From the House Race Hotline for Monday, Nov. 2, 2009

The Dede Is Done

Monday, Nov. 2, 2009


It's completely fitting that the NY-23 race ends on such a chaotic note. Assemb. Dede Scozzafava's (R) departure, and subsequent endorsement of atty Bill Owens (D), means that almost everyone is flying in the dark as we head into Election Day. -- Today's Siena poll is no help in finding our way. Accountant Doug Hoffman (C) now leads, 41-36%, but his previous advantage among indies is gone. Could it be that these voters are a bit nervous about supporting the GOP establishment's new candidate? Scozzafava's endorsement may help Owens increase his lead among indies, but she's pretty unpopular with that crowd (only 21% of them view her favorably). One place where Scozzafava is certain to help Owens is in her home Watertown region, where he and Hoffman are now tied. -- Still, most Dems don't express much hope that the race will go their way tomorrow. But some see a loss as a "gift" in terms of the damage it'll do to the GOP's hopes in '10, as they believe it'll scare moderates and woman away from the GOP. -- But a Hoffman win would signify some bad news for Dems, too. It would confirm that the GOP grassroots are fired up, and were able to propell a no-name Conservative Party candidate to victory in a CD Obama won just a year ago. So while Dems may delight in the GOP's internal woes, a loss would expose a significant voter motivation problem within their own ranks.

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