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Hotline's Latest Edition

House Race Rankings

The Hotline Assesses Which House Seats Are Most Likely To Switch Party Control This Year.

It's all about cash in this week's House race rankings.

First, national Democrats made very difficult decisions last week and cut off several incumbents who appeared to be lost causes. Those Democrats found their way to the top of our list.

In addition, the end of the third quarter -- the last true fundraising benchmark of the cycle -- has crystallized the playing field, bringing new contests into focus and dropping others from the top of our list.

Here are this week's top races, presented in order of a seat's likelihood of changing hands:

1. Tennessee-06 Open Seat (D) (Last Ranking: 1)
Crickets.
2. New York-29 Special Election (D) (2)
Move along, nothing to see here.
3. Louisiana-03 Open Seat (D) (3)
Democratic polling may show Senate nominee and native son Charlie Melancon closing the gap in his race, but that won't push attorney Ravi Sangisetty (D) over the finish line down the ballot.
4. Arkansas-02 Open Seat (D) (4)
Bill Clinton returned once again last week to rally voters for underdog state Sen. Joyce Elliott (D), but she's not likely to be another comeback kid.
5. Delaware-At Large Open Seat (R) (5)
Developer Glen Urquhart (R) is performing a bit better in his race than GOP Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell is in hers, but it's still not enough to pull off the upset.
6. Louisiana-02 Anh (Joseph) Cao (R) (6)
Cao was endorsed by one of Dem nominee Cedric Richmond's primary challengers last week, but that seems unlikely to balance out Richmond's support from President Obama.
7. Indiana-08 Open Seat (D) (12)
All of the polls have shown heart surgeon Larry Bucshon (R) with a big lead, so it's no surprise that the DCCC cut funding to state Rep. Trent Van Haaften.
8. Tennessee-08 Open Seat (D) (25)
When the DCCC cut off state Sen. Roy Herron, he said his cash was yanked because of his promise to vote against Nancy Pelosi for Speaker. Of course it had nothing to do with polls consistently showing him trailing by double digits.
9. Ohio-01 Steve Driehaus (D) (13)
Driehaus blasted national Democrats for calling it quits here and wondered why they weren't funding incumbents who took tough votes, like he did on health care. This is the last thing Democrats need to be dealing with now.
10. Kansas-03 Open Seat (D) (10)
Stephene Moore (D) has just $87,000 left in the bank for the campaign's final weeks, and the DCCC has already said it won't provide any additional air support. It's over.

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