From The Hotline for Monday, July 28, 2008

GENERAL ELECTION

You Get What You Pay For

Mon. Jul 28, 2008


"After a week of trading charges on Iraq and foreign policy," John McCain and Barack Obama "are turning their attention to the U.S. economy." Obama meets in DC today with "the likes of" Robert Rubin, Paul Volcker and Warren Buffett, and will campaign this week in MO, IA and FL. McCain "will emphasize the economy and the need for independence from foreign oil" as he campaigns in NV and WI (Goldman/Benjamin, Bloomberg, 7/28).

US News & World Report's Pethokoukis writes, "right now, both campaigns are adhering tightly to a 'We feel your pain' script" when it comes to the economy. But "voters should focus on whether what McCain and Obama are proposing would help create jobs and raise the U.S. standard of living beyond 2009," when they might actually have an effect (7/25).

Time's Scherer writes, while their tax plans "differ strikingly," neither candidate "has laid out an actual plan, with specific numbers, to bring America's fiscal house into order," instead engaging in "a war of words with few numbers to back them up." The "only way to find out" what would happen if they were elected "may be to put them in office" (7/24).

And Chicago Tribune's Leckey writes, "no matter who wins," Wall Street will likely experience a "post-election 'relief' rally," because they'll finally "know what they face" (7/27).

It's Not Over 'Til It's Over

Among those weighing in on the past week in campaigning:

• New York Times' Leibovich writes, From their tips abroad to Obama's "faux presidential seal" and McCain's weekly radio address, both candidates "have been assuming the trappings and behaviors of already-elected presidents," so much so that they "seem to be falling all over themselves to playact." At times on his trip last week, Obama and his camp "teetered on the presidential-presumptuous line," and "McCain's surrogates hit the overconfidence note repeatedly" (7/28).

• McClatchy's Thomma writes, "If conventional wisdom ruled," Obama "would be on his way to the White House after last week." But "at home," McCain "managed to stay in the game," talking gas prices in battleground states, scoring points "under the national radar" (7/27).

• Chicago Tribune's Tackett writes, "No matter how good things might look, it is July," not Nov. "Memo to the Obama campaign: It's too early to start measuring the drapes." So far, "it is quite the pretty picture" Obama is showing voters, "but it is also important to remember that is about all it is." Still, "Memo to the McCain campaign: When you see a photo of Obama riding with Petraeus, counter it with something other than" McCain "riding in a golf cart" with ex-Pres. Bush, "looking spiffy but oh-so-comfortable in retirement" ("The Swamp," 7/26).

• Arkansas News Bureau's Brummett writes, Obama "needs to convince" voters that "he is ready in terms of gravitas and energy for the challenges of the world. He appeared so last week. McCain needs to convince the electorate he isn't too old and tired for the job. He did not succeed in that objective in recent days" (7/28).

• New York Post's Chavez writes, "Why hasn't Obama closed the deal?" Average Americans "still aren't sure they know or fully trust him." When it "comes to their assessment of his knowledge and experience or his ability to be commander in chief, Obama's deficits in voters' minds are so great it's hard to imagine he can ever reassure them" (7/26).

Very (Or Potentially) Important Dates

USA Today's Page notes there are "100 days to go" in the WH race. Coming up, the Olympics, starting 8/8, may "suck all the air out" of the campaign. "By week's end, the last of the additional U.S. combat forces deployed to Iraq last year are scheduled to have been withdrawn." Gen. Petraeus plans to "pause," and he "could well recommend more troops be pulled out" in mid-Sept. And "on the Thursday before the election," the Commerce Dept. will issue its advance estimate of the 3rdQ GDP, "a broad measure of the economy's health" (7/28).

Come Together, Right Now, Over Iraq

Chicago Tribune's Silva writes, "It seems" that Obama and McCain "have now met in the middle" on Iraq -- "the terms of the debate are starting to align," with McCain "warming to 16 months" for withdrawing US troops, and Obama "talking about 'conditions'" on the ground determining what residual forces remain ("The Swamp," 7/26).

More Like An Enthusiasm Chasm?

"All signs point to" a "warm" reception for Obama this week as he meets with the House Dem Caucus -- and Dems "have grown so buoyant -- or overconfident" -- that part of Obama's message "will concern governance in 2009." GOP lawmakers, meanwhile, "remain more focused on short-term survival." In "one of the notable turnabouts" of this campaign, Dem pols and voters "alike seem to display more fervor" for Obama than GOPers do for McCain. Within GOP "cloakrooms on Capitol Hill, the coolness toward" McCain "is mutual," while Dems "express remarkably few reservations" about Obama, "despite his tough nomination fight" with Hillary Clinton "and the risks associated" with his candidacy (Harwood, New York Times, 7/28).

We've Struck Hope!

Washington Post's Shear/Kane write, GOPers "think they have found their best" issue in their "renewed push for offshore oil drilling." The issue lets GOPers "demonstrate their plans to address the anger over high gas prices as well as the broader economic distress that many voters feel." If "nothing else, the cause for domestic drilling has provided a significant amount of unity among" cong. GOPers "who had spent most of this year fractured and receiving advice from leaders to look out for themselves politically" (7/27).

Straying From The Flock?

Obama "is courting" evangelical voters, "and there are indications he's getting through to some" who are "increasingly concerned about such issues as the economy, global warming and the Iraq War." While Obama "has little chance of carrying this group," McCain "hasn't stirred enthusiasm among the faithful," and if Obama "persuades 10 percent of those who typically vote Republican that he reflects their views better than McCain, that may make a difference in some battleground states." Obama's "American Values" campaign to highlight health care and helping the poor, and portray Obama as a "family man," seems to be "resonating with churchgoers" (Lakshmanan, Bloomberg, 7/28).

Joint Pains

Politico's Vogel notes both candidates "are also using -- or gearing up to use -- joint fundraising committees that undermine their claims about the noble sources of their campaign funds." McCain "has brought in a heap of huge checks through a network of hybrid fundraising groups" in the last two months, which "highlights his reliance" on the RNC and its state affiliates. McCain "has six" joint fundraising cmtes, while Obama has two," with another being set up (7/26).

You've Been Warned

New York Times' Blow writes, "in these relative calm days of summer," let's "pause and recognize that Americans overwhelmingly agree on many of the big issues and are changing their minds on others." It's just that those shifting views, when taken as a whole, don't neatly line up with either party's platform." Still, "the wizards behind the curtains specialize in amplifying the differences that stoke our fears. Remember, and resist" (7/26).

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