After Murtha

As John Murtha's (D) CD mourns his passing, a special election looms. GOPers have a favorable climate and recent history on their side: In '08, John McCain won a CD that John Kerry (D) carried in '04. But Dems have a big registration advantage and own the turf here (they control 5 of the 7 state Senate seats in the CD).

-- Speculation has centered on two long-time Dem fixtures. Ex-LG Mark Singel (D) hasn't been on the ballot since losing the '94 GOV race, and his current profession (lobbyist) won't help his cause either. State Sen. John Wozniak (D) has also been mentioned, but he's been in the legislature since '80, and voted for the controversial pay raise.

-- GOPers won't have it easy either. '08 nominee William Russell (R) can raise boatloads of money and has a loyal following. But will local party leaders, who will pick the nominee, go with a candidate that's lived in the CD for just a few years? If they go with someone else, will grassroots types revolt?

-- Given their flops in even friendlier GOP territory in the last special elections, the pressure is on the NRCC to win here. After all, can anyone take a 40 seat GOP gain seriously if the party can't win a swing district carried by McCain in this environment?