From The Hotline for Monday, Sept. 8, 2008

GENERAL ELECTION

Changing To "Change"

Monday, Sept. 8, 2008


"Fresh off back-to-back" convos, John McCain and Barack Obama on 9/5 "took off ... on a 60-day dash" to the WH "in a political landscape reshaped by the candidacy" of Sarah Palin and GOP efforts "to seize the mantle of change."

In Cedarsburg, WI, McCain: "Change is coming, change is coming, and with her there we will restore our strength and the prosperity of this great nation." Palin "was greeted like an international celebrity as rock music blared and the crowd chanted: 'Sarah! Sarah! Sarah!'"

"For 19 months, Obama has built his campaign around a mantra of change, with his slogan, 'Change We Can Believe In,' emblazoned on the side of his plane and on posters at his rallies. He had the message largely to himself throughout the primary race. But now he suddenly faces competition for it from McCain, who, along with his advisers, concluded before the conventions ended that the theme of 'experience' he had been running on was not working."

"The first day of campaigning after" the convos "suggested the contours of the two months ahead:" the Obama camp "will use the deteriorating economy to try to link" McCain to Pres. Bush's economic policies, and Palin "will be deployed to rally" the GOP base "as the main weapon against Obama."

In Sterling Heights, MI, Palin: "In politics there are some candidates who use change to promote their careers. And then there are some candidates like John McCain who use their careers to promote change."

Obama advisers "scoffed at the pageantry and McCain's embrace of the 'change' theme." Obama chief strategist David Axelrod: "Simply saying the word does not make you the agent of change" (Bumiller/Zeleny, New York Times, 9/8).

In Colorado Springs, CO on 9/6, McCain: "Let me offer a little advance warning to the old big-spending, do-nothing, me-first, country-second Washington crowd. Change is coming! Change is coming!" (Shear/Slevin, Washington Post, 9/7).

Obama on 9/6 "ridiculed" McCain's "renewed emphasis on his reputation as a government reformer, mocking" McCain "in unusually sharp language." Obama: "This is coming from the party that's been in charge for eight years. They've been running the show ... I guess maybe what they're saying is, 'Watch out, George Bush. Except for economic policies, and tax policies, and energy policies, and healthcare policies, and education policies, and Karl Rove-style politics, except for all that, we're really going to bring change to Washington. We're going to shake things up.'"

More: "Suddenly he's the change agent. He says, 'I'm going to tell those lobbyists that their days of running Washington are over.' Who's he going to tell? Is he going to tell his campaign chairman, who's one of the biggest corporate lobbyists in Washington? Is he going to tell his campaign manager, who was one of the biggest corporate lobbyists in Washington? ... Who? Who is it that he's going to tell that change is coming? I mean come on. They must think you're stupid."

Obama "also criticized Palin, who has touted her opposition to federal earmarks even though she lobbied for millions of dollars of earmarks when she was mayor of a small town and," as gov., she requested $197.8M in earmarks this year. Obama: "When you've been taking all these earmarks when it's convenient, and then suddenly, you're the champion anti-earmark person, that's not change" (Levey/Reston, Los Angeles Times, 9/7).

"Yet for all his effort, McCain will not easily escape being tied to Bush, particularly with his Senate record of voting to support Bush's policies."

Obama spokesperson Robert Gibbs: "They have a hard time making the argument for change. ... We learned in the primaries, if you're the experience candidate in a change election, you bet on the wrong horse."

"There's no doubt that, as the candidate from the out party, Obama offers more changes in policy. And as an African American and the vanguard of a new generation, he looks like change. But he still has to convince Americans that he offers the changes they want -- and that he can implement them" (Thomma, McClatchy, 9/7).

Washington Post's Broder writes, "There is reason to think that Obama and McCain would actually fulfill the voters' hopes for a chief executive who would be a catalyst for change. Obama, who is 47, is culturally the first post-boomer politician to come this close to the presidency. The baby boomers -- Clinton, Bush, Gore, Gingrich and the rest -- have been cursed by their heritage. ... Obama is too young to have experienced those fights, so his mind is open to ideas and information from a far greater variety of sources."

