From The Hotline for Monday, August 11, 2008

OBAMA

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Mon. Aug 11, 2008


In response to John McCain's "celebrity" attacks, Barack Obama's camp will launch a new TV ad, "Embrace," on nat'l cable 8/12, highlighting McCain's record as "the biggest celebrity in Washington." The 30-second spot features footage of McCain on the late-night comedy talk show circuit and "Saturday Night Live" (release, 8/11).

The Obama camp is also up with a new TV ad, "Backyard," in Las Vegas and Reno, NV, highlighting McCain's "continued support for storing nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain" (release).

On 8/8, the Obama camp unveiled a new radio ad in OH "discussing McCain's extraordinary intervention on behalf of a foreign shipping company == DHL and Deutsche Post -- that is now putting" 8.2K OH jobs at risk (release, 8/8).

As part of its $5M NBC Olympics ad buy, the Obama camp unveiled a new ad, "Hands," which started running in all 50 states on 8/9. The ad discusses Obama's "plan to invest in a green-energy economy focused on harvesting wind and solar power and building the next generation of fuel efficient cars" (release, 8/8). The ad, which makes no mention of McCain, "is the first wholly positive one we've seen" (CBSNews.com, 8/9), and comes across as a "refreshingly positive spot amid the negative messages of the past two weeks" (O'Keefe, Washingtonpost.com, 8/10).

Fireside Chats And Threats

Obama used the nat'l Dem radio address 8/9 to accuse McCain "of embracing Bush administration policies that he said shortchange Americans by favoring an extended war in Iraq at the expense of fixing the nation's underfunded schools and crumbling roads and bridges." Obama "said a projected federal budget shortfall" of almost $500B while Iraq has a surplus are "stark examples of exactly what's wrong with Washington, and what's at stake in this election" (Shields, Bloomberg, 8/9).

Obama: "The American people are worse off than they were eight years ago. Sen. McCain talks about putting our country first, but he is running for a third term of the very same policies that have set our country back. We can't afford to take that chance. We can't afford to keep running up record deficits while we favor the few over the many. We can't prioritize a misguided war in Iraq over the urgent needs of the American people" (AP, 8/9).

Dreams from My Father: What Made Him Fall Asleep

Obama's camp plans to release a new policy book on 9/9 -- "Change We Can Believe In: Barack Obama's Plan to Renew America's Promise." As a paperback, the book has an "announced first printing" of 300K copies and a list price of $13.95. Looking ahead "to the digital market, the e-book, also $13.95, will go on sale the day before." The book will include a foreword by Obama "and feature sections -- written by" his camp staff-- on issues like "health care, energy and national security." The book "also compiles some of his better known speeches, including his celebrated talk on race and his recent address in Berlin."

"Change We Can Believe In" will test Obama's "appeal. Policy books are rarely hits with the public, although they can be quite useful for candidates, such as Obama, who have been criticized for lacking substance." And Obama's book will have strong competition at stores." It comes out at the same time as Bob Woodward's fourth volume on the Bush admin, "one of the fall's most anticipated releases" (Italie, AP, 8/11).

The Power Has Been Planted

The pro-Obama PowerPAC.org is planning to spend $10M on a voter registration drive "in the African-American south and a media campaign targeting Hispanic voters in four Western states."

In "the black south," PowerPAC is "going to finance existing African-American groups, like local NAACP chapters, to register and mobilize voters. According to PowerPAC pres. Steve Phillips, the group will do voter registration work in VA, NC, MI, and GA. Philips, "who came of political age on Jesse Jackson's campaign for president, said he thought the increases in minority voting this year could transform local political landscapes as Jackson did." Phillips: "It could work the same way, if not even bigger than the Jackson campaign."

Philips said his group would spend about $7M dollars in the South, leaving about $3M for advertising targeting Hispanic voters in CO, NM, NV, and TX. For their part, "Obama aides declined to comment on the group's efforts, and also played down the impact of outside groups. Phillips, though, said he hoped he was building the beginnings of a progressive infrastructure that could stand outside, and to the left of, an Obama presidency" (Smith, Politico, 8/11).

