From the House Race Hotline for Monday, June 15, 2009

Hello, Again, Hello

Monday, June 15, 2009


When it came to GOPers who helped destroy their own '08 re-election bids, ex-Reps. Bill Sali (R-ID) and Virgil Goode (R-VA) rank near the top of the list. Still, as each are contemplating repeat bids, they're not being treated equally within their primary fields. -- Goode's been getting the benefit of the doubt, as other potential GOPers (who may be more viable than he is) are letting him decide on the race before they enter. The same can't be said for Sali, who just saw ID House Maj. Caucus Chair Ken Roberts (R) jump into the race against Walt Minnick (D-ID 01). Several other GOPers are strongly considering bids there, too. -- Analysts agree that both ran sloppy '08 campaigns (Goode wasn't prepared for a competitive, modern race, while Sali was, well, Sali). But some GOPers believe Goode, who's still well liked in VA-05, would give the party a good chance at recapturing the seat in a race that won't feature Pres. Obama atop the ticket. Sali, on the other hand, left his '08 race with a near 50% unfav rating, a number that will doom any bid, especially one against Minnick, who has already shown a certain deftness in straddling the line between his Dem label and the overwhelming GOP nature of the CD. The bottom line: Not all repeats are equal. If Sali runs, and is the nominee, the GOP will have a very difficult time winning back that seat. A Goode candidacy, though, wouldn't doom the party in VA-05.

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