indiana steel area that is essentially an extension of the Chicago metropolitan area, a more rural Southern" IN "and assorted urban centers," IN's "political landscape is hard to define."
Univ. Southern IN prof. Brian Polser: "People tend to think of us as a rural, agricultural state, but 70 percent of our population are in urban and suburban areas. One thing we don't have is a significant African-American population." But Polser said that relatively small demographic has an outsized influence over campaigning in a state because it is concentrated in a few urban centers" (Langhorne, Evansville Courier Press, 4/24).
Your Mom Went To College!
IN "has relatively fewer college graduates than either" OH or PA. "But the blue collar population might not offer Clinton the same advantage in" IN that is has in other states. IN's blue-collar workers "are not heavily unionized. Moreover, many of them don't even identify themselves as Democrats and play only minor rolls in organizing and getting out the vote."
What union vote IN does have is concentrated in the northwest corner "where Hoosiers are most familiar with Obama" (Beery, Arlington Heights Daily Herald, 1/24)
A Family Affair
"The issue that dominates the presidential campaign is the one that has ruled life here for years: How to survive in a manufacturing economy that has been gutted, in many voters' views, by foreign trade agreements" (Moore, USA Today, 4/24).
Clinton made her 15th stop in IN 4/23 and the 50th for everyone in her family.(Arlington Heights Daily Herald, 1/24). Clinton indicated 4/23 that IN voters "can expect to hear much more about her plans to revitalize the economy and keep and attract good jobs" (Fahy, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 4/24).
The Obama camp has been running ads in IN since the end of Mar. and has opened 22 offices. Obama could appeal to IN voters "by promoting his ability to end special-interest influence in Washington." The Clinton camp has opened more than 20 offices across the state. Obama held a rally in Evansville 4/22 and a town-hall forum in New Albamay 4/23 (Chozick/Timiraos, Wall Street Journal, 4/24).
"The human battleground will be" GOPers and indies, who can vote in the Dem primary. Both camps have been advertising on IN TV for weeks. "Obama’s potential trump card is his respectable jump shot: he shares the state’s passion for basketball" (Halperin, Time, 4/24).
The Less Things Change, The More They Never Seem The Same
With all the Dem hopefuls talking about change, "they may want to consider this as the wander" IN: "People here practically revolted a few years ago when their governor, Mitch Daniels, pushed to change daylight savings times like most of the country." Change "might not carry quite the same political magic in this state as it has elsewhere."
"Many of the two dozen interviewed" in Kokomo "expressed queasiness over the notions of change that the Democratic candidates have proudly pledged elsewhere" (Davey, New York Times, 4/24).
You've Got To Be Kidding
Indianapolis Star editorializes, "The candidates need to meet for anther debate in Indiana in the next few days. Why another debate toward the end of an exhausting campaign cylce?" The PA debate "was heavily criticized for delving into side issues." Lets "have a debate here that digs into the many serious issues facing the nation and this state" (4/24).
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