The VP Pick, Now With Shocking Emoticon Faces

In a new fundraising email, Obama's camp is offering supporters the chance to "receive an email" or text message at "the moment" he makes his VP decision. In an email sent 8/10 to supporters, Obama camp manager David Plouffe writes: "You will receive an email the moment Barack makes his decision, or you can text VP to 62262 to receive a text message on your mobile phone. Once you've signed up, please forward this email to your friends, family, and coworkers to let them know about this special opportunity. No other campaign has done this before. You can be part of this important moment" (release, 8/10).

Painting The Barns Blue

Rural OH voters and Obama supporters today "announced a new barn painting campaign called Barns for Obama," part of OH for Change's "ongoing effort to reach out to rural voters." The camp "released a web video to kick off the effort, with time-lapse photography showing the painting of a barn in northern Trumbull County." The video features Sen. Obama discussing the importance of rural values and the need to support family famers. Over the coming weeks, "Barns for Obama" will be "reaching out to other farmers interested in painting their barns" (release, 8/11).

Midnight Train, Or Whatever One Comes After That

Obama's camp "issued multiple statements over the weekend reacting to the crisis" in Georgia.

On 8/8, Obama's camp released an "initial one-paragraph statement," which contained no criticism of Russia and put the onus on both nations "to show restraint and to avoid an escalation to full-scale war." A day later, "Obama issued a much lengthier statement that significantly ramped up the rhetoric toward Russia. After "disclosing that he had spoken directly" with Sec/State Condoleezza Rice, and with Georgian Pres. Saakashvili, Obama said: "I condemn Russia's aggressive actions and reiterate my call for an immediate ceasefire. Russia must stop its bombing campaign, cease flights of Russian aircraft in Georgian airspace, and withdraw its ground forces from Georgia" (Berman, New York Sun, 8/11).

CBS' Schieffer: "When we see what's happening today, won't that bolster John McCain's argument that the presidency needs someone with experience dealing with issues like these?"

VA Gov. Tim Kaine (D): "I think the two concerns that Americans have are the state of our economy and our security at home and abroad. And this issue in Georgia, obviously, raises great questions. But I think, as we look at security, what Americans most want is judgment. Experience is only positive insofar as it creates good judgment. And I think Senator Obama's strong case to the American people is that he will have the right judgment about how to balance America's military force with strong diplomacy to protect our interests abroad. He has spoken very strongly about the need to protect Georgia's integrity and sovereignty, has called on Russia to cease-fire in the region, and called on the international community to begin talks to protect Georgian sovereignty. But I think Americans really -- and I know Virginians better than those in other states -- what we want is judgment" ("Face the Nation," CBS, 8/10).

NM Gov. Bill Richardson (D): "My view is that the United States -- if we had a stronger relationship with Russia, we could exercise strong diplomacy to stop this effort against Georgia. We should immediately go to the United Nations Security Council, condemn Russia's action, and then get the Security Council to pass a strong resolution getting the Russians to show some restraint, and possibly at the same time generate some U.N. peacekeeping troops. The problem, though, is that we don't have the kind of influence and strength in our relationship with Russia to persuade them. This has been one of the failures of the Bush administration, failing to build a strong relationship, a mutually beneficial relationship with Russia, so we'd have the kind of influence to persuade them to stop some of these very, very dangerous efforts within their territory" ("This Week," ABC, 8/10).

Reckless Abandon

According to a recent analysis by "the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center," Obama's tax plan would add $3.4T to the national debt, including interest, by '18. Obama "bashes" Pres. Bush "for 'reckless' economic policies that are 'mortgaging our children's future on a mountain of debt,'" but he "has adopted a key component of Bush's fiscal policy: A novel bookkeeping method that guarantees that" the $9.5T national debt will get much bigger.

When Obama "promises to cut taxes for the middle class without increasing the deficit, he is measuring his proposals against the large deficits that would result from Bush's plan to extend his signature tax cuts" beyond their '10 expiration date. But "under current law, all the tax cuts expire and the deficit disappears completely." By adopting Bush's "bookkeeping system, Obama has frustrated deficit hawks who say government should live within its means" (Montgomery, Washington Post, 8/10).

