From The Hotline for Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2009

Conservatively Speaking

Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2009


One talking point circulating today is that conservatives have "hijacked" the GOP. But throughout their campaigns, Christie, McDonnell and Hoffman have underplayed, not overplayed, their conservative creds and support.

-- The "thesis" story didn't kill McDonnell's chances in VA among indies, not because they've suddenly become more conservative, but because McDonnell downplayed those views w/out angering his conservative base. That wasn't an easy feat. It's similar to how M. Warner touted his support for gun rights in '01 w/out alienating NoVa.

-- In NJ, Christie made a conscious choice to dodge polarizing GOP figures and causes. To win in NJ, a GOPer needs three things: A flawed Dem (check); a good enviro. (check); and a flawless campaign (hmmm, not so much). Even if Corzine does prevail, it won't be because he won over indies.

-- And in NY-23, Hoffman's gotten ahead w/ indies because he, and his benefactors, kept the focus on spending, taxes and DC - not on conservative ideology. It was only late in the game that conservatives like Palin and Glenn Beck embraced him. In fact, we'd argue had they been on board from the beginning, Hoffman wouldn't have gotten as much early traction as he did.

-- Finally, if you look at the ads run in all 3 contests (as The Hotline has done in these handy word clouds) one word stands out: taxes. Forget all the other rhetoric: It's still the economy, stupid.

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