From The Hotline for Friday, July 18, 2008

OBAMA

The E Street Band Of Foreign Policy Advisers

Fri. Jul 18, 2008


Barack Obama's camp has "a huge 300-person foreign policy campaign bureaucracy, organized like a mini State Department, to assist" him -- as his "limited" nat'l security experience "remains a concern to many voters." His foreign policy "infrastructure" has been "divided into 20 teams based on regions and issues," and "recently absorbed, with some tensions, the top foreign policy advisers from Hillary Clinton's campaign.

Most of the core members of his team served in government during Pres. Clinton's admin "and by and large were junior to the advisers who worked on" HRC's WH campaign. "But they remain in charge within the campaign even as it takes on more senior figures from the Clinton era," like ex-Sec/States Madeleine Albright and Warren Christopher.

"Most of them, like the candidate they are working for, distinguished themselves" from HRC's foreign policy camp by early opposition to the Iraq war. "They also tend to be more liberal and to emphasize using the 'soft power' of diplomacy and economic aid." Still, "their positions fall well within centrist" Dem foreign policy thinking.

• Ex-Clinton African Affairs Sec/State Susan E. Rice and ex-Clinton Nat'l Security Adviser Anthony Lake will lead Obama's "core team."

• Ex-Clinton impeachment trial lawyer Gregory B. Craig, ex-Clinton Navy sec Richard J. Danzig, ex-Obama Senate foreign policy adviser Mark W. Lippert and McDonough are also part of the "core group."

• Other team members include Brookings Institution scholars Ivo H. Daalder and Philip H. Gordon.

• The group "no longer includes" Harvard human rights expert/ Pulitzer Prize Winner Samantha Power, who resigned in Mar. after she was quoted calling HRC a "monster'"

• Potential Sec/State if HRC won/ U.N. ambassador Richard Holbrooke is "not a team leader and...was not included in a 13-member 'senior working group.'"

• Obama's "infrastructure funnels hundreds of e-mail messages and reams of position papers and talking points each day to members of the core group."

• Ex-B.Clinton/George Bush Middle East Envoy Dennis Ross is "frequently asked" by Rice, Lake or McDonough "for help framing Mr. Obama's comments on Iran's nucelar program and it's potential threat to Israel."

• Obama has "been wooing" Ex-Sec/State Colin Powell, who in return has also "contributed outside advice" (Bumiller, New York Times, 7/18).

So Obama Is The Whale The Swallowed Jonah

The initial press coverage of Obama's $52M haul for June focuses on what the numbers indicate and the extend of his fundraising power:

• Although the $52M "came close to reaching the record" that Obama set in Feb by raising $55M, "the figure is on pace with, or slightly below, projections that campaign aides have set for party fundraisers" (Zeleny, New York Times, 7/18)

• Obama's camp "would not say how much of his total was raised from small donors who gave online, and official reports are not due to be filed until" 6/20. But "an examination of his campaign schedule -- which has been packed with high-dollar fundraising events -- would suggest that he relied less on Internet donors" than he has in the past (Mosk, Washington Post, 7/18).

• The June numbers suggest "Obama and his party will be able to raise the hundreds of millions that they plan to spend on the general." Univ. of CA prof Bruce Cain:" The sky is the limit. Whatever the other guy raises, you want to raise more. It's an arms race. It will be a record amount" (Morain, Los Angeles Times, 7/18).

• The new figures "underscore" Obama's status as a "fundraising star" (AP, 7/18). Univ. of MN prof Lawerence Jacobs: "He's not mortal. He's a fundraising god. It's like biblical in scale" (Gordon, McClatchy, 7/18).

• Obama's June fundraising haul comes just as he "seeks to strengthen his presence in crucial swing states." In recent weeks, the Obama camp "has built up infrastructure and boosted advertising in key states." The camp announced this week it is opening 20 offices in VA and 6 in MT (Jacoby, Wall Street Journal, 7/18).

The Prince of Tides

AP's Kuhnhenn reports, the DNC plans to "target" McCain and help Obama with an "independent ad campaign" run by veteran Dem strategist/ ex-John Edwards dep. mngr. Jonathan Prince. By law, "the effort would be prohibited from coordinating with either" Obama's camp or with the DNC. The ads would be financed with party money, however (7/18).

Auf You Go!

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's spokesperson announced 7/17 that she "will welcome" Obama to her office in Berlin 7/24 (AP, 7/18). Also, Obama is expected to deliver his speech "at the Victory Column in central Berlin, avoiding the Brandenburg Gate after a political spat broke out over plans to speak there." A "political squabble erupted after" Merkel "expressed apprehension about the gate being used for electioneering" (Donahue, Bloomberg, 7/18).

