From The Hotline for Wednesday, May 21, 2008

OBAMA

Standing On The Brink

Wed. May 21, 2008


Barack Obama returned to IA 5/20 to "commemorate" his "first and most important victory" on a night when he secured a majority of pledged delegates, "a symbolic benchmark" representing the camp's view that Obama "has secured a virtual lock" on the Dem nod (Murray, Washington Post, 5/21). With the results from OR and KY, Obama "moved to within 100" of the 2,026 delegates needed to "clinch" the nod (AP, 5/20).

Obama "all but declared victory" even as Hillary Clinton "buried him" in KY, "a juxtaposition that placed" Obama's "great strengths and electoral weaknesses on dramatic display" (Smith/Brown, Politico, 5/21).

"Undeterred by a lopsided" result, Obama declared the Dem nod "within reach" (Berman, New York Sun, 5/21), in an event that had "all the appearances of a victory party" (Mitchell, Chicago Sun-Times, 5/21). Obama: "We have returned to Iowa with a majority of delegates elected by the American people and you have put us within reach of the Democratic nomination for president of the United States of America" (Glover, AP, 5/20).

Before a crowd estimated at 7K, Obama "credited caucusgoers for putting him on the path that neared its finish" 5/20 (Beaumont, Des Moines Register, 5/20). Obama: "In the darkest daysof this campaign, when we were dismissed by all the polls and all the pundits, I would come to Iowa and see that there was something happening here that the world did not yet understand" (Washington Post, 5/21).

Obama used the OR and KY results "to move into a new phase" of the campaign, which includes the challenges of bringing Clinton's supporters into his camp, winning over "working-class whites, Hispanics and Jews," and "fending off attacks" from John McCain "especially on national security" (Nagourney/Zeleny, New York Times, 5/21).

Obama offered "lavish praise" for Clinton, saying, "Senator Clinton has shattered myths and broken barriers and changed the America in which my daughters and your daughters will come of age, and for that we are grateful to her" (New York Times, 5/21). Obama said Clinton is "one of the most formidable candidates to ever run for the office" (AP, 5/20).

Obama said voters in Nov. will be asked to decide whether the country "will keep doing what we've been doing for four more years, or whether we will take a different path" (Schouten, USA Today, 5/21). Obama: "This year's Republican primary was a contest to see which candidate could out-Bush the other, and that is the contest John McCain won" (Washington Post, 5/21).

Obama, on the campaign ahead: "They will play off our fears and our doubts and our divisions to distract us from what matters to you. Well, they can take the low road if they want, but it will not lead this country to a better place. And it will not work in this election It won't work because you won't let it" (AP, 5/20).

(For more on the 5/20 primaries in OR and KY, see today's RESULTS section).

UMWA For BHO

AP reports that the United Mine Workers of America will endorse Obama. The union's exec bd voted unanimously for an endorsement of Obama on 5/21 a.m., said a union official speaking on condition of anonymity. The official would not speak on the record because an announcement has not been made yet (5/21).

Shhhh, We're Staging A Coup

CBS' Ververs: "Wherever the mathematical calculations fall in the end, Obama made it more crystal clear than ever that his focus is now on running a general election campaign" (CBSNews.com, 5/21).

Obama "is quietly planning to take over" the DNC "and assemble a multistate team for the general election," with top Obama organizer Paul Tewes "in discussions to run the party," several Dem officials said 5/20. Obama's camp "also is in discussions with staffers who will be dispatched to various swing states, but holding off on making announcements until Obama has won" the Dem nod. Obama spokesperson Bill Burton "said no final decisions have been made" on general election plans, "and that such decisions would be premature" (Pickler, AP, 5/20).

At Obama HQ, "senior staff members now spend their time planning how to retool the campaign for the contest against McCain, expanding such key departments as field, research, policy and communications. They speculate about potential" VP contenders, "although that process has not yet started. And they debate how Obama will spend June and July, with a foreign trip one possibility, along with return trips to such battleground states" as PA, FL and MI (Washington Post, 5/21).

Coffer It Up

Obama's camp announced it raised $31.3M in primary funds in Apr. The camp has $37.3M CoH for the primary and $9.2M CoH for the general. The camp reports 200K new donors in Apr., for a total of 1.475M donors to date. The average donation was $91 (release, 5/20).

Order In The Courtney

"Though he had said he was going to wait until the last of the primaries was over," Rep. Joe Courtney (D-CT) endorsed Obama this a.m. Courtney's "was the only district" in CT that was won, "in a narrow margin," by Clinton (Hamilton, Hartford Courant blog, 5/21).

