From The Hotline for Thursday, Oct. 30, 2008

Let Them Eat Cake

Thursday, Oct. 30, 2008


The days of discomfort and self-doubt are upon us. Are we missing something? Is the polling wrong? Can we trust the early-vote data? We don't have a crystal ball, but here's what we can see from our vantage point:

--The predicted tightening is happening. Obama's lead in the Diageo/Hotline tracking was 8 pts last weekend weekend, dropped to 7 pts 10/29 and is 6 pts today. McCain's doing better among men, while Obama has lost ground among indies. Yet, the gender gap still benefits Obama (he leads among women by 17 pts) and Obama's ahead among indies by 6 pts.

-- More important, our analysis of the undecided voters turned up no hidden "Bradley Effect" voters. In fact, the number crunchers at Pollster.com predict that these voters will ultimately split 54% for Obama and 46% McCain.

-- To be sure, Obama's not a slam dunk in many battleground states now leaning his way. NC and OH are still 50-50. And many Dems still view FL as the Great White Whale. But Obama continues to poll well in CO and VA, so those other states could just be the icing, not the batter.

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