Kodak Wants In On Your Diplomatic Moments

Obama's trip "marks his first high-profile step onto the international stage, a campaign-season audition of sorts for a presidential hopeful pledging a new era in diplomacy and an end to the U.S. combat role in Iraq." Ex-Rep. Lee Hamilton (D-IN): "The stakes are very high for Obama." Hamilton said while Obama "currently leads in the polls, 'foreign policy is one area where they (voters) have their doubts' about him." The trip is "planned to put Obama into settings often occupied by presidents, including formal meetings with foreign leaders, public speeches and visits to historical sites" (AP, 7/18).

Meanwhile, McCain's camp "has been on the offensive," trying to portray Obama's "upcoming trip as nothing more than a photo-op." McCain told a town hall crowd in Kansas City: "Obama is going to Iraq. I was very interested that he articulated and announced his policies and approach to Iraq before he went, not after. Remarkable. I've been on a lot of trips around the world, usually at your expense, but I usually issue my policy statements when I get back" (Tapper/Gewargis, ABCNews.com, 7/18). The McCain camp "put out a stinging memo" 7/17 "attacking Obama for having an 'out-of-touch' position on Iraq and released a hard-hitting, seven-minute Web video showing Obama making conflicting statements about Iraq" (Campanile, New York Post, 7/18).

Mitt Romney, on the Obama camp: "I think they see it as a campaign swing more than a fact-finding tour. I think it's unfortunate that he developed this policy with regards to the surge before he was actually there to see how the surge might be progressing" ("Today," NBC, 7/18).

Al Gore, on Obama's trip to the Middle East: "I would advise him to do what he's doing, to go and listen and learn and find out what the latest facts are. I'm impressed with his command ... of these issues, and I'm impressed that he has taken the initiative to go and see for himself and learn more" ("Evening News," CBS, 7/17).

Pat Buchanan: "General Odierno and General Petraeus could, I think, try to push him to say, Look, sir, please back off a little bit this 16-month deadline. Things are going well, but we may need more time. The real opportunity, I think, is a possibility of a roaring welcome from a group of combat veterans, say in Anbar province, when he walks into the hall. A picture like that would be enormously beneficial to Barack Obama" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 7/17).

Pick Up Carmen Sandiego On The Way, Will Ya?

Philadelphia Inquirer's Eichel writes, what Obama is "to do in the coming days sounds like a no-brainer for a presumptive nominee with limited foreign-policy experience. Go overseas. Visit the troops. Drop by the Mideast. Hobnob with major European leaders. Try to avoid gaffes. Look presidential. Except that historians say no one in his position has done it before." Presidential historian Douglas Brinkley: "If Obama says he represents a new politics, he's certainly smashing an old paradigm by going. And for 10 days, he'll own the media. It's gigantic for him" (7/18).

Slate's Dickerson writes that the "press horde following Obama and the expected adoring crowds of cheering Europeans will only enhance the presidential tableau." But all "those cameras mean any substantive slip-up will be magnified" (7/17).

"Also, in the war zones where Obama might wear a protective helmet and flak jacket, there's the danger that a wayward picture might make him look ill at ease, shades of Michael Dukakis taking his infamous tank ride." Obama's being "well-received" may "delight many Americans who don't like what George Bush has done to the country's reputation," but "Obama can't look like he agrees with Europe that only he can save America from its racist, backward ways." In Iraq and Afghanistan, he may have to show that "he can listen to commanders on the ground and yet not change" his mind about the geopolitical situation there, possibly "his biggest test." Finally, "if the trip looks a little too presumptuous, voters who have doubts about his experience might wonder where he gets off acting a part they haven't given him yet" (7/17).

Politico's Simon: "Why is this trip necessary? We know why it's necessary. ... It's to persuade people that he has a knowledge of foreign affairs. It's for the good visuals. But I think he's absolutely going to absolutely avoid ... conducting any foreign policy there. For one thing, he's not the president. And he doesn't want to get pinned down. He doesn't want to green light or red light the Israelis about attacking Iran, no matter what his personal feelings may be. He wants to avoid any kind of commitments. He wants to go there to show that he's listening, to once again articulate his policies, but to not make any real news beyond that" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 7/17).