Coast-ing To Victory

With a three-day FL swing that kicks off today, Obama "begins his effort to organize his way to victory" in Nov. "In recent days," the Obama camp "has shifted as many as 15" staffers to FL, "launching a massive voter registration drive targeting young people and African Americans." Obama "hopes to draw" about 20K supporters to a rally today in Tampa, and he will also "court the fast-growing Puerto Rican community in suburban Orlando." Later in the week, "he will hold a town hall meeting at a synagogue, talking with seniors and Jews, two groups that have been Clinton's base." And on 5/23, Obama "takes the unusual step of addressing the Cuban American National Foundation, the most prominent group in an exile community that for decades has aligned itself" with GOPers.

The camp's FL efforts "are being replicated nationally, with staff being dispatched" to MI and OH, and a nat'l voter registration drive that uses the same "microtargeting" techniques to enlarge "the pool of voters who turn out" in Nov. Meanwhile, "showing that he has a plan to compete" in FL also addresses "a shorter-term concern" for superdelegates (Wallsten, Los Angeles Times, 5/21).

Obama meets with voters in Kissimmee's Puerto Rican community today, "in his first direct attempt to reach out to Florida Hispanics" since last June's candidate forum. "To woo Hispanics, Obama will have to overcome the skepticism of leaders, activists and voters" in FL "who already have aligned themselves" with Clinton (Ramos, Orlando Sentinel, 5/21). McCain is also "a proven vote-getter" among Hispanics.

Also in FL, "many Clinton supporters remain genuinely livid about Obama refusing to acknowledge votes" from FL's "disputed primary." And Dems lose FL "when they get crushed" in North FL, "and so far there's little sign of enthusiasm" for Obama or Clinton "among white Panhandle voters" (Smith, St. Petersburg Times, 5/20).

Obamamania, Stronger Than The Magic Wall?

Prior to KY and OR being called, Obama appeared on the "Situation Room." Some highlights:

Obama, asked about McCain's "serious charges" against his strategy in dealing with Cuba: "First of all, his charges aren't serious. That's the problem. I have never said that I was prepared to immediately normalize relations with Cuba. The only person who has flip-flopped on this issue is John McCain, who, in 2000, said that he would be prepared to start normalizing relations, even if a whole host of steps had not yet been taken. That is a reversal from the position he is taking now. ... John McCain keeps on making these statements that simply aren't based on anything I have said."

More: "John McCain essentially wants to continue George Bush's policies of not talking to leaders we don't like and not talking to countries we don't like. It has been a failed policy. Iran is stronger now than when George Bush took office, partly because he engaged in a war in Iraq that John McCain facilitated that has strengthened Iran. The fact that we haven't talked to them has not had them stand down on nuclear weapons. It hasn't led them to stop funding Hamas and Hezbollah. It hasn't stopped them from threatening Israel. And, so, what I have said is, we should open up direct talks."

CNN's Blitzer: "There seems to be some confusion whether you would be willing, personally, as president, to sit down, without preconditions, with Ahmadinejad of Iran or other Iranian leaders. Is your openness to a meeting with Iranian leaders inclusive of Ahmadinejad?"

Obama: "You know, I think this obsession with Ahmadinejad is an example of us losing track of what's important. I would be willing to meet with Iranian leaders if we had done sufficient preparation for that meeting. Whether Ahmadinejad is the right person to meet with right now, we don't even know ... how much power he is going to have a year from now. He is not the most powerful person in Iran. And my expectation, obviously, would be to meet with those people who can actually make decisions" (CNN, 5/20).

Obama also talked about Sen. Ted Kennedy's (D-MA) recent diagnosis. See today's PEOPLE section for more.

Oh, Yepsen, How We've Missed You

Consensus was, Obama's election night speech 5/20 was all about the general election. Among the reactions:

• Obama "appeared to be" hitting the "reset" button with his IA speech. IA "is also a state Obama's team believes will be competitive in the fall, so it offered a fitting backdrop from which to blast away" at McCain (Wolffe, Newsweek.com, 5/21).

• "Obama's speech was, without a doubt, a general election speech." Also 5/20, Obama "aides invited former backers" of John Edwards to meet with Obama before the speech, and IA Dem Chair Scott Brennan announced his endorsement (Madden, Salon, 5/21). Brennan: "Barack Obama spent nearly a year campaigning here prior to the caucuses. He built one ofthe strongest grassroots organizations we've ever seen in the state, and Iowans know and like Barack Obama" (Eby, Ames Tribune, 5/20).

