From The Hotline for Wednesday, July 2, 2008

NEW HAMPSHIRE

It's Bizzaro 2002

Wed. Jul 2, 2008


'02 nominee/ex-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) says things between her and Sen. John Sununu (R) are going to be different this time around. Shaheen: "This race is going to be about Jeanne Shaheen, but it's going to be about John Sununu [,too]. This is about what he's done - or failed to do - over the last six years." Shaheen, on '02 GOP ads that "slammed" her record on taxes and education: "There was a lot of discussion about the job I did as governor."

This time, it's Shaheen that's taking on the incumbent. Her camp "has dominated television, with introductory ads about her tenure as governor and gas prices." Early polling has shown Shaheen holding "a wide lead over her rival, lately averaging more than 11 points." In '02, Sununu used a then-popular President Bush (R) to the Granite State to "bolster his candidacy." In '08, "Sununu has shied away from the president, and Shaheen said she's 'hoping' that" Bush shows up. Shaheen: "I think this race is about the future of this country and the Senate. John Sununu wasn't running as an incumbent senator in 2002. He's running as an incumbent senator now, and incumbent senator who voted with this administration 90 percent of the time and got us to where we are today...we need a dramatic change, and we're not going to get it with somebody who votes with George Bush 90 percent of the time."

Sununu's camp "didn't dispute" the 90% figure. Spokesperson Julie Teer: "Senator Sununu has been an independent voice in the Senate and voted with New Hampshire 100 percent of the time. This election will be as much about John Sununu's record of effective leadership for New Hampshire as it will be about Jeanne Shaheen's legacy of failed leadership and higher taxes." Though central to the debate in '02, "this time around, taxes are absent as an issue" with Gov. John Lynch (D) leading state Dems to drop the idea of major new taxes.

"There's another big difference: Straight-ticket voting is no longer a ballot option" in NH. In '02, Shaheen shared the ballot with GOV nominee/"income tax proponent" Mark Fernald (D). Couple the ballot change to the removal of the tax issue and GOP strategist Rich Killion predicts "each race will be decided on its own dynamics."

Prof. Wayne Lesperance: "A referendum on Sununu isn't necessarily a losing race for Sununu - if he can play up the times where he bucked his party. If the referendum is on John Sununu, Republican Senator, soldier in George Bush's army, that kind of thing, then I think it's a bigger struggle" (Dorgan, Concord Monitor, 7/2).

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