ABC's Stephanopoulos: "He's got to show he can do the job, and above all, not make any mistakes on this trip. A gaffe could be a killer for Barack Obama. In Iraq he has a special problem. ... He is going to be talking to commanders who disagree with the timeline he's set out for Iraq and somehow he's got to find a
way to show that he's listening to the commanders, but is not giving up on his principles. That will be difficulty number one. Number two, in Israel, he'll face this tricky thicket of questions about the Middle East peace process. Many presidential candidates have made mistakes on that before ("GMA," 7/18).

Air America's Maddow: "I do think that it is essentially a photo-op. I do think once you are the nominee for president of the United States when you travel abroad, everything's a photo-op. And it's not going to be that he's out there doing research in the field in order to inform his policies from the ground up. This is what candidate trips are like. It's frankly what senator trips are like, too" ("Race for the WH," MSNBC, 7/17).

Syndicated columnist Tony Blankley: "I do think it's a fair charge that it's largely a photo-op. If he was serious in going and learning about Iraq and Afghanistan, he'd go there for four or five days, not to Paris, Berlin, and the rest" ("Race for the WH," MSNBC, 7/17).

Jude Law And A Semester Abroad

The following is some commentary on Obama's European swing:

Radio talk show host Joe Madison: "It will be interesting to see what the European leaders say about him. That's going to be a big part of this. And, number two, let's not also forget, the reaction will be as much anti-Bush as it will be pro-Obama" ("Election Center," CNN, 7/17).

MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R): "I am concerned about the unprecedented political rallies that he's going to be having across Europe. It's one thing to meet with world leaders, it's another thing to be basically campaigning for president of the Europe" ("Morning Joe," MSNBC, 7/18).

Weekly Standard's Kristol: "Certainly the European part of the trip is a campaign stop. If you go to Europe and meet with the leaders of the countries, speak to the foreign policy establishment, that is traditional. Why is he giving a public speech in Germany? It is just weird. It's like a rally. Why do you have political rallies? Because you want the people there to vote for you, you want to excite them, or you want other people to see that a lot of people support you and excite them to vote for you. But speaking to a foreign audience to get Americans to vote for you? I don't think this has ever actually happened" ("Special Report," FNC, 7/17).

CSI: No Footprint Pattern Found

Today, Obama "calls climate change 'one of the greatest moral challenges of our generation,' and proposes cutting carbon emissions 80% by 2050." But as IL state senator, from '97 to '04, "he usually supported bills sought by coal interests, according to legislative records and interviews."' Obama's "record certainly suggests that environmentalists aren't going to be calling the shots in his administration without input from industry." Clean Air Watch pres. Frank O'Donnell: "He's definitely trying to straddle two politically irreconcilable objectives: taking decisive action against global warming while keeping a healthy coal industry" (Dilanian, USA Today, 7/18).

Close, But No Cigar Taxes

In the wake of Al Gore's challenge to the next president "to set an ambitious goal of obtaining all of the nation's electricity from carbon-free sources by 2018," Obama "tried to echo Gore's broad themes," but "did not directly address the speech's boldest" and "most controversial" proposal. Gore called for "a 10-year timeline for abandoning fossil fuels as a source of electricity" and a "tax on carbon dioxide production," a move "that some economists warn would heavily strain the economy." Gore: "We should tax what we burn, not what we earn." Obama, who supports a "cap-and-trade programs aimed at reducing carbon dioxide emissions gradually," appeared to "stop short of embracing Gore's proposals." Obama: "I strongly agree with Vice President Gore that we cannot drill our way to energy independence" (Garber, U.S. News and World Report, 7/17).

He's Just Not That Into You

Bill Clinton said 7/17 he is eager to campaign for Obama whenever he needs him, "but has not given any thought to whether he wants to speak" at the Dem convo in Denver. Clinton: "I told him that whenever he wanted me to do it, I was ready, and so it's basically on their timetable. He's got a lot of things to do between now and the convention, of which this is simply one, so I'll do whatever I'm asked to do, whenever I can do it" (Kugler, AP, 7/18).

CNN's Cooper: "For anyone who has ever wondered what ice sounds like when it thaws, now you know. The big chill between Bill Clinton and Obama has apparently ended" ("AC 360," 7/17).

CNN's Lothian: "It's one more step forward and away from a tough primary season" ("Situation Room," 7/17).

Time's Halperin: "This is a complicated relationship. There are three in America. Landlord/tenant, mother/daughter and Obama/Clinton. These two families in theory should be together. ... I can't tell where the ball is. President Clinton was clear yesterday. He said I'm ready. ... So it's kind of, I think, in the Obama campaign's court. They've got a lot on their mind, but I think they're underestimating the sensitivity here. The fact that the Clintons want to be treated right. He will go out, but he's got to be asked in the right way. ... That one first event is a big deal" ("American Morning," CNN, 7/18).