Everything But The Beach Towel

• Obama's campaign plane arrived in Honolulu 8/8, "with 17 of his friends and family members filling the seats normally occupied by his traveling advisers. The band included his wife, Michelle, 10-year-old daughter Malia and 7-year-old daughter Sasha" (AP, 8/10).

• In his only scheduled public appearance on 8/8 at Keehi Lagoon Park, about 4K "sweaty but happy supporters made their way through a throng of traffic, endured security sweeps and sat in the sun for hours" to listen to Obama speak for 16 minutes (Nakaso, Honolulu Advertiser, 8/9).

• Obama "alluded to his vacation itinerary by highlighting some local favorites: "I'm going to get a plate lunch. I might go to Zippy's. I might go to Rainbow Drive-In....I'm going to go body surfing at an undisclosed location" (Falcone, "The Caucus," 8/9).

• During Obama's "remarks, people hooted and roared with applause, a few even jumped up and down with excitement." Univ of HI prof Daphne Desser was even "brought to tears" (Honolulu Advertiser, 8/9).

• Obama told reporters he'll be working on his convention speech while he's Hawaii, but "would not be making any announcements" about his VP pick (DePledge, Honolulu Advertiser, 8/9).

• During a morning jog 8/9, Obama "came close to another People magazine moment when a photographer snapped a photo of him running along the beach barefoot, clad in black shorts and a T-shirt" ("The Caucus," 8/9).

• Obama spent his "first full day" of vacation playing golf on 8/9. He "climbed aboard a golf cart and began: a round of 18 holes "just before 12:30" and left the course around 5:30 pm (Reyes, Honolulu Star-Bulletin , 8/10).

• On "the third day of what Obama hoped to be a low-key vacation," Obama started an day early 8/10 at the "gym before driving up to the North Shore for a barbecue at a friend's house" (Au, Honolulu Star-Bulletin, 8/11).

• Obama "surprised a number of people at the 24-Hour Fitness" in Kaneohe, HI, "where he arrived at about 8:30 a.m. and spent an hour doing cardio on a treadmill and worked his chest and calves" (KITV.com, 8/11).

• At 24-Hour Fitness, personal trainer Abby Santos offered Obama "a bottle of Dasani water" which he "declined, preferring to drink out of the water fountain" (Honolulu Star-Bulletin, 8/11).

• Obama also visited Aloha Tropical Farms, a macadamia nut farm 8/10.

• Obama planned to stay on Oahu until 8/15, "and he promised the slimmed-down press corps that accompanied him on the flight over that he would introduce them to the island favorite treat of shave ice at some point during the stay" (AP, 8/10).

Thanks, RNC

The RNC is "attempting to paint" Obama "as an out-of-touch elitist" in a mock "Barack Obama's Hawaii Travel Guide" e-mailed to reporters 8/8. The guide lists four "destinations," among them the "beach locals claim is the one where Obama was photographed in his swim trunks in a shot that ran in People magazine early last year, and 'Punahou School, a coeducational college preparatory day school' that Obama attended 'from 1971 to 1979. The school campus covers 76 acres at the edge of the Manoa Valley'" (Grim, Politico, 8/9).

Buck Up!

New York Times' Parker writes, two months after Hillary Clinton "suspended her campaign, a small group of staff members have moved over" to Obama's camp. "In making the move, many have had to place both their physical (Hillary buttons) and emotional (more complicated) keepsakes in storage to pursue a larger goal of electing" a Dem. So far, "about 20 people have made the transition," the best known of whom whom is ex-HRC manager Patti Solis Doyle, "who has been given the task of leading and organizing the staff" for the VP nominee, whoever that might be (8/10).

Newsweek's Fineman writes, "Soon after he wrapped" up the Dem primary, Obama invited some of HRC's "key financial supporters -- 'bundlers' in the trade -- to a private cocktail party and dinner" in DC. These :were the more practical types, many of them women, who loved Hillary but the" Dem Party even more. They "felt the need to give face-to-face advice to their new champion. One of them, speaking to me on condition of anonymity, said she pleaded with" Obama "to spend quality time with a wounded and therefore potentially disruptive Bill Clinton." Donor: "I told Barack, 'Have dinner. Clear the air. Win him over.'" Obama "didn't seem eager."

