From the House Race Hotline for Tuesday, May 6,2008

INDIANA/NORTH CAROLINA

Primary Colors

Tue. May 6, 2008


IN 02: White Supremacy And Pornography And Primaries, Oh My!

The IN 02 primary "has proven problematic" for GOPers, who are trying to win the seat back from freshman Rep. Joe Donnelly (D). "Although he has no chance of winning," atty Tony Zirkle (R), "a white supremacist and anti-pornography advocate, is taking some of the spotlight away from nationally recruited entrepreneur Luke Puckett (R)" (Roll Call, 5/6).

IN 05: Hey Big Spender

In the "heavily GOP" area east of Indianapolis, Rep. Dan Burton (R) "is getting his first primary fight in many cycles."

Ex-Marion Co. coroner John McGoff (R) "has charged that Burton is serving the district on autopilot." However, McGoff's effort "is expected to fall short. ... Nonetheless, McGoff scared Burton enough to make" him "spend much more than he has in the past" -- $1.2M through mid-Apr., compared with $817K on his entire re-election bid in '06 (Roll Call, 5/6).

IN 07: Andre The Giant

Rep. Andre Carson (D) "has been in office less than two months, but he has used that time to build up a number of the advantages of incumbency as a firewall" in today's primary.

In addition to his "budding national profile, he could also benefit" from the recent endorsement of Barack Obama (D) "and the extra money that comes with the office." And those two things "will help him guard against two potential pitfalls for his candidacy: a split of the black vote among the three black candidates in the race, and the tremendous financial advantage" of ex-state health commis. Woody Myers (D). If Carson is defeated today, "it will likely be" either because he, Myers and state Rep. Carolene Mays (D) "split the black vote," while white state Rep. David Orentlicher (D) "slides past them, or because Myers has successfully saturated the airwaves" with his $1.6M in self-funding.

The DCCC's Frontline program has helped Carson raise about $500K in less than two months for the primary, while the SEIU PAC has also chipped in $150K in ads. IUPUI prof. Brian Vargus: "It's not so much his incumbency as it is the Carson name, or we could call it the 'Carson incumbency.' He's got to be favored to win it, given the money he's getting from Washington and those other things."

Meanwhile, "turnout is expected to be high in the black community," which makes up 30% of the CD and much of its Dem base, and Obama's "help with those voters could avoid the split that would open the door to Orentlicher."

Vargus, on Carson: "He won his special election by taking big margins in the African-American precincts and with very low turnout in the mixed and mostly white areas. Whether he can keep that margin in those African-American areas and not have somebody else do well in the white areas is an open question" (Blake, The Hill, 5/6).

NC 03: Keeping Up With The Joneses

Rep. Walter Jones (R) faces Onslow Co. commis. Joe McLaughlin (R) on today's ballot, in a match-up "that was hyped early in the cycle but failed to materialize -- largely because McLaughlin raised only" $122K.

Meanwhile, an NC GOP operative said conservative voters in Jones' CD "have been forgiving, particularly on his recent conversion against the Iraq War." The operative: "People remember the good things they've done for the district. ... They know the name and associate it with something good that's been done" (Roll Call, 5/6).

NC 10: Not Expecting The "Two-Bit Security Guard" Vote

A TelOpinion Research poll; conducted 4/29-30; surveyed 350 GOP LVs; margin of error +/- 5% (release, 5/6). Tested: Ret. USAF JAG Lance Sigmon (R) and Rep. Patrick McHenry (R).

Primary Election Matchup

P. McHenry      67%
L. Sigmon       16

McHenry As Rep.

Approve         72%
Disapprove      17

Rep. Patrick McHenry's (R) "toughest challenger" today is ex-JAG Lance Sigmon (R), "who has tried to capitalize -- perhaps unsuccessfully" -- on McHenry's "recent gaffes."

On a trip to Baghdad in Mar. '08, McHenry "had a high-profile run-in with a military contractor, who he termed a 'two-bit security guard'" to NC GOP activists -- "a characterization that was caught on tape." McHenry "was then chided by the Pentagon for posting video footage of his trip" on his cong. website. McHenry "later said he was sorry for posting the video on the Internet and said his characterization of the security guard was 'a poor choice of words.'"

McHenry spokesperson Rebecca Yount: "We've run a positive campaign on the Congressman's strong record of working to promote economic growth and job creation, stopping illegal immigration, and the innovative ideas he has for lowering gas prices. Our opponent has a run a negative campaign based on gutter politics and character assassination" (Roll Call, 5/6).