From the House Race Hotline for Tuesday, May 6,2008

LOUISIANA 06 (D/BATON ROUGE -- CAZAYOUX)

Voters, Cazayoux Hear Me?

Tue. May 6, 2008


Rep.-elect Don Cazayoux (D) is "set to be sworn in this afternoon on the House floor" to fill the seat vacated by ex-Rep. Richard Baker (R). Speaker Nancy Pelosi "will hold a mock swearing-in ceremony today" at about 1:30 p.m. Cazayoux is the 2nd Dem pickup in a special election this year after Dems took the IL 14 seat "long held" by ex-Rep. Dennis Hastert (R) (Dennis, Roll Call, 5/6).

Better Safe Than Sorry

With Cazayoux earning "less than" 50% of the vote in the 5/3's special election, GOPers and Dems said 5/5 that Cazayoux's seat is "by no means safe this fall." On the GOP side, it's "unclear" whether GOPers will give ex-state Rep. Woody Jenkins (R) "the opportunity to run again or dump him in favor of a less controversial candidate." For his part, Jenkins said he's "strongly considering" seeking the GOP nod again.

Rep. Charles Boustany (R-07): "I would expect a vigorous primary. There are a number of state legislators in the area who could step forward on the Republican side and make this a very good race in the fall" (McArdle, Roll Call, 5/6).

Cookin' With Grease, And Possum

Dem strategist Donna Brazile writes in Roll Call, How did a Dem like Cazayoux win a seat that had been in GOP hands for the past 3 decades, a CD Pres. Bush won "easily" in '00 and '04? By knowing that "all politics is local, and by calling a skunk a low-down dirty possum. ... Cazayoux ... ran a local race focused on local issues," while GOPers "tried to inject" nat'l politics into the race by "attempting" to tie Cazayoux to Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Pelosi -- "a biracial man and two women." At the "end of the day, they failed" (5/6).

The Oracle Weighs In

FNC's Hannity: "This was a district that President Bush carried by 19 percentage points in 2004, and it follows the loss in Speaker Hastert's district that had been held by Republicans for 76 years but for the Watergate year. Are you worried about this as a trend?"

Karl Rove: "I think it's a bad sign. You got to put it in context. We had a terrible candidate. Woody Jenkins is a wonderful person, but a lousy candidate. He lost two races for the United State Senate. The Democrats smartly put forward a very bright and very ambitious and very able state representative who fit the district like a glove, was a pro-life, pro-gun, and went out his way to say so, refused to endorse either Clinton or Obama publicly, distanced himself as far as he could from the national Democrats. But you also then have the demographic in this district that this is a district has received more Katrina refugees from New Orleans than any other part of the country, and as a result, the demographics have changed pretty dramatically in the last couple of years" ("Hannity & Colmes," 5/5).