Slate's Dickerson contends that "all that matters" in this election "is what happens in the 15 or so states that will determine whether Barack Obama or John McCain will win the 270 electoral votes necessary to become the next president. ... The number of battleground states is not fixed," since "different news organizations have varying counts."
In order to identify swing states, "we start with the states that historically have been close and then look at the current polls. ... Statewide polls can be unreliable, though, because of small samples and crazy methodology, so analysts also look at other cues like party registration. If the party that is traditionally the underdog is signing up lots of new voters -- perhaps enough to make up for the 2004 margin -- it might hint that the state is really in play."
"There is really only one iron-clad rule" for determining which states are swing states: "Don't listen to what the campaigns say," but rather "watch where the campaigns spend their time and money. The best way to tell whether a campaign is serious about a state is if the campaigns are spending money on advertisements and staff and offices in the state. And the most important indicator is how much time the candidate is spending in the state."
Once both camp identify "their battleground states, they run a two-track strategy": reaching out to "their base with highly partisan appeals" and hunting "for those weakly committed and undecided swing voters. ... A lot of people who are registered independents turn out to be hidden partisans, and a portion of those who are registered in one of the two parties are nevertheless up for grabs."
Swing voters often live in the suburbs and "tend to be less engaged with the campaign than partisans and are slightly less educated and more moderate. Swing-voter makeup varies from state to state." In states like CO, NM and NV, "Latino voters play a larger role." In states like PA, OH and MI, "the uncommitted voters tend to be older, whereas in growth states like" CO, NV and VA "they tend to be younger" (9/30).
Divorced From Reality
According to Generational-Targeted Marketing Corp. pres. Ann Fishman, divorced women between the ages of 29 and 47 could be a crucial voting bloc in this election. Fishman: "If you're a divorced Gen X woman, you've got all the power in the world right now. ... They are the swing vote. ... They are central to the election, but no one is paying attention to them."
Fishman describes these "Generation X" women "as honest, straight-forward, market-savvy, self-sufficient and practical." Both Sarah Palin and Obama "are Gen Xers." Fishman: "(Gen Xers) are the first generation that's gender neutral and colorblind. ... There's nothing that would make a Gen Xer happier than putting or an African-American into office. But (they're) not going to vote based on that. (They're) going to decide who is the best qualified person for the job."
However, Wesley College assistant prof. Victor Greto "isn't so sure about Fishman's predictions." Greto: "I don't know, or think, that they'll be the swing vote in this election, but John McCain's vice-presidential choice, Sarah Palin, may bring some of their interests - and their attention - into play in the presidential race. ... After Hillary Clinton's Democratic primary defeat by Barack Obama, some of these women may be directing their attention toward Palin as a person with whom they can relate or understand. ... But only up to a point. Palin is doggedly married, a conservative Christian and anti-abortion. We don't know if the voting preference of divorced women from 29-47, with or without kids, will be based on gender more than those hot-button issues" (Divorce360.com, 9/30).
What's The Value Of A Great Study?
Beliefnet.com pres./editor-in-chief Steven Waldman claims that, "thanks to the economic problems," even "'values voters' care less about values." A recent survey by the Univ. of Akron, known as the "Twelve Tribes" survey, "showed that just 13% of voters listed moral issues as their primary concern, half the percentage as in 2004."
"Among members of the Religious Right, the percentage emphasizing social issues plummeted to 37.2% from 50.7%, while the portion emphasizing the economy rose to 40% from 18%. Among the Heartland Culture Warriors - consisting of conservative Catholics, conservative mainline Protestants and Mormons -- 57% now list the economy first, compared with 28% in 2004. And, significantly, among Latinos - almost half of whom worship weekly - the emphasis on the economy has shot up to 61% from 48%."
What's particularly notable is that the survey "was conducted this summer, before the most recent financial crisis. If anything the primacy of economic issues has grown since then." While this "creates huge opportunity for" Obama "to win over voters who might otherwise find him too liberal on social issues," Dems "can easily misread this data," since "many of the swing voters care more about the economy but have not moved to the left in terms of what they want done."
The survey has "revealed several other important politics trends":
• "A massive shift among Latino Protestants is what has fueled the hugely important move of Hispanics to the" Dems. "As of this summer, 33% of Latino Protestants were for Sen. McCain, 48% for Sen. Obama" compared to 2004 when 50% went for George W. Bush and 26% preferred John Kerry.
• Dems "have made great progress in converting the 'Democratic dissenters.' ... The Religious Left has always leaned Democratic but in 2004 only 51% had been willing to call themselves Democrats. Now, 63% do."
• Some religious swing voters "have become more pro-choice on abortion."
• "The Religious Left is roughly the same size as the Religious Right, each accounting for roughly 13% of the population" (Wall Street Journal, 9/30).
Don't Ask Me How The Economy Works
While the GOP-led "defeat of President Bush's bailout plan" caused "the stock market" to fall "an unprecedented 777.68 points, wiping out, by one estimate" $1.2T, "the greater and more lasting damage may be to the" GOP itself. "The events" of 9/29 "could well be remembered as the start of a decadeslong exile from power." While McCain still remains competitive against Obama, "the GOP has virtually no hope of retaking Congress; indeed, it's projected to lose seats in both the House and the Senate."
