Raising Arizona

GOPers have taken particular interest in AZ in recent days. Late last week, the NRCC rushed its AZ-01 and AZ-05 nominees up to "Young Guns" status, and on 9/7 the cmte decided to add those two seats to its list of TV ad reservations for the fall. What happened?

-- The immigration debate. Just as it immediately transformed the party's prospects in the GOV race overnight, GOPers see the issue as turning the state into very fertile territory this fall. They believe it puts Ann Kirkpatrick's (D-01) and Harry Mitchell's (D-05) seats in direct danger, and also puts Gabrielle Giffords (D-08) on the hot seat, even though the party lost what many considered to be its more electable candidate in the primary.

-- And new GOP polling from these two CDs confirms these suspicions. GOPers hit 50% in the generic ballot in both AZ-01 and AZ-05, and the best either incumbent can muster in head-to-head matchups is 43%. AZ-01 nominee Paul Gosar (R) was nearly broke heading into his primary, but that may not matter. With Dems forced to deal with a 1-2 punch of the economy and immigration, it'll be tough to hang on. And GOPers believe it'll only get tougher for these Dems as the Obama admin. continues to announce plans to sue the state or key figures (including Maricopa Co. Sheriff Joe Arpaio) in connection with the state's controversial immigration law.