From the House Race Hotline for Friday, May 9,2008

Fire The Cannon?

Fri. May 9, 2008


Overshadowed by the Vito Fossella (R-NY 13) mess and the GOP special-election losses is an important 5/10 convo in UT-03, where Rep. Chris Cannon (R) will once again test his mettle among the GOP base.

-- If Chris Cannon (R) doesn't get 60% of the vote at the convo, it'll be the third straight time he'll be forced into a primary. Cannon, in his six terms, hasn't been able to set firm roots in the CD. His major problem with conservatives has been his position on immig. But so far it hasn't played a central role in this race, and the candidates mostly agree on the issue.

-- Of his challengers, ex-Juab Co. Prosecutor David Leavitt (R) has raised the most cash. But money hasn't really helped Cannon's past challengers. That's a plus for ex-Gov. aide Jason Chaffetz (R), who's raised just $92K. In '02 and '04, opponents took 42% and 44% respectively, while spending $44K and $350K. There appears to be a big anti-Cannon vote, but getting over that base seems to be the most difficult course for challengers, cash or no cash.

-- Of the two, Leavitt seems like the best bet to knock off Cannon in a primary. But while he has the famous last name (his brother is the ex-Gov) and the money, he doesn't have the compelling issue against Cannon. Without that rationale, could this be an easier race for Cannon than his past contests?

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