"The central con of the political coalition assembled by Ronald Reagan and maintained by his successors was that government was a common enemy. ... This was a con for two reasons. First, the middle and upper classes were both dependent on the federal government for a variety of benefits, including Social Security, trade protection, scientific research, and assorted localized spending. ... Second, the distribution of this government largesse greatly favored the rich."
The proposed $700B bailout "made it hard for" GOPers "to cling to their cherished illusion that government exists only to indulge spendthrift widows and orphans. Moreover, the $700 billion was needed to save the very beau idéal of conservatism, the free market." To a GOP "that had come to believe its own propaganda, this simply didn't compute. So House Republicans voted against their standard bearer's own bailout by a margin of two to one, a dose of free-market principles that sent the Dow into the crapper" (Noah, Slate, 9/30).
November, Already?
"[E]arly voting... is becoming more common and is likely to account for one-third of all ballots cast" 11/4, up from 14% in 2000. "The change has not been lost on the campaigns, whose strategists have adjusted their operations... to woo those who cast ballots early." RNC spokesperson Alex Conant: "Every vote we get in early is one less to run down on Election Day."
Campaign Media Analysis Group's Evan Tracey, on the Obama camp's recent OH ad "explicity aimed at early voters": "It was engineered just for that purpose, and it is the sort of thing you see campaigns doing more of."
The trend "does not benefit one party over the other... because each is targeting infrequent voters." For the Dems, "that means urban, often minority voters and students." For the GOP, "it is older voters and those in more rural areas who favor absentee ballots."
Each election cycle brings in more states that "have adjusted voting rules to accommodate voters seeking convenience." GOP strategist Benjamin Ginsberg claims that "'there has been a dawning of awareness' of the opportunity early voting presents to campaigns."
"The risks of early voting... include increased potential for fraud and voter error. ... It is easier for voters to obtain multiple ballots or to be improperly influenced in casting their votes, and there is no mechanism to alert them to mistakes on their ballots. It also carries the possibility of buyer's remorse if there are late surprises in the campaign, because in most states, there is no opportunity to take back a ballot once it has been cast" (Flaherty, Washington Post, 10/1).
Social Security Snafu
Senate Rules and Administration Chair Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and election officials "are warning that a shutdown of the Social Security Administration's computer grid over the Columbus Day holiday may throw last-minute nationwide voter registration efforts into disarray." Feinstein, in a letter to Social Security Commis. Michael Astrue: "With millions of newly registered voters, and many more registering to vote every day, state and local election registrars are working seven days a week to get new voters on the list. ... The days when the SSN database is scheduled to be off-line are critical."
According to Feinstein, "the shutdown could affect registration efforts in a dozen states whose registration deadlines fall within a week of the planned shutdown." Dem-nominated Election Assistance Commission chair Rosemary Rodriguez "put the number of states likely affected by the shutdown at 41." Rodriguez, in a letter to Astrue: "In some states, the inability to compare new registrants to SSA's database may result in voters having to produce additional identification on Election Day or having to cast provisional ballots. ... As we approach the November 4th Election, Americans are registering to vote in record numbers and it is important that election officials are given the tools and support to process these applications."
"A handful of historically Republican-leaning states that Democrats are now targeting have fast-approaching registration deadlines that may be affected by the shutdown," including NC, VA, NM and MI. Voting rights expert Wendy Weiser "agrees with Rodriguez's and Feinstein's calls to reschedule the agency's network outage," claiming it "will seriously impair the ability of states to process new voter registrations before the November 4 election." Weiser: "In every election, there is a huge spike in voter registrations in the period right before the voter registration deadline. ... Florida, for example, typically receives between 13 and 20 percent of its new voter registrations in the week before the deadline" (Murray, Roll Call, 10/1).
Own It
"The only thing the 2003 election reform law demanded" was "that politicians acknowledge in their own voices their responsibility for advertisements they run on public airwaves." Five years later, "the 'I approved' has become a pivotal device in commercials for Congress and" the WH, "a place for candidates to make a declaration of intent, summarize the message or take a parting shot." GOP strategist Eric Potholm: "You try to fit it in where it's the least distracting. ... You don't want it to sound clunky. I tend to like to do it in the body of the ad or toward the end, something like, 'I approved this ad because I want to do a, b or c.'"
"The intent of the law" was to "inform the public of who paid for the advertisement and to discourage candidates from slinging mud at each other." Vanderbilt Univ. prof. John Geer: "This reform was completely counterproductive. ... Everybody complains about the sound bite as it is and here we took the ad and made it shorter. And it didn't work. The 2004 campaign was more negative than 2000 by far" (Friess, New York Times, 10/1).
Serious Appeal
The Supreme Court's term, which begins next week, "underscores the president's power to shape the court's ruling through his top courtroom lawyer, the solicitor general." Either Obama or McCain "will be able to steer the court on a host of questions concerning terrorism, civil rights and business." Akin Gump atty Tom Goldstein: "It just is impossible to overstate the influence of the solicitor general's office and their advocates and how much the justices look to them for guidance" (Stohr, Bloomberg, 10/1).
Schoolin'
While both candidates believe that "college should be affordable to anyone, and the process of getting federal aid is more complicated than it should be," there are "difference in how each would tackle" the issue of paying for college. "Obama's proposals are more detailed - and more expensive. They reflect an assumption that government should do more to help students pay for college. McCain's proposals are more general and emphasize streamlining the aid system." McCain "calls for making more information available to parents and eliminating wasteful spending on pork-barrel university projects" (Pope, AP, 10/1).
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