From the House Race Hotline for Tuesday, May 6,2008

INDIANA 09 (D/BLOOMINGTON -- HILL)

Magic Carpet Coattails

Tue. May 6, 2008


Rep. Baron Hill's (D) "political survival" could depend on who "leads the ticket in November." State Univ. of NY Prof. James Campbell: "It certainly makes a difference" in closely fought districts. Campbell "says that a candidate sharing the ballot with a strong presidential nominee can pick up a substantial number of votes." He adds: "Somebody unpopular at the top of the ticket can actually cost you votes."

Hill, who recently endorsed Barack Obama, "conceded that his endorsement was a gamble, especially given the region's conservative tilt." Hill: "If I'd made a political decision, I just would have stayed out of it. The endorsement, I think, in the short run probably won't be helpful to me. I'm hopeful in the long run it will be."

Whether "the endorsement helps or hurts" depends almost entirely "on how Obama is perceived in the fall," should he win the nod. Univ. of IN prof. Gerald Wright: "If Obama can redefine the party away from its old standard Democratic liberalism, as he's trying to do, it could help Hill some. On the other hand, if he gets painted as a black militant ... that would be real bad" (Barabak, Los Angeles Times, 5/6).