From the House Race Hotline for Tuesday, May 6,2008

BATTLE

One More Chance

Tue. May 6, 2008


House GOPers are "reeling" from Dem victories in IL and LA special elections, and "sources say another loss" in MS next week "would roil an already poisoned relationship" between Min. Leader John Boehner (OH-08) and NRCC Chair Tom Cole (OK-04). A GOP leadership aide: "Illinois was really bad, Louisiana was worse, if that's possible, but if we don't win in Mississippi, I think you are going to see a lot of people running around here looking for windows to jump out of."

Experts on both sides of the aisle "are privately predicting" that Dems "will pick up" three to eight seats in the fall. Wider losses "would all but guarnatee" that Cole will "quit or be ousted" as chair, "and could threaten Boehner's hold" on the GOP Conference. A GOP lobbyist: "If there is a bloodbath in November, Cole would be gone, but I think you could see Boehner [Min Whip Roy] Blunt [MO-07] and the rest of the leadership be replaced as well."

The NRCC "tried to spin away" the 5/3 LA-06 loss by saying that state Rep. Don Cazayoux's (D) 49% victory was a "warning shot to Democrats" who needed to understand that Barack Obama doesn't "appear to be as salient as they once hoped. But "further underscoring his differences" with Cole, Boehner "will take exactly the opposite approach" when he speaks to GOPers today. A draft of his remarks: "The result of this weekend in Louisiana's 6th Congressional District should serve as a wake-up call to Republican candidates across the country. As I said last week, this is a change election, and Republican candidates must show they are ready to lead a movement for reform" (Bresnahan/O'Connor, Politico, 5/6).

Finding Special Circumstances

Analyst Charlie Cook writes in CongressDailyAM, it's "easy, often tempting, to over-interpret the meaning" of a special election. But the "truth is that there are often unique or local circumstances" that play an important role in determining the outcome of the race.

In LA-06, GOPers "got saddled with" a candiate who was the Pelican State's "answer" to ex-Rep. Katherine Harris (R-FL). "Just as Harris couldn't lose a statewide primary and couldn't win a statewide general election," '96 SEN nominee Woody Jenkins (R) was "very difficult" to beat in a GOP primary but entered the general election "with a walk-in closet of" baggage. A "generic" GOPer would have outperformed Jenkins. The same goes for '08 special nominee/'02/'04 SEN candidate/'06 GOV candidate/dairy magnate Jim Oberweis (R) in IL-14.

And in the 5/13 MS-01 race, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R) is from the Memphis, TN, suburbs, while Prentiss Co. Chancery Clerk Travis Childers (D) is from the "anti-Memphis" suburbs. This situation "has a lot more to do with geography than partisan politics" (5/6).

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