• Des Moines Register's Yepsen writes, "Revving up the Democratic machinery was the most important thing Obama accomplished in Iowa. ... As a result of the caucuses, Obama is in a better position" in swing-state IA "than McCain." And "by reaching out to Clinton, Obama starts to graft" the Dems' organizations there together. Obama also "needed to remind the nation's political community that he, too, can win white rural votes" (5/21).

• Ex-WH adviser David Gergen: "This was not his best speech, but it was high up. ... I wondered why he was going to Iowa. It just seemed peculiar, if he wasn't going to declare a victory there. I think the first part of the speech he was very, very effective at reconnecting on the values question. He used Iowa as a place to say the values of Iowa are the values I share. ... But the heart of the speech then came when he did begin to frame the general campaign. And he's clearly taking the message of change, which he's used in the primaries, and now applying it to John McCain" ("AC 360," CNN, 5/20).

• Clinton supporter/Dem strategist Paul Begala: "By my count, 14 times in this speech, he used the word 'change.' Seven times he used the word 'McCain.' Five times he used the word 'Bush.' He's framing this up exactly right for Democrats in a time of change. ... He's putting some more meat on the bones. ... Very accessible speech, and yet still very passionate. He didn't lose any of the inspirational ability that he showed throughout this campaign. I'd give him an 'A' plus. This is as good a political speech as I've heard in a long time" ("AC 360," CNN, 5/20).

• GOP strategist Alex Castellanos: "The way you bring people together is you lead. And tonight, I thought Barack Obama did a pretty darn good job of that. He didn't speak to just Democrats, he spoke to Republicans. ... I thought he gave a speech tonight that was very inclusive, very broad, very Republican as well as Democrat. Pretty strong general election speech" ("Election Center," CNN, 5/20).

• CNN's Malveaux: "We did hear some things we hadn't heard from Barack Obama, essentially saying [Clinton] had shattered the barriers and the myths that this paved the way for his own daughters. And that was really something, a way to reach out to her in a very, very personal way" ("LKL," 5/20).

• CQ's Crawford: "I think he moved the ball forward with that speech as much as the votes. ... He got a lot done in that speech. He went as far as he could to claim the nomination, saying he's within reach" ("Morning Joe," MSNBC, 5/21).

My Head Is Spinning

Obama strategist David Axelrod said 5/20 before Obama's speech that winning a pledged delegate majority is "a big deal." Obama comm. dir. Robert Gibbs said it would be "an important marker" for superdelegates. Asked when the camp would declare victory, Axelrod said when "the process is over on June 3rd, I think we're gonna be in a position to say that."

Axelrod also "offered Clinton congratulations" on her KY win, and said: "I know Sen. Clinton well. I think she cares about the Democratic Party. I think she cares about this country. I think she understands how desperately we need change in this country and I believe that we're gonna be a unified party and she's gonna be part of that unity when this process ends" (Jones, NBC/National Journal, 5/20).

Obama's camp also sent out an email to supporters saying it's "won an absolute majority of all the delegates chosen by the people." Obama writes: "We still have work to do in the remaining states, where we will compete for every delegate available. But tonight, I want to thank you for everything you have done to take us this far -- farther than anyone predicted, expected, or even believed possible" (Hotline sources, 5/20).

What Do Delegates Mean To You?

• NBC's Russert, on Obama gaining the majority of pledged delegates: "Superdelegates would now have to say, 'You know what, delegates, you made your decision, your choice, but we're, in effect, going to overrule you.' I cannot find a superdelegate who wants to do that" ("Today," 5/21).

• CBS' Greenfield: "As we know now, Obama is all but the certain nominee of this party. Why? Because his team understood the rules of the game and focused on caucus states, where his huge majorities gave him more net delegates than did Clinton's wins in many big states" ("Early Show," 5/21).

• Slate's Dickerson writes, "If Obama can't push Clinton directly, he can continue to get superdelegates to do his work for him. Several have said they will vote with the candidate who has won the majority of pledged delegates. He can encourage them to make good on that promise." He can also argue "that he would be in a stronger position to continue his foreign-policy battle with McCain if he had the full weight of the party behind him" (5/20).

• ABC's Stephanopoulos: "The Democratic Party has never denied the nomination to the person who won the most pledged delegates in all the contests, and the superdelegates are not going to do that for the first time with the first African-American candidate to reach that milestone. There would be a revolution. ... Unless some kind of lightning strikes, Barack Obama is the nominee" ("GMA," ABC, 5/21).