"Everyone knows there is bad blood between the Obamas and the Clintons. But politics is the art of turning the sanguinary into the sanguine. Obama could use the Clintons' help, even if he is reluctant to admit it.... there is no doubt that a fired-up and ready-to-go Bubba would be a formidable salesman for Obama's cause" (8/18 issue).

Worried? EJ?

Washington Post's Dionne writes the "core strategy of John McCain's camp is to turn Obama "into the incumbent, the man who is too familiar yet still mysterious." The effort "reflects one of the most remarkable aspects" of the '08 campaign: Obama 'has turned himself into the central figure in American politics. That is an extraordinary achievement, but it comes at a price."

Yet Obamahas "absorbed the assaults and headed to his holiday in Hawaii holding an advantage of four to six percentage points -- roughly the same margin he has enjoyed all summer. This led political strategists in both parties with whom I spoke in recent days to challenge the conventional wisdom" of an Obama camp that is "underperforming" (8/11).

Seventh Realm

Politico's Thrush outlines 7 "worrisome signs for" the Obama camp:

• 1. Race. "Among whites, he does well with women, the affluent and college grads but fares poorly among low-income earners and Catholics - key swing groups that handed" HRC "stunning blowouts in WV and KY.

• How much does his race factor into tightening contests in MO, WI, FL, MN, and OH? "Nobody knows - and that's the problem. ... A huge challenge for Obama, insiders say, is simply determining how much skin color will matter in Nov. Adding to the jitters: GOP surrogates Rep. Pete King (R-NY) "have vowed to make Obama's relationship with Rev. Jeremiah Wright a centerpiece during the homestretch."

• 2. Obama's strength in VA "may be overhyped." Obama's "aides privately concede his odds" in VA "are probably no better than 50-50 and that the state is far from a lock-solid hedge if he loses" OH and FL/

• 3. MI's in play for McCain. While Obama is ahead in polls, McCain "has quietly crept up over the past month and could vault ahead if he anoints ex-Gov. Mitt Romney. Simmering tensions between predominantly-black Detroit and its white suburbs could hurt Obama. And McCain's surrogates were handed a gift in the jailing" of Obama supporter/Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick.

• 4. "Bad times could be good for McCain. If anger" helps Dems, "fear advantages" GOPers. A growing number of Dem strategists "worry that some swing state voters may opt for McCain if the economy veers from merely awful to downright terrifying."

• 5. Where have you gone, Ross Perot? Bob Barr's indie bid won't help Obama, like Perot's helped Clinton in '92.

• 6. The Legacy of LBJ, Jimmy and Bubba. Obama would have been a trailblazer no matter what - but the Dems' trail to the WH has been remarkably narrow since '60, "accommodating only southern whites with border-state strength: Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton"

• 7. Americans may want divided government. Some Dem "operatives think a possible landslide for their party in congressional races could backfire on Obama" (8/11).

Flip To The Index

Washington Post editorializes, the "last item on the last page" of Obama's 'New Energy for America' plan -- build more livable and sustainable communities -- "sounds like the standard feel-good political boilerplate that generally shows up in the back of policy papers. But it shouldn't be dismissed." Obama's proposal "is part of a larger policy push to foster smart growth. The effort puts a premium on residential and commercial development that minimizes fuel use and cuts greenhouse gas emissions by maximizing density and transportation alternatives that get people out of their cars" (8/11).

Creepiest Endorsement Ever

Ex-supermodel/fat-suit maven Tyra Banks "portrays Michelle Obama" in a photo spread set to publish in the September issue of Harper's Bazaar. The shoot "captures Banks beside a Barack Obama look-alike model in an Oval Office scene." In another photo with the Barack stand-in, Banks "gives him a fist bump while confetti flies" (Fretland, "The Swamp," Chicago Tribune, 8/11).

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