From The Hotline for Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Giving Us Pawlenty To Think About

Wednesday, June 3, 2009


Athletes, pols and late-night talk-show hosts agree: It's best to leave on top. T-Paw is leaving office w/decent numbers and, as he noted 6/2, a lead in '10 polls. Even so, he's pledged to close a looming deficit by cutting $3B (and not raising taxes). Those cuts cause troubles in re-election campaigns, but endear him to nat'l conservatives he'd need to court for '12.

-- Even so, leaving office means you lose your bully pulpit. The landscape is littered with "formers" who couldn't translate past success into victory. The Sam's Club rhetoric is attractive today; will it resonate in '12?

-- What does this mean for Coleman? Another GOV bid could provide a nice landing if the MN supremes rule against him. Even so, the process has hurt his standings; An Apr. 8 poll showed his unfavs at 55%. But if he doesn't appeal the decision and urges Pawlenty to sign Franken's election certificate, will all be forgiven?

-- If Coleman doesn't run for GOV, his party lacks big names. Plus, the convo process helps conservatives, who often aren't the most electable in MN. (Think Michelle Bachman v. Jim Ramstad. Ramstad's the better candidate in Nov., but his moderate profile would give him troubles w/the base).

--In the end, it's not clear if Pawlenty's decision helps him in '12. But it does give MN Dems, who haven't won a GOV race since '86, a good chance to win it.

  •  
  •