• Obama supporter/Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), on Obama gaining the majority of pledged delegates: "I just see this as a major step. It's not the end. ... This was about delegates, the number of delegates, from both voters in primary states and in caucus states. And the fact that a come-from-behind candidacy was able to achieve this tonight, I think it's significant. But, as has been pointed out, it's not the end. We have a few more weeks to go here" (MSNBC, 5/20).

• Bill Richardson, asked what the race will look like as of 6/4: "I think that it's going to be very clear that Senator Obama will have achieved the 72 remaining delegates. ... What you're seeing is Democrats uniting around Senator Obama" ("American Morning," CNN, 5/21).

A Post-Mortem Tale Of Two Contests

CNN's Schneider: "There were two big reasons why Barack Obama carried the state of Oregon. One, education. Oregon Democrats have a lot of that. Those who did not go to college voted for Hillary Clinton. ... Second factor, religion. In this case, they do not have a lot of that. Protestant voters were split. Catholic voters were split. The key to Obama's victory were voters who said they do not have any religion or they have some other religion other than Protestant or Catholic or Mormon or Muslim or Jewish" ("Election Center," 5/20).

Ex-WH press. sec. Dee Dee Myers, asked if Obama's KY loss is problematic for him: "Absolutely. He didn't campaign very hard in Kentucky, and I think in hindsight, that was a bit of mistake. He should have gone there. He was always going to lose, but he should have gone there and said, you may not love me, but I'm going to ask [for] your vote anyway. ... Down the road I think it would have been beneficial to him to show a little more energy in those areas he's not doing very well" ("American Morning," CNN, 5/21).

Polenta = Grits, Who Knew?

Richardson: "Senator Obama has shown consistent improvement with white, working-class voters. He won 80% of the white vote in Oregon yesterday" ("Morning Joe," MSNBC, 5/21).

DLC chair/'06 TN SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D), on how Obama courts rural white voters: "Roll up the sleeves and say, look, I'm going to need you in the fall. Because if you want change, I'm your best chance to change the direction of this country, when it comes to foreign policy, gas prices, food prices and the host of challenges and concerns people are having in Kentucky" (MSNBC, 5/20).

Rep. Ben Jones (D-GA), on Obama needing to reach out to rural voters: "He's probably been eating grits all these years and calling it polenta, you know what I mean? ... He's a good-hearted person, and 99.9% of the people in Appalachia are real, good-hearted people, too. And when they get to know him, and they have five months to do that and listen to him, he's going to win those folks over, and in a big way" ("American Morning," CNN, 5/21).

Too Soon?

New York Daily News' Lewis writes, "it's not too early to ponder what an Obama nomination would mean. The nomination of America's first black major-party candidate will reflect the triumph of some of the most powerful social movements in the last century" (5/21).

Columbia State's Washington writes, Obama's supporters "are careful in how they describe this moment. But its historic significance can hardly be overstated" (5/21).

At Least It's Not The Day Before June 3

Rev. Jeremiah Wright "returns to Detroit in two weeks to speak at a prayer service" 6/4 "and a business expo" that runs 6/6-6/8. Int'l Detroit Black Expo pres. Kenneth Harris said when Wright speaks at Fellowship Chapel 6/4, "His message will be purely economic and will be delivered toward the business- and faith-based demographic" (Brand-Williams, Detroit News, 5/21).

We're Engaged

Obama's foreign policy debate with Bush and McCan continued to spark discussion:

• Richardson, asked whether Obama is making himself vulnerable to GOP attacks by saying he'll meet with Middle East leaders without precondition but not unconditionally: "No, it isn't, because what Senator Obama is saying is that what is important here is negotiation, dialogue, and diplomacy. ... I remember him at the debates, that you meet with leaders of North Korea, of Syria, of Iran, but you have a diplomatic plan before. You don't go just to have a meeting, but you don't say we're never going to meet" ("American Morning," CNN, 5/21).

• Rudy Giuliani, asked how he defines "preconditions": "Not having preconditions is doing what Barack Obama wants to do. ... This is absurd. ... Every American president has negotiated, but always with very severe preconditions. Things that have to be met, and with certain terrorists, maybe you don't negotiate at all. But certainly, if you're negotiating with your enemies, there have to be preconditions on the table."