"McCain, who is 72, is almost but not quite a throwback to the 'greatest generation,' the one that survived the Depression, won World War II and built the international architecture of the postwar world. With the McCain family military tradition and the high patriotism forged by his own prisoner-of-war experience, McCain -- like the heroes of FDR's and Truman's time -- disdains partisanship and searches for the national interest, wherever he can find it" (9/7).

Womanning The Battle Stations

The Obama camp "intends to focus heavily on the economy, especially in light of the mounting job losses.... It is banking on holding all the states" Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) won in '04 "and picking up the additional electoral votes it needs by flipping some combination" of OH, NV, NM, CO, IN, IA, and VA into the Dem column.

The McCain camp sees evidence that Palin "is energizing conservatives in the battleground" of OH "while improving its chances in PA "and several Western states" that Obama "has been counting on." Strategists say that McCain "can now count on a more motivated social conservative base to help him in areas like southern" OH, where the '04 race was "settled. While fortified turnout from this base is probably not enough to assure victory" for McCain, "it would be very difficult for him to win without it. In that sense, Palin's presence on the ticket ... could be vital."

GOPers "are hoping that positioning McCain as a maverick now, even after he courted the right with his pick of Palin, could help them hold the Bush states and win some like" NH, which Bush lost in '04 but where McCain is "popular."

Also, although McCain is presenting himself apart from his party, he's simultaneously holding the line on conservative policies. CA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R): "Even in the face of job losses and the mortgage crisis, the core Republican message is still appealing: No higher taxes, get government off your back, cut regulations and make us more competitive."

"One indication of the Obama campaign's priorities can be found in a breakdown of how it is distributing large donations to a special fund-raising account it has set up for state parties. The breakdown, provided by an Obama fund-raiser, shows the campaign funneling money to traditional battlegrounds like" FL, OH, and PA, "but also allocating substantial sums to normally solid" GOP states like NC.

"Obama aides, while pulling back commercials" in GA, "are mulling new ads in other states that Bush carried," like AZ and WV, "where the poor economy could help them" (Healy/Cooper, New York Times, 9/7).

"Both candidates have targeted 11 states with advertising this week." They are CO, FL, IA, MO, NC, NH, NM, NV, PA, VA, and WI. McCain and the RNC also are up with an ad in MN. "Obama, however, has expanded the field for now," placing ads in IN, MI, MT, and ND.

"Timing is also crucial. Five battlegrounds" -- NC, PA, VA, MO, and MI -- "begin distributing absentee ballots" between 9/19 and 9/23.

McCain "must ensure a state" like MT, which voted for Bush 59-39% over Kerry in '04, "doesn't flip. But the state has two" Dem senators and a Dem gov. "He must shore up" ND "and hold on to other states Bush won such as" NV and CO, "where there's been a growth in" Dem-leaning Hispanic voters. GOP strategist Scott Reed: "The secret of the next 30 days is to get these traditional Republican states back in our column."

"It won't be easy. Obama has the financial resources to keep those states competitive, forcing McCain to divert money he will desperately need in tossup states."

Palin "will be McCain's ambassador to vulnerable" GOP-leaning states. "She'll cross paths" with Joe Biden "in small cities and rural hamlets" in PA and OH "in competition for working class white men and women. McCain would be free to promote himself as a maverick and independent in states such as" NH "and in the suburbs and ex-urbs where independent and undecided voters might live" (Kuhnhenn, AP, 9/6).

"A final nail has been driven into the coffin of one of the most venerable calculations in American politics by the selection of Biden and Palin as running mates. "The equation in question is that a crucial asset of running mates is that they can carry their home states and thus contribute to assembling the 270 electoral votes needed to claim the presidency. Consider, then," that DE and AK "offer a total of six electoral votes" (Baker, Los Angeles Times, 9/6).

