From the House Race Hotline for Friday, May 16,2008

Heading South?

Fri. May 16, 2008


For the first time, the GOP's two special election losses have revealed some cracks in the GOP's Southern armor. What does it portend for 11/08? -- Some GOPers partly blame their MS-01 and LA-06 losses on Dems who masqueraded as pro-life and pro-gun conservatives. That's actually a problem for the GOP. If voters see two candidates who are equally as conservative, and pick the Dem, what does that say about Southerners' party preference? How does that bode for GOPers in LA-04, AL-02 and AL-05, all with conservative Dems? -- To succeed in Southern races, Dems must get their usually considerable African-American base out to the polls. Note DCCC activity right before the MS-01 vote to see how important that is. And it worked in MS and LA. There's still a question as to whether the insertion of Barack Obama into those races helped Dems with this key constituency. And already, GOPers may be adjusting in AL-02, which has a 29% black pop. In a new ad, the GOPer uses Hillary Clinton instead of Obama, to make the liberal argument. -- But with Obama poised to top the Dem ticket this fall, this is a problem for GOPers in some Southern open seats. Conservative Dems who win 40% of the white vote, combined with a strong black turnout, is the GOP's nightmare scenario. And this month, it played out.

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