From the House Race Hotline for Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2008

Indie Racing

Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2008


John McCain's convo bounce looks like it's beginning to fade, at least according to the Diageo/Hotline poll. But, surprisingly, support for House GOPers is still going up.

-- In today's tracking of the Congressional generic ballot, Dems lead GOPers by a slim 42-37% margin. Since 9/11, GOPers have gained four points on Dems, while McCain has lost three to Barack Obama. If McCain's numbers are tied so closely to House GOP fortunes, why aren't House GOPers also seeing a downtick in support?

-- That's because indies are proping up Cong. GOPers. Hotline poll guru Matt Gottlieb notes indies have gone from giving Dems a 7% margin on 9/11 to giving GOPers a 1% lead in today's track. Many of these indies deserted the GOP in '06 and have remained in the ranks of the unaffiliated as the party remained bogged down in a toxic enviro. But as this WH election season heats up, are these soft GOP types coming home?

-- If this is true, it means that indies are willing to sample what the party has to offer. In that case, these next few weeks are critical for House GOPers.

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