From The Hotline for Thursday, July 31, 2008

GENERAL ELECTION

Spice Things Up With Role-Playing

Thu. Jul 31, 2008


Barack Obama and John McCain "appear to be seizing the roles in which they have been cast," Obama "as front-runner" and McCain "as underdog." By doing so, Obama "risks coming off as arrogant and presumptuous," while McCain "risks coming off as negative and whiny."

McCain's camp is also "pushing the perception of an arrogant Obama" with its latest TV ads, but it "remains unclear" whether that "will stoke voter concerns" about Obama "or reinforce his front-runner status." Obama's upcoming "weeklong vacation to visit his grandmother" in HI could also "add to the perception that he is overconfident" (Meckler/Chozick, Wall Street Journal, 7/31).

Meanwhile, Boston Globe's Payne writes, "McCain tries to portray Obama, a first-term senator, as naive on foreign policy and not experienced enough to lead the military," despite a lengthly list of McCain's own gaffes. And "the chief complaint McCain and GOP allies could muster against Obama's triumphal world tour is that he looked too good, too confident, too presidential" (7/31).

For more, see today's candidate stories.

The Media Always Liked You Best

New York Times' Seelye writes, McCain "himself has enjoyed one of the coziest relationships with the media for years," so "we seem to have a new phenomenon" at work -- "the specter of dueling media darlings" (7/30).

But Chicago Tribune's Zorn writes, "McCain has cruised mostly under the media radar as he's gone from gaffe to gaffe -- blithely altering some of his 'maverick' views to appease wary conservatives, and slinging harsh invective at his opponent. Yet he's complaining about the lack of attention. Call it the audacity of obscurity. And remind him of the cliche about being careful what you wish for" (7/31).

Who Gets The Toy Surprise?

Politico's Glass writes, "While the historical record reflects pretty good odds that at least one October surprise will occur, the past cannot tell us what impact, if any, it would have on the November results." But "this year's top entry in the surprise sweepstakes is the prospect of Israel attacking Iran on its own -- without seeking Bush's permission."

Meanwhile, "who are the nasty guys rooting for?" McCain "implies that they want Obama to win" because he's "signaled his willingness to meet, without preconditions, with the leaders of rogue states. ... But you could argue" enemies don't want a POTUS "who no longer casts America in the role of the Great Satan. So it could come as no surprise if Obama, unlike Kerry, makes that point in October" (7/30).

Closer To Home

Philadelphia Inquirer's Eichel writes, the "energy crisis has become the top domestic issue" in the WH race. Obama "sees the topic as a way to tie" McCain to oil companies, while McCain "is using it to make the argument that Obama is arrogant and out of touch" by opposing offshore drilling (7/31).

City Barack Doesn't Need Country Barack

Politico's Kotkin/Schill write, Obama "can comfortably expect to triumph in virtually every major urban county, often by ratios of 2-to-1 or more." Some cities are dominated by "an increasingly impoverished, highly minority population with very little proclivity to support conservative or even moderate" GOPers, "and is likely to vote in huge numbers for Obama." Other cities, meanwhile, have attracted "a population of well-educated, white professionals" who are also likely to vote Obama. "With a strong showing in the other geographies as well as his inevitable landslide in cities," Obama "could realize a historic triumph closer to Rooseveltian proportions" (7/30).

Call It Multi-tasking

"One of the biggest likely beneficiaries" of the new housing bill is Acorn, "a housing advocacy group that also helps lead ambitious voter-registration efforts benefiting" Dems. It's "voter mobilization arm is co-mangaging" a $15.9M, "technically nonpartisan" campaign with Project Vote to register 1.2M low-income Hispanics and African-Americans, who are "among those most likely" to vote Dem. Acorn's "multiple roles show how two fronts of activism -- housing for the poor and voter registration -- have converged closely" in this election year (Williamson/Mullins, Wall Street Journal, 7/31).

Maybe Little Girls Don't Want To Be Bundlers When They Grow Up

A USA Today anlysis shows "a gender gap among the upper echelons" of fundraising bundlers for both candidates. Women "account for 59 out of more than 500 top fundraisers" for McCain, while Obama "has 148 female fundraisers out of more than 500." Men "also account for a greater share of contributions" to both candidates -- nearly 60% of donations larger than $200 to Obama and nearly 72% of donations larger than $200 to McCain (Schouten, USA Today, 7/31).

Meanwhile, a Center for Responsive Politics analysis shows McCain "is more open" with info about his bundlers than Obama, providing their employer and occupation, "but neither" candidate "will say precisely how much money each of those supporters rake in" (McElhatton, Washington Times, 7/31).

Attack Ads = Not Cool

Houston Chronicle's Garofoli notes a nat'l group, MoveOn.org, is only now airing an ad on Comedy Central because before now, "nobody thought voters were watching." But ad markets expand, "youth experts" warn that attack ads "turn off younger voters" (7/31).

They're Only Senators, After All

Washington Times' Gallington writes, with both candidates "out to show that they are foreign policy and national security experts, it's a good time to inject some political reality into the debate." Both are senators, "and -- while perhaps counterintuitive -- know surprisingly little of what actually goes on at senior levels" on such matters in the exec. branch. "In short, the candidates are legislators," and "they have never been and will never be such experts" thanks to "the eternal struggle for power between the president and the Congress" (7/31).

The Opposite Of Job Security

Bloomberg's Chen writes, "Already, campaigns have discarded more prominent political supporters than during any election in memory. Real or perceived sins are being amplified," and campaigns now have "hair triggers" when supporters "draw potentially damaging attention. Ex-Al Gore comm. dir. Chris Lehane: "The bar for a surrogate screwing up has gotten very low" (7/31).

I'm Barack Obama And I Approve Of These Experts

McClatchy's Lightman writes, "experts agreed" that experience has not been an "accurate predictor" of WH performance -- given that "the presidency has too many moving pieces," "sound judgment" may be more important (7/30).

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