Knowable Unknowables

As Obama and McCain "go barreling neck-and-neck into the homestretch, advisers for both men know one thing for certain: Nothing is."

"More so than any presidential race in recent history, this one may be determined by forces beyond the control of either candidate. How far will housing values fall? How far will oil prices rise? Will violence in Iraq erase the gains of the surge? Will Israel attack Iran? Will one of the Big Three automakers go bankrupt? Which neighbor will Russia attack next? Which bank will fail? Will terrorists strike the United States again?"

"It's impossible to predict much about this race, but here are seven things to watch as the unknowns become knowns:

1. "Will Obama profit from pain?"

"Voters say the economy is their number one concern -- and in nearly every poll" Obama "enjoys a substantial, but not commanding, 10- to 15-point advantage on economic issues. ... But Obama hasn't been able to translate that advantage into big leads over McCain in the states hit hardest by the economic downtown."

"Race and class issues are probably sapping Obama's support. But he's also been hurt by nagging questions about his leadership experience as the GOP tries to shift the election from a referendum" on GOP economic policies "to a test of whether Obama is up to the job of president."

2. "Has Palin Peaked?"

Palin "probably exceeded" McCain's "wildest expectations: McCain has turned an eight-point deficit in the Gallup daily tracking poll into a three-point lead." Palin "appeared before adoring crowds in the lower 48 last week, but she did so with the help of TelePrompters and under the protection of a journalist no-fly zone."

But how will Palin "hold up under a grilling about the future of NATO, the mortgage securitization crisis or Troopergate? ... The potential for embarrassment remains significant despite Palin's poise, sense of humor and innate smarts. Some GOP analysts fret that her popularity has nowhere to go but down, as moderate women become more familiar with her staunch anti-abortion stance."

3. "Can Joe Biden avoid the curse of Rick Lazio?"

Palin's "biggest test" comes on 10/2 in St. Louis, "when she faces" Biden "in what is certain to be the most eagerly anticipated and probably the most-viewed veep debate ever. "Biden hopes to portray" Palin "as a neo-Dan Quayle, an out-of-depth amateur unfit to serve as president. But perils abound for the verbose, occasionally overbearing Biden, who must negotiate a gender minefield Rick Lazio blundered into during his disastrous debate against" Hillary Clinton in '00.

4. "The presidential candidates debate, too."

"Until McCain picked Palin, the trio of presidential debates ... seemed likely to the defining moments in the fall campaign. They still are."

"Neither candidate is exactly a master of the form. McCain does best when he's cracking collegial jokes, but he's prone to missteps and shows unattractive flashes of anger from time to time. Obama is a polished performer but sometimes comes across as condescending or professorial."

5. "Will Hillary really help?"

Obama "needs" Clinton "on the trail -- less to offset Palin than to deliver working-class whites who became her base during the primaries. ... She's amenable -- under two conditions. First, she refuses to be a 'Sarah Palin attack dog,' according to a person close to her. Second, she wants Obama campaign events to coincide with fundraisers to retire her $20 million-plus debt."

6. "Wright back at you."

"It's possible that McCain himself will attack Obama over his longtime relationship with the firebrand former preacher, but it's far more likely that independent groups will run ads and barrage white, working-class voters with Wright-Obama emails during the homestretch. And those same groups won't be shy about dwelling on Obama's more tenuous link to former Weather Underground radical Bill Ayers."

7. "Will Mount McCain erupt?"

When Dem operatives "were gaming out a race against McCain earlier this year, one thing seemed certain to work in their favor: At some point, McCain would blow a gasket and undo months of political anger management." A lot of Dems "still think it will happen" (Thrush, Politico, 9/8).

One of the conundrums of this political year is why, at a moment" when Dems "are clearly preferred over" GOPers, WH'08 "remains so close. But for the past 40 years, close and unpredictable elections have increasingly become the norm."