• Giuliani, asked about Obama's experience with regards to foreign policy: "I think Hillary Clinton's comments [about foreign policy] really display the difference between experience and lack of experience, and I think [McCain] is also illustrating that, that Senator Obama really has very little experience in the area of foreign policy, foreign affairs, and his instincts seem to be wrong" ("American Morning," CNN, 5/21).

• Dallas Morning News' Davis writes, while Obama "probably won a few more superdelegates by rising up to taunt" Bush and McCain, "the short-term benefit will soon give way to a long-term problem. ... There is a reason Mr. Obama and his party are perceived as soft on terror. It's because they are" (5/21).

• Clarence Page writes, Obama's camp "must deal with foreign policy sooner or later. For Obama, it's best to do it now, with months to go before the election, especially when President Bush so willingly offers up the opportunity" (Chicago Tribune, 5/21).

• New York Post's Taheri writes, "Obama's words on preconditions have helped ease domestic pressure" on Iranian Pres. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to comply with the United Nations and the IAEA" (5/21).

• Ex-Henry Kissinger research assist. K.T. McFarland writes in the New York Daily News, on negotiation, "The question is who, when and how. We all have the right -- indeed, the obligation -- to ask exactly what leverage a President Obama would carry with him to the negotiating table, and how he plans to get it" (5/21).

To Better Know A Delegate

An ex-Army chaplain at Guantanamo Bay "who was cleared of spy accusations" will be a delegate pledged to Obama at the Dem Convo from WA. Ex-Capt. James Yee, "a Muslim," was elected 5/17. Yee, a West Point grad, was accused in '03 "of being part of a spy ring." After "spending 76 days in solitary confinement," Yee "was exonerated, resigned from the Army and received an honorable discharge" (AP, 5/20).

Female Troubles?

Obama bundler Lenore Blitz "is picking up on what she considers a disturbing vibe among" Dem women in the NY business community: Clinton supporters "are considering voting for John McCain over Obama." Blitz: "There is not a great deal of enthusiasm for Barack Obama and some are considering voting for McCain, others are saying let's wait and see, we don't know him yet." Blitz said one of the issues "is that some women feel there aren't enough women in the leadership" of Obama's camp (Horowitz, "The Politicker," New York Observer, 5/20).

Kathleen Parker writes, "Hard-core feminists who switched allegiances" from Clinton to Obama "must have had to Botox their faces to keep their eyes from rolling out of their sockets upon hearing 'lay off my wife,'" Obama's response to the TN GOP's Web ad questioning M. Obama's patriotism. "They were already in fetal recoil from Obama's earlier 'sweetie,' offered to a female reporter" in Detroit (Detroit News, 5/21).

Meanwhile, New York Post's Powers writes, the more Clinton "feeds the anger that she has been mistreated because she's a woman, the worse it gets for Obama" (5/21).

How Sweet It Is

"At some point in 1999," when then-state Sen. Obama was considering running for higher office, he did "what everyone does when they're in a tough race: introduce themselves" to Chicago Sun-Times Washing bureau chief Lynn Sweet, now the "go-to Obama stop" for news. Sweet: "When he walked in, the first thing he did was hand me this book. ... he hands me his book and says, 'This is my story.' And I said, 'Oooh. Okay?'" Sweet "didn't start leafing through" the copy of "Dreams From My Father" until June '04.

Sweet, on covering Obama: "I'm one of the people who have been paying close attention in a very close way on a day-to-day level for a long, long time and I come from the same area. I know his neighborhood, I know his neighbors, I know the political context that he came from, and that's useful to covering him at this stage. That's part of understanding the whole picture."

More Sweet: "I don't write a story saying how Obama came out of the rough-and-tumble of Chicago politics. Because in my experience, he was able to avoid the rough-and-tumble of Chicago politics. ... Obama came in and had a very lucky break to come in in 90-something, make some of the right connections, and have an opening. He returned to Chicago and worked with a law firm that gave him a lot of political network advantages, and started looking around for some office to run for, found this opening in the State Senate where he put himself in it. Now that's not coming through the rough-and-tough of Chicago politics. And then once he knocked his opponent off the ballot, he represented a safe Democratic district, and that if he chose to, he could have represented until he stopped working" (Koblin, New York Observer, 5/1).

Meanwhile, Sweet notes Obama foreign policy adviser Tony Lake is profiled in the new issue of Moment Magazine. The article "touches on Israel, Jewish-black relations and Lake's own religious journey," as well as his "conversion" from being a Clinton WH adviser to a member of Obama's inner circle (Chicago Sun-Times blog, 5/20).

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