Summer Of Hope

Boston Globe's Lehigh writes, Obama "has used the lazy days of summer to considerable advantage with a series of speeches aimed at rooting himself in mainstream American values," such as his pre-7/4 address on patriotism in Independence, MO or his Father's Day appearance stressing "paternal responsibility." Dem strategist John Sasso: "One of the most important qualities that people look for in a president is someone who shares their values, and Obama is showing them that he does." Michael Dukakis (D): "We all learned from 1988. They are going to do everything that they can to make sure that what happened to me doesn't happen to them" (7/18).

Dick Morris Doesn't Do Primaries

Wall Street Journal's Kuhn writes, since securing the Dem nod in June, Obama "has been busy redefining himself." But his "position shifts are clumsy and ill-timed." Obama "built his franchise on the concept that he is a new kind of politician. But of late, he has become the reincarnation of Clintonian triangulation." At some point he had to move center, but too bad for Obama "he waited until it appeared politically expedient." Obama would have "been braver and shrewder if he shifted to the center on some issues months ago. As early as mid-February he had the electoral math to assure the nomination. He could have then taken one big and bold stance that would have irked and even infuriated some liberals. If he had done so, he would have remained politically alive, offered evidence he was larger than liberalism and thus improved his general election positioning. He would also look brave" (7/18).

Somebody Up There Likes Me

Though few are "predicting that Obama will wrest a majority of conservative Christian voters away from McCain," there "continues to be opportunity for Obama to pick up evangelical voters -- even according to McCain partisans." Evangelical organizer Randy Brinson: "They've researched where the votes are, and they've thrown away the old Democratic playbooks. Instead of just relying on a large number of urban votes, they're going to suburban areas and reaching out to a large number of conservatives." While Brinson concedes "there are risks to Obama's strategy," of "offending the Democratic base and left-leaning evangelicals," it is a tack that has "been making traditional conservative Christian power players," like the Family Research Council's Tony Perkins, "nervous." Perkins: "I was at a conservative evangelical church in Louisiana, and a man came up to me and asked: 'Barack Obama or John McCain -- which way are we going?'" (Halloran, U.S. News and World Report, 7/17).

I Feel Uncomfortable With This Discussion

FNC's Sean Hannity discussed Obama's recent interview with Glamour magazine.

Hannity: "Senator Barack Obama is defending his wife by attacking little old me, Sean Hannity. In an interview with Glamour magazine Senator Obama was asked how he felt about criticism of his wife. He responded, quote, 'It's infuriating, but it's not surprising because, let's face it, what happened was that the conservative press, FOX News, and the National Review, and columnists of every ilk, went fairly deliberately at her in a pretty systematic way, and treated her as the candidate in a way that you just rarely see the Democrats try to do against Republicans. And I've said this before, I would never have my campaign engage in a concerted effort to make Cindy McCain an issue, and I would not expect the Democratic National Committee or people who were allied with me to do this, because, essentially, spouses are civilians. They didn't sign up for this. They are supporting their spouse so it took a toll. If you start being subjected to rants by Sean Hannity and the like, day in and day out, that'll drive up your negatives.'

More: "So let's get this straight, Senator. Your wife campaigns for you, does public speeches, and says things like she's finally proud of her country, and that America is a downright mean country in 2008, and she
should be immune from criticism?" ("Hannity & Colmes," 7/17).

Karl Rove: "I have a certain sympathy for where Senator Obama is coming from. He's right, spouses are civilians, but if spouses get involved in the process and begin to make explicit political statements like the ones that you mentioned from Michelle Obama, they're intruding into the process. ... I think that he hyperventilated in this article. The best way to deal with this would be to be low key about it, and the best way for the issue to go away is for her not to make additional comments. ... To suggest that she has a right
to say these things and nobody has the right to be critical of her about it, is I think a step too far" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 7/17).

Geraldine Ferraro: "I happen to think it's very chivalrous. ... Barack Obama has complained about this since May, February. ... It doesn't work. But women love to hear a man defending their wife" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 7/17).

Quick, Take Shelter In Your Hamptons' House

New York Sun's Satow writes, NY tax filers reporting more than $375K "a year in earned income may end up paying nearly 60% of their wages in taxes to the government under" an Obama admin, "economists who have analyzed his plan said." Obama "is proposing not only raising the federal income tax, but also adding a Social Security tax for those Americans earning more" than $250K a year. For NYers, "that could mean that if the current Social Security rate is applied, the marginal tax rate, or rate on every extra dollar earned, could rise to 58%." AEI's Alan Viard: "This is a very eye-popping number" (7/18).