"The most important reason for our volatile presidential elections is a fundamental change in American politics -- the birth of a post-partisan world. This may sound surprising in an era in which politics are as polarized as at any moment in our recent history -- as illustrated" by Palin's "slashing, sarcastic acceptance speech" at the GOP convo -- "and in which the two major parties in Congress seem to disagree, sometimes violently, on almost everything. But what makes our politics so different from early periods in our history, and so volatile and unpredictable, is the absence of strong political parties as moderators of public life, and their replacement with sharp ideological differences" (Brinkley, Wall Street Journal, 9/6).

Not The Only Ones Trying To Get A Job

Obama and McCain "seized on" the latest jobs report published on 9/5 "to promote their own economic agendas and score some points against each other."

"The report that the U.S. jobless rate jumped unexpectedly" in Aug. to 6.1% of the work force, "a five-year high and the eighth-consecutive month of declining nonfarm payrolls, comes as" Obama "has sought to portray" McCain "as out-of-touch and out of ideas on the economy." Obama "immediately put the gloomy jobs statistic to work" against McCain.

For his part, McCain "acknowledged the jobs report head-on" 9/5. McCain: "My friends, a little straight talk. A little straight talk. These are tough times. Today, the jobs report is another reminder. All you ever asked of government is to stand on your side, not in your way, and that's what I intend to do: stand on your side and fight for your futures."

McCain in a statement "jabbed at his rival for proposing to repeal the Bush tax cuts for top income earners and to raise the capital gains tax." McCain: "When our economy is hurting, the last thing we should do is raise taxes as Barack Obama plans to do and has done" (Timiraos, Wall Street Journal, 9/6).

Obama and McCain said on 9/7 "they see the federal takeover of mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as necessary." McCain supports takeover "but wants eventual privatization, his advisors said." Obama "said that the step was necessary to prevent a deeper economic crisis and he would be reviewing the Treasury plan" (Reuters, 9/8).

Full Of Busters?

"A suddenly unsettled presidential race will have a new variable added to the mix this week: Congress."

"Lawmakers return to the Capitol" 9/8 "for a quick session loaded with political traps and minefields, for each other and for" the pres. nominees. These include offshore oil drilling and economic stimulus, with a possible health-care surprise" (Weisman/Kane, Washington Post, 9/7).

Representation Without Taxation

"Declaring that clergy have a constitutional right to endorse political candidates from their pulpits, the socially conservative Alliance Defense Fund is recruiting several dozen pastors to do just that" on 9/28, "in defiance of Internal Revenue Service rules."

The effort by the AZ-based legal consortium "is designed to trigger an IRS investigation that ADF lawyers would then challenge in federal court. The ultimate goal is to persuade" SCOTUS "to throw out a 54-year-old ban on political endorsements by tax-exempt houses of worship" (Slevin, Washington Post, 9/8).

Country First

McCain and Obama said 9/6 "they will put aside partisan politics for a joint appearance at Ground Zero to mark the seventh anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks. ... [T]hey will appear together" at the World Trade Center site on 9/11 "'to honor the memory of each and every American who died' in the 2001 attacks."

Statement: "All of us came together on 9/11 -- not as Democrats or Republicans -- but as Americans. We were united as one American family. On Thursday, we will put aside politics and come together to renew that unity."

The camps "already had agreed to suspend television advertising critical of each other" on 9/11. The McCain camp "has said it will air no ads that day" (AP, 9/6).

Swinging My Head Against The Wall

Rocky Mountain News's Ryckman writes, "So long, soccer moms. Welcome, Wal-Mart women -- this year's quintessential swing voters."

"These women and millions of others like them are the voters" McCain and Obama "have to court:" the 17% of the electorate "who regularly shop at the world's largest retailer, a large enough bloc to influence who ends up" in the WH.

"So just who is the Wal-Mart woman?" GOP pollster Lori Weigel: "The Reagan Democrat. We're just calling them something cute and different today" (9/6).

  •  
  •