From The Hotline for Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2008

SENATE SCOREBOARD

Dems Getting A High Five

Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2008


The chart below reflects the most recent reputable state polls received by The Hotline, updated as new polls arrive. 35 seats are up in '06 (23R, 12D); 65 Seats are not up (26R, 39D), for a current Senate of 51D, 49R. (D+) or (R+) indicates the poll shows a lead outside the margin of error.

GOP SEATS                        DEM SEATS
Not Up In '08         26         Not Up In '08         39
W/Leads Outside MoE*  40         W/Leads Outside MoE*  53
W/All Leads           44         W/All Leads           56

* = Includes all unpolled incumbents, giving VA and NM to Dems
Current Pick-Ups: VA, NM, CO, NH, OR (Dems)

Incumbent        GOP Dem  Pollster       Date        +/- Lead
AL Sessions (R)  *******NO RELIABLE POLLING AVAILABLE*******
AK Stevens (R)   46  44   Moore (R)      9/2-9/3     4.4  R
                 46  49   AnchPress/KTUU 8/30-9/2    4.4  D
                 39  56   AnchPress/KTUU 8/9-8/12    4.4  D+
AR Pryor (D)     *******NO RELIABLE POLLING AVAILABLE*******
CO OPEN (R)      34  45   Harstad (D)    9/7-9/9     3.6  D+
                 39  40   Tarrance (R)   9/2-9/3     4.4  D
                 38  41   Hill (R)       8/23-24     4.2  D
                 31  39   Suffolk Univ.  8/21-8/24   4.6  D
DE Biden (D)     *******NO RELIABLE POLLING AVAILABLE*******
GA Chambliss (R) 54  36   Strgic Vis (R) 9/7-9/9     3.5  R+
                 43  36   Mellman (D)    8/6-8/10    4.0  R
                 57  28   Strgic Vis (R) 6/27-6/29   3.5  R+
ID OPEN (R)      41  30   Greg Smith     8/18-8/22   4.0  R+
                 42  32   Research 2000  7/28-7/30   4.4  R+
                 43  28   Lake Res. (D)  5/20-5/25   4.4  R+
IL Durbin (D)    *******NO RELIABLE POLLING AVAILABLE*******
IA Harkin (D)    20  59   Research 2000  4/21-4/23   4.0  D+
KS Roberts (R)   54  34   TargetPnt (R)  6/27-7/1    1.8  R+
                 48  36   Cooper/Sec (D) 6/5-6/8     3.5  R+
                 50  38   Research 2000  6/2-6/4     4.0  R+
KY McConnell (R) 53  35   V/C Rsrch (R)  9/7-9/9     3.3  R+
                 49  38   Research 2000  7/28-7/30   4.0  R+
                 50  39   V/C Rsrch (R)  6/15-6/17   4.1  R+
LA Landrieu (D)  40  46   SoMedia/OpRes  6/26-6/28   4.0  D
                 33  49   Mellman (D)    5/17-5/20   4.0  D+
MA Kerry (D)     *******NO RELIABLE POLLING AVAILABLE*******
ME Collins (R)   57  38   Research 2000  9/8-9/10    4.0  R+
                 50  40   Crtcl Insghts  6/1-6/27    4.0  R+
                 56  31   Pan Atlantic   6/10-6/18   5.0  R+
MI Levin (D)     28  58   Strtgc Vis (R) 9/5-9/7     2.8  D+
                 27  59   EPIC-MRA       8/18-8/21   4.0  D+
                 32  58   EPIC-MRA       7/13-7/16   4.0  D+
MN Coleman (R)^  41-37-13 Star-Trib.     9/10-9/12   2.9  R
                 40-41-8  Univ. of CT    8/7-8/17    3.5  D
                 52-38    Quinnipiac     7/14-7/22   2.8  R+
MS Cochran (R)   *******NO RELIABLE POLLING AVAILABLE*******
MS Wicker (R)    48  43   Research 2000  9/8-9/10    4.0  R
                 45  44   Research 2000  7/21-7/23   4.0  R
                 46  42   Research 2000  5/19-5/21   4.0  R
MT Baucus (D)    *******NO RELIABLE POLLING AVAILABLE*******
NE OPEN (R)      58  31   Research 2000  5/19-5/21   4.0  R+
NH Sununu (R)    44  46   POS (R)        9/2-9/3     4.4  D
                 41  52   ARG (R)        8/18-8/20   4.0  D+
                 42  46   UNH            7/11-7/20   4.5  D
NJ Lautenb. (D)  39  48   Quinnipiac     9/10-9/14   2.8  D+
                 41  49   Research 2000  9/9-9/11    4.0  D
                 40  51   Marist         9/5-9/8     4.0  D+
                 35  46   Fairlgh Dcknsn 9/4-9/7     3.4  D+
NM OPEN (R)      *******NO RELIABLE POLLING AVAILABLE*******
NC Dole (R)      48  42   Research 2000  9/8-9/10    4.0  R
                 48  46   GrnHrtYng (D)  9/5-9/7     4.0  R
                 45  50   Dem. Corps (D) 8/20-8/26   3.4  D
                 44  41   TelOpinion (R) 8/14-8/17   4.0  R
OK Inhofe (R)    50  41   Benenson (D)   8/12-8/14   4.0  R+
                 52  30   Tulsa World    7/19-7/23   3.6  R+
                 53  31   Research 2000  6/9-6/11    4.0  R+
OR Smith (R)     41  43   Benenson (D)   9/7-9/9     3.7  D
                 38  34   POS (R)        5/27-5/29   5.7  R
                 45  42   Feldman (D)    5/12-16     3.0  R
RI Reed (D)      *******NO RELIABLE POLLING AVAILABLE*******
SC Graham (R)    *******NO RELIABLE POLLING AVAILABLE*******
SD Johnson (D)   34  61   GrnbrgQnln (D) 8/12-14     4.0  D+
TN Alexander (R) 60  30   Ayres/McH. (R) 8/10-8/12   4.4  R+
TX Cornyn (R)    44  31   Univ. of TX    7/18-7/30   3.8  R+
                 49  33   Baselice (R)   5/20-5/25   3.0  R+
                 48  44   Research 2000  5/5-5/7     4.0  R
VA OPEN (D)      *******NO RELIABLE POLLING AVAILABLE*******
WV Rockefel. (D) *******NO RELIABLE POLLING AVAILABLE*******
WY Enzi (R)      *******NO RELIABLE POLLING AVAILABLE*******
WY Barrasso (R)  *******NO RELIABLE POLLING AVAILABLE*******

^ = Also includes ex-MN Sen. Dean Barkley (IP)