From The Hotline for Monday, June 30, 2008

NALEO

Los Dos

Mon. Jun 30, 2008


John McCain and Barack Obama "reached out to the fastest growing voting bloc in the country" in "back-to-back speeches" 6/28, speaking before the 700 attendees of the Natl. Assn. of Latino Elected Officials at the "group's annual conference in Washington, D.C" (Tiron, The Hill, 6/28). Both candidates "had some handicaps going" in, and it is "doubtful that they altered the political playing field" with Latinos after each "spent 45 minutes making brief remarks and answering pre-arranged questions." Nevertheless, while McCain, who "probably got a better reception from this group than any other hopeful his party might have nominated," was "greeted warmly - if not wildly," Obama's "ovations were louder, longer and more frequent" (Bunis, Orange County Register, 6/28).

Immigrant Song

McCain "began his remarks by criticizing his rival for not agreeing to share the stage with him" (Goldstein, Washington Post, 6/29). McCain "has had a long relationship with Latino groups," both as a "longtime champion of immigration reform" and as senator for "heavily Hispanic" AZ, but "generally emphasized other facets of immigration reform more popular with conservatives" during the GOP primaries (Dorning, Chicago Tribune's The Swamp, 6/28).

McCain addressed 6/28 this primary season shift, with which he "disappointed some Hispanic leaders by appearing to temper his support for conservative immigration changes," assuring the NALEO conference that "fixing U.S. immigration policy would be a priority," though he admitted reform is "not popular with some members of his own party" (Clark, Miami Herald, 6/29). McCain's comments focused on doing "some fence-mending when it came to the issue of immigration," and his comments on "the immigration issue" earned him "enthusiastic applause" (Orange County Register, 6/28). McCain: "It'll be my top priority yesterday, today and tomorrow. We must also understand that there are 12 million people who are here, and they're here illegally and they are God's children" (The Hill, 6/28).

During the primaries, McCain "reversed course" on the issue "after politically suffering" for his support of a reform package "that critics derided as 'amnesty,'" even saying he "would oppose his own legislation if it were to be voted on again." McCain noted 6/28 "that his position 'wasn't very popular...with some in my party,'" and said that, "in remarks that could inflame those Republican border hawks," he would "not just seek to secure the border first, as he promised in the primary." McCain: "We have to secure our borders - that's the message. But we also must proceed with a temporary worker program that is verifiable and truly temporary" (Adler/Martinez/Martin, Politico, 6/29). McCain ultimately called for "a method for immigrants living in the United States illegally to become citizens, in addition to strengthening security measures" (Washington Post, 6/29).

McCain nevertheless "struggled to get through his opening remarks" as "three individuals interrupted his speech with shouted denunciations" four times, referencing McCain's Iraq War support. While McCain "reacted with good cheer the first time," with the audience coming to "drown her out with cheers and claps," McCain "was less amused the second time," with the "final interruption" precipitating the candidate "somewhat awkwardly" wrapping up his remarks "with a clipped 'thank you.'" NALEO exec. dir. Arturo Vargas "expressed his embarrassment," saying "our apologies, Senator" (Martin, Politico, 6/28). To applause, McCain: "The one thing Americans want us to stop doing is yelling at each other" (Simon, Los Angeles Times, 6/29).

Un Contesador Ha Entrado!

Obama, who took to the stage after McCain, began his remarks "seeking to assure the group that he was no stranger to Hispanics," citing his "work with immigrants as a community organizer, civil rights attorney and senator." In an "off-the-text remark," Obama mentioned a "wonderful conversation" he had "a couple of days ago with some Hispanic leaders who had been great supporters" of Hillary Clinton, among them ex-Clinton HUD Secretary/ex-San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisneros (D) (Politico, 6/29). Obama also "sought to connect with the audience by saying that he hoped the first Latino nominee was somewhere in the audience" The Hill, 6/28). Thereafter, Obama "struck a more confrontational tone," targeting "what he called McCain's 'vacillation' on the issue" of immigration reform (Orange County Register, 6/28).

As Obama and McCain's views on immigration "overlap to some degree," Obama accused McCain of "retreating from a comprehensive overhaul of immigration laws" (Washington Post, 6/29). Obama, "who has been dogged by his own shifts to the middle," wasted little time "in reminding the audience of McCain's political pivot," to a "loud ovation that included a chant of his last name." Obama: "He was a champion of comprehensive reform, and I admired him for it. But what he didn't mention is that when he was running for his party's nomination, he walked away from that commitment" (Politico, 6/29). Obama further accused McCain "of shifting positions to suit his audience," reminding the conference McCain "wouldn't even support his own legislation" (Los Angeles Times, 6/29). McCain made that comment at a 1/30 debate, saying "the people want the border secured first" (Chicago Tribune's The Swamp, 6/28).

