From The Hotline for Wednesday, July 2, 2008

CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR

A Newsom Day Is Dawning

Wed. Jul 2, 2008


San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom (D) "signed state paperwork" 7/1 making it "unofficially official" that he run for governor in 2010," when Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), barred from re-election due to term limits, steps down. Newsom's move to "form an exploratory committee" will allow him to "start building a war chest of cash in what is expected to be a highly contentious race," clearing him for fundraising "to hire a staff, conduct polling and produce mailers." Newsom chief pol consultant Eric Jaye: "This is a technical step to begin organizing a committee to he can make the decision from a position of knowledge and strength."

Newsom, a "rising star" among Dems, was "thrust" into the "national spotlight" largely over his high-profile advocacy for gay marriage, which he "authorized" within San Francisco in '04. While the SCOCA's 5/15 decision legalizing same-sex marriage statewide was the "biggest political victory of his career," some Dems said his '04 move "cost the party the White House" (Smith, San Francisco Examiner, 7/2).

Several prominent CA Dems, including Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), "blamed him for helping fuel a conservative backlash that propelled President Bush to re-election," and "some political observers speculated that he may have irrevocably doomed his chance to statewide office" with the move (AP, 7/2). Election handicapper Tony Quinn: "While California is clearly purple to blue in most state races, it's not nearly as blue as San Francisco (Barabak, Los Angeles Times, 7/2).

"Besides his reputation as a gay-marriage advocate," Newsom has "won praise and imitators in other cities for programs to get homeless people into housing" and been "lauded for his commitment to social services" (AP, 7/2). Newsom has "also pursued universal health care" for 82K uninsured SF citizens, regardless of ability to pay (Yamamura/Goldmacher, Sacramento Bee, 7/2). That policy "has drawn criticism and lawsuits from small-business owners," but SF "is the first in the country" to implement such a policy" (Los Angeles Times, 7/2). Dem consultant Bill Carrick: "He's pretty hot. Contrary to the conventional wisdom of the time, the gay marriage thing has really given him a big profile and a support base across the state" (Sacramento Bee, 7/2).

The '10 gov race "is expected to be highly competitive" with a crowded Dem field, and a general "that could cost each major party candidate upward of" $30M. Among Dems "widely considered to be preparing a run" are LG John Garamendi, '06 candidate/ex-Cont. Steve Westly, Treas. Bill Lockyer, and schools Supt. Jack O'Connell. The "very early Democratic leader according to polls," however, is AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D), who "has told supporters privately he is planning to run" (Marinucci/Wildermuth, San Francisco Chronicle, 7/2).

Brown "reported raising" over $200K 6/08 "in his re-election account," which he "recently renamed from 'Jerry Brown for Attorney General' to 'Jerry Brown 2010.'" Carrick: "He's out there. He's making it clear he's going to do it. He definitely has the best brand name in California politics" (Sacramento Bee, 7/2). Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) "has also been widely discussed as a possible candidate, although he faces re-election in 2009, which could complicate any run for higher office" (Los Angeles Times, 7/2). Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) has also been mentioned (San Francisco Examiner, 7/2).

Among the GOP, Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R) "is at the head of the pack," having given $2.5M "of his own money" against a pro-Dem 8/07 "terms limit initiative"; ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina and ex-EBay CEO Meg Whitman, both prominent John McCain surrogates, have also been "floated" (AP, 7/2).

The bid comes "amid a mayoral tenure that has seen its share of controversy," with newsom admitting to an affair with the wife of a close aide "as well as a drinking problem" (San Francisco Examiner, 7/2). Nevertheless, with the move, Newsom can now use the cmte "to solicit donations" in $24.1K "increments," and "unlike Newsom," no other Dem "has officially opened" a gov fundraising cmte (San Francisco Chronicle, 7/2).

  •  
  •