L-Shaped Blues

New York Times' Krugman writes, "Home prices are in free fall. Unemployment is rising. Consumer confidence is plumbing depths not seen since 1980. When will it all end? The answer is, probably not until 2010 or later. Barack Obama, take notice. It's true that some prognosticators still expect a 'V-shaped' recovery in which the economy springs back rapidly from its slump. On this view, any day now it will be morning in AMerica. But if the experience of the last 20 years is any guide, the prospect for the economy isn't V-shaped, it's L-ish: rather than springing back, we'll have a prolonged period of flat or at best slowly improving performance."

Obama, "if he is indeed the next president," will need to "move quickly and forcefully," meaning "another stimulus plan, bigger, better, and more sustained than the one Congress passed." It also means "passing longer-term measures to reduce economic anxiety - above all, universal health care." Should the current slump follow "the typical modern pattern, the economy will stay depressed well into 2010, if not beyond - plenty of time for the public to start blaming the new incumbent, and punish him in the midterm elections." Assuming Obama wins, "the real question is what he'll make of victory" (7/18).

Obama Camp To Start Reading Last Call! (More)

Houston Chronicle's Mason writes, the '08 campaign "has been too short of laughs, especially from McCain, who is noted on Capitol Hill for his sharp wit." Meanwhile, "Obama seems congenitally humor-impaired, his disciplined earnestness unleavened by the light touch of humor." Campaign humor "is not just about being a clown, or a joker," as "using humor effectively shows confidence."

If Obama "has said anything truly funny in the race, it has not been noted in the public record. He sometimes tells amusing stories - often the same ones - at his rallies and other appearances. But his facility for the spontaneous joke or wisecrack remains undocumented." Look at the "satirical magazine cover" by the New Yorker. "In short, a sendup of the prevailing, paranoid and untrue internet whispers about the Obamas. Funny? Apparently not. The campaign reacted with outrage" (7/17).

Wishful Thinking

New York Sun's Tyrrell writes, Obama "seems to be victimized by the bizarre. As befell Jimmy Carter years ago, perfectly commonplace phenomena suddenly haunt the candidate's campaign. A waffle appears on his breakfast plate while he is waffling. He laments the price of aruula at his upscale Whole Foods store while campaigning in rural Iowa. His speech becomes a series of gaffes, allowing us to rechristen the affable senator the gaffable senator. Soon all civilized members of the electorate begin to snicker every time the Propeht Obama steps toward a microphone -- nose raised heavenward, eyes glistening -- to pontificate on the metaphysics of 'hope,' the imminence of 'change,' and the glories of 'tomorrow' or 'the day after tomorrow' or anytime int eh future -- just get us through this god-awful vacuous speech.

"Yes, I think the Prophet Obama is in trouble. Thus members of the Obama cult within the press are striving to ever higher levels of inventiveness to maintain their oracle's exulted presence in the presidential race" (7/18).

Surging Polls

Wall Street Journal editorializes: "Barack Obama departs for Iraq as early as this weekend, with a media entourage as large as some of his rallies. He'll no doubt learn a lot, in addition to getting a good photo op. What we'll be waiting to hear is whether the would-be Commander in Chief absorbs enough to admit he was wrong about the troop surge in Iraq." Obama "has made a central basis of his candidacy the 'judgement' he showed in opposing the Iraq war," but the '07 surge debate "is the single most important strategic judgment he has had to make" as a presidential candidate. Obama "vocally opposed the surge, and events have since vindicated Mr. Bush. Without the surge and a new counterinsurgency strategy, the U.S. would have suffered a humiliating defeat in Iraq." Obama "could help his own claim to be Commander in Chief, and ease doubts about his judgment, if he admits that Mr. Bush was right" (7/18).

Hot Mic... And Fade To Black....

Ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA): "I think Jesse certainly knew better to do it. He's been on TV enough to know that when you're sitting in the studio waiting to go on, you know your mic is live. ... That tells to me there's something deeper there. ... He's not the king anymore. ... This is the most prominent black politician of the age who's no longer the most prominent black politician of the age" ("Hannity & Colmes," FNC, 7/17).

Rev. Al Sharpton: "Either it's a bad and derogatory word, or it's not. ... I grew up under Reverend Jackson. He's like 13, 14 years older. He's like a young father or brother. But I cannot condone him doing it, and then jump on rappers or jump on whites. ... If this nation can forgive people like Imus who publicly said it, I certainly think that one must offer redemption to a Reverend Jackson" ("AC 360," CNN, 7/1

  •  
  •