Obama's support "was a lot more palpable" than McCain's, "with standing ovations and cheering during his speech," and Obama, says New Dem Network VP Andres Ramirez, is "receiving a lot of support from Hispanics because they are upset at Republicans over immigration and the state of the economy" (The Hill, 6/28). As "evidenced by Obama's attack," Dems "intend to make the case to Hispanics that McCain softened his stance on immigration-related issues" under GOP pressure. Dems cite the failed reform package and the DREAM Act, a bill "McCain was originally the co-sponsor of" that would "allow high-achieving" illegal immigrant students "to gain legal status" by attending college or serving in the armed forces. McCain said he "had come to oppose the bill" last fall; Rep. Joe Baca (D-CA): "First he was with us, but then he abandoned not only the immigration bill but the DREAM Act. Once the public understands (McCain is) a flip-flopper, the mirage is going to go away" (Politico, 6/29).

Obama nevertheless faces "minefields" with Hispanic voters, albeit ones that "are more subtle" than McCain's. Obama "has to overcome the loyalty" Hispanics showed for HRC, and must "get past a more delicate issue that was an undercurrent" at the conference, regarding the "inherent tensions between the Latino and African-American communities." Santa Ana councilor Michele Martinez (D) said "older Hispanics are less likely to accept an African-American," an "issue for the older generation" that doesn't "have much to do with actual issues," but with "a skin color thing" Orange County Register, 6/28). Obama field dir. Temo Figueroa said he "was hoping to hire some of those in attendance," with the goal of bringing on "about 500 Latinos as part of" a 2K-pls "staffer regiment being deployed to key states" (Politico, 6/29).

Shoot That Poison Out

The McCain camp quickly "shot back at Obama's characterization" of the reform bill's collapse 6/28 (Washington Post, 6/29). McCain spokesperson Brian Rogers wrote it was "quite audacious" for Obama to "question" McCain's "commitment to immigration reform when it was Obama himself who worked to kill the Senate's bipartisan immigration reform compromise," a torpedoing "strongly opposed" by bill co-sponsor Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA). Rogers: "Obama voted for five 'poison pill' amendments designed by special interests to kill the immigration reform deal" (release, 6/28).

The Obama camp responded with "a statement McCain made on the Senate floor just before the final vote," in which McCain "commended Obama for 'working to ensure this bill moved successfully intact through the legislative process" (Chicago Tribune's The Swamp, 6/28). The campaign also released a pair of statements 6/28 arguing McCain "gave two different answers reflecting polar opposite positions" regarding immigration reform before the NALEO. DNC comms director Karen Finney: "McCain's promise to vote against his own comprehensive immigration reform bill is yet another example of his election year conversions on the critical issues facing our country" (release, 6/28).

Orange County Register's Bunis writes: While Obama "was among" a group of Dems "who carried the water for organized labor during the debate," saying Obama "worked to 'kill' the bill" is "not exactly" true. The package "was hanging on by a thread from the beginning and it's a stretch to say that Obama's votes doomed him. For the GOP, however, "while McCain did co-author the broad bill," when the package was "being debated on the floor and Kennedy was holed up in closed-door sessions," McCain was "nowhere to be found" (6/28).

November Surprise

A 6/08 NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found Obama "leading McCain 62% to 28% among Latinos nationally." McCain adviser Ana Navarro: "The reality is that the majority of Latinos are Democrats or lean Democratic. Polls are nothing but a snapshot in time. We have four months to brand McCain" (Politico, 6/29).

ABC News pollster Gary Langer writes: "There are some misperceptions about the Hispanic vote worth knowing. First is the notion that George W. Bush did vastly better than usual among Hispanics, and that this might herald a broader Republican trend in this group." While the '04 natl exit poll had Hispanics favoring John Kerry over Bush by 55%-44%, "a much closer margin than usual," with a "bigger and better data source" which "combines the national and state exit polls in a huge 'cross-survey,'" Kerry won Hispanics by "an 18-point margin." And in '06, Hispanics favored Dems "in a national House vote by a whopping 69-30%." Obama's current 71% Hispanic support "might be a surprise," but it is "essentially the same as their House vote in '06" (ABCNews.com, 6/28).

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