From The Hotline for Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2008

KEYS TO THE WHITE HOUSE

Eruca Sativa Obama

Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2008


Since last week's edition of Keys To The White House, Barack Obama has increased his nat'l lead over John McCain from 5% to 8%. Obama's overall improvement was mirrored by noticeable growth among key Hotline demographic groups, primarily Suburban Sprawlers and Whole Foods Women. The Dem nominee also saw slight increases with McCain Mavericks, while McCain recouped some ground among Winn-Dixie Women.

One week ago, in the sample conducted 10/1-7, Obama led Suburban Sprawlers (college-educated indies) by 7%; in today's release, his margin has more than doubled to 16%. Meanwhile McCain's lead among Whole Foods Women (married, white, college-educated women) basically evaporated this week. The GOP nominee led the group by 15% one week ago, but today McCain holds less than a 1% advantage.

The only good news for McCain lies with Winn-Dixie Women (single, white, non-college women) -- a group he trailed by 11% on 10/7. Today, the AZ Sen. is just 7% behind Obama, halfway back to his 3% deficit of two weeks ago. And among McCain Mavericks (Bush disapprovers), Obama gained 3% while McCain remained static, allowing the IL Sen. to recapture his 40%+ margin of weeks past.

Obama's 48-40% overall lead is his third straight statistically significant margin; last week, the Dem led 45-40%. Today's survey, conducted 10/8-14, queried 2,113 RVs and has a margin of error of +/- 2.1%.

For a full explanation of the demographic groups tracked, please see the original Keys To The White House, published 9/17.

The weekly trends below display survey data for the seven days ending in the date specified. For instance, the column headed "9/30" includes survey data from 9/24-30. One exception, the 9/9 column extends for eight days, reflecting data taken 9/2-9.

WH '08 General Election Matchup/ All Voters

Sample ending   10/14   10/7   9/30   9/23   9/16   9/9
Sample size     2113    2119   2116   2129   2125   2449
-------------
Obama/Biden     48%     45%    47%    47%    45%    45%
McCain/Palin    40      40     42     43     44     42
Undec            7       9      9      8      9     10

McCain Mavericks/ Bush Disapprovers

Sample ending   10/14   10/7   9/30   9/23   9/16   9/9
Sample size     1456    1442   1428   1434   1369   1615
-------------
Obama/Biden     65%     62%    66%    66%    65%    65%
McCain/Palin    23      23     22     23     22     22
Undec            8       9     10     10     11     11

Suburban Sprawlers/ College-Educated Inds

Sample ending   10/14   10/7   9/30   9/23   9/16   9/9
Sample size     167     208    178    169    199    217
-------------
Obama/Biden     47%     42%    51%    40%    43%    40%
McCain/Palin    31      35     32     38     39     37
Undec           15      14     15     18     16     18

Whole Foods Women/ White, Married, College-Educated Women

Sample ending   10/14   10/7   9/30   9/23   9/16   9/9
Sample size     265     291    315    337    264    311
-------------
McCain/Palin    46%     51%    47%    45%    47%    42%
Obama/Biden     45      36     44     46     42     47
Undec            5       8      8      6     10     11

Winn-Dixie Women/ White, Unmarried, Non-College-Educated Women

Sample ending   10/14   10/7   9/30   9/23   9/16   9/9
Sample size     171     167    162    148    155    199
-------------
Obama/Biden     46%     47%    44%    40%    39%    41%
McCain/Palin    39      36     41     47     48     44
Undec           11      10